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Wednesday Severe Threat
As of the 11:30 update the SPC left the threat level as slight. Models have trended towards a slightly weaker system the last couple of runs. That said, the afternoon and overnight might tend back stronger so enhanced is still not out of the question. The HRRR is still showing discrete cell formation but the NAM3k is more of a multicellular mode which goes along with the weakening trend. That said, any discrete cells that can form and maintain themselves will carry a tornado threat. There could be a morning and afternoon round of storms. Depending on the amount of morning storms, the afternoon round may be dampened some if the morning round can stabilize the atmosphere. But if the morning round is sparse and we get some breaks in the clouds then the afternoon/evening storms could be more potent. Main threat area for MS, I believe, will be east of I-55 and north of I-20 for the afternoon round and more the northern 1/3 of the state for the morning round.
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