Wednesday Severe Threat

[starkvegasdawg]

Weather forecast for Saturday High 74 Low 25. That is a definite recipe for Tornadoes.

What is not in question is shear and instability. We will have plenty of both. What is potentially lacking are strong lapse rates (rate at which the atmosphere cools with altitude) and forcing (air rising at a faster rate than normal thermal buoyancy). The main dynamics of this system will be displaced north of the area. That's what's causing the question mark of whether or not supercells can form and sustain themselves. If they do, then they will be in an environment of ample shear to rotate and possibly go tornadic. One good thing is with the smaller lapse rates hail should not be a major concern tomorrow. The strongest storms should only be capable of 1" hail at the most.

[Liverpooldawg]

What is not in question is shear and instability. We will have plenty of both. What is potentially lacking are strong lapse rates (rate at which the atmosphere cools with altitude) and forcing (air rising at a faster rate than normal thermal buoyancy). The main dynamics of this system will be displaced north of the area. That's what's causing the question mark of whether or not supercells can form and sustain themselves. If they do, then they will be in an environment of ample shear to rotate and possibly go tornadic. One good thing is with the smaller lapse rates hail should not be a major concern tomorrow. The strongest storms should only be capable of 1" hail at the most.

Hopefully it fizzles. After seeing Smithville a few days afterward, I hope there is never another tornado anywhere.