Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 56

Thread: Hesitant to post this early as confidence very low

  1. #1
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Eye of the Storm
    Posts
    22,748
    vCash
    3275

    Hesitant to post this early as confidence very low

    But due to the timing I am. Last few days the GFS has been pretty consistent showing at least a marginal severe threat for New Year's Eve. I'm still pretty skeptical but when it gets as warm as it's going to get the next few days here in late December that usually comes at a cost. There's also hints at a pattern shift and cold weather coming in and when you go from record warmth to cold that also can hint at severe weather. Please, don't cancel any plans but just keep this tucked away in the back of your mind.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Maroonthirteen's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    6,007
    vCash
    4388
    Yeah, almost 80 degrees on Christmas Day..... I was wondering when the other shoe would drop.

    Please please stay warm and dry through the Liberty bowl day.

  3. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2021
    Posts
    78
    vCash
    3000
    I always appreciate the heads-up you provide. Thank you and Merry Christmas.

  4. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    73
    vCash
    3200

    Week 2 of GFS has been bringing up storms from Tejas/GoM from middle of Oct

    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    But due to the timing I am. Last few days the GFS has been pretty consistent showing at least a marginal severe threat for New Year's Eve. I'm still pretty skeptical but when it gets as warm as it's going to get the next few days here in late December that usually comes at a cost. There's also hints at a pattern shift and cold weather coming in and when you go from record warmth to cold that also can hint at severe weather. Please, don't cancel any plans but just keep this tucked away in the back of your mind.
    and slowing down progressive weather. Don't think its panned out 1x

  5. #5
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Eye of the Storm
    Posts
    22,748
    vCash
    3275
    Here is the latest discussion from the SPC regarding middle to late week next week:

    ...Beyond Day 6...
    The chances for more significant severe weather will increase beyond Day 6. Most guidance suggests 70 degree dewpoints across the entire Gulf of Mexico by D6/Tue. This is anomalously high Gulf moisture content for this time of year and will set the stage for severe weather potential. The exact magnitude of any severe weather threat will depend on the evolution of the upper-level and surface pattern, but with a broad warm sector in place across the Southeast and mid-Mississippi Valley it is more likely than not that there will eventually be a severe weather episode somewhere from the Southeast into the Midwest/Great Lakes.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Turfdawg67's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    4,860
    vCash
    3100
    But has PHGdawg gone out and looked at the sky? We need his second opinion. ***

  7. #7
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    214
    vCash
    3200

    Don?t apologize. This is no earlier than TAM deciding they can?t play the gator bowl

    Quote Originally Posted by Turfdawg67 View Post
    But has PHGdawg gone out and looked at the sky? We need his second opinion. ***
    ?due to COVID?
    Thanks for the heads up

  8. #8
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    3,548
    vCash
    3670
    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    But due to the timing I am. Last few days the GFS has been pretty consistent showing at least a marginal severe threat for New Year's Eve. I'm still pretty skeptical but when it gets as warm as it's going to get the next few days here in late December that usually comes at a cost. There's also hints at a pattern shift and cold weather coming in and when you go from record warmth to cold that also can hint at severe weather. Please, don't cancel any plans but just keep this tucked away in the back of your mind.
    Please go away until June...I just got back from Kentucky! Would you be interested in a one-way ticket to Afghanistan for the winter. JUST sayin

  9. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Posts
    4,874
    vCash
    3828
    Quote Originally Posted by 99jc View Post
    Please go away until June...I just got back from Kentucky! Would you be interested in a one-way ticket to Afghanistan for the winter. JUST sayin
    Glad you back for Christmas!!

  10. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    1,126
    vCash
    3100
    We desperately need rain and cold weather. But.....

  11. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Posts
    11,943
    vCash
    427176943
    GFS has been pretty consistent about the strong storms along the Miss/Tenn border. The jet stream looks like it goes bottoms out around Vicksburg and the jet goes up along the River.

  12. #12
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Eye of the Storm
    Posts
    22,748
    vCash
    3275
    And here we go. SPC has now outlined a severe threat for next Wednesday. Still too early to know exact threat levels. Currently, the Euro is trending towards a more significant threat while the gfs is a more subdued threat. Usually, my money is on the euro but that is to be determined.

    Last edited by starkvegasdawg; 12-25-2021 at 06:52 AM.

  13. #13
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Posts
    11,943
    vCash
    427176943
    Latest GFS has the main severe threat to the north along the Tenn KY border area. Of course subject to change in 6 hrs.

  14. #14
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    143
    vCash
    3100
    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    And here we go. SPC has now outlined a severe threat for next Wednesday. Still too early to know exact threat levels. Currently, the Euro is trending towards a more significant threat while the gfs is a more subdued threat. Usually, my money is on the euro but that is to be determined.

    I'm far more interested in New Year's weekend.

  15. #15
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Eye of the Storm
    Posts
    22,748
    vCash
    3275
    Quote Originally Posted by ArrowDawg View Post
    I'm far more interested in New Year's weekend.
    Yeah, that's looking like it has potential, too. Just taking them one at a time.

  16. #16
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    1,126
    vCash
    3100
    I just want some cold weather, because the duck hunting currently sucks.

  17. #17
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Eye of the Storm
    Posts
    22,748
    vCash
    3275
    In addition to the severe threat Wednesday, SPC has now also mentioned the possibility of a significant severe weather threat next weekend. There's still some differences among the models so they haven't outlined a threat area yet, but expect it to be anywhere from the southern plains into the Deep South. This would be the threat I mentioned in my original post.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Maroonthirteen's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    6,007
    vCash
    4388
    Well damn.......... 60% chance of rain and 20mph winds Tuesday in Memphis???? Is that what you are seeing forecasted?

    Maybe that changes between now and then.

  19. #19
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Eye of the Storm
    Posts
    22,748
    vCash
    3275
    Quote Originally Posted by Maroonthirteen View Post
    Well damn.......... 60% chance of rain and 20mph winds Tuesday in Memphis???? Is that what you are seeing forecasted?

    Maybe that changes between now and then.
    This week is looking very active weather and wind wise. I was trying to pick a couple days to go deer hunt. Best days looking like Thursday and Friday.

    Next weekend is starting to get some attention in the weather world. There's some indications we're about to see a pattern flip to colder weather and a big severe threat may be the price we pay. But not really focusing on that yet. First threat is Wednesday so getting through it before looking at next weekend.

  20. #20
    Senior Member defiantdog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Southeast
    Posts
    5,679
    vCash
    7213
    Seems like 2011 all over again with this weather

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Disclaimer: Elitedawgs is a privately owned and operated forum that is managed by alumni of Mississippi State University. This website is in no way affiliated with the Mississippi State University, The Southeastern Conference (SEC) or the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). The views and opinions expressed herein are strictly those of the post author and may not reflect the views of other members of this forum or elitedawgs.com. The interactive nature of the elitedawgs.com forums makes it impossible for elitedawgs.com to assume responsibility for any of the content posted at this site. Ideas, thoughts, suggestion, comments, opinions, advice and observations made by participants at elitedawgs.com are not endorsed by elitedawgs.com
Elitedawgs: A Mississippi State Fan Forum, Mississippi State Football, Mississippi State Basketball, Mississippi State Baseball, Mississippi State Athletics. Mississippi State message board.