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Thread: Severe weather now looking likely Friday afternoon through Friday night

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Severe weather now looking likely Friday afternoon through Friday night

    Primary threat looks to be damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes starting Friday afternoon and into the overnight hours. There's still some uncertainty as to how much instability will be present but wind shear looks to be damaging n abundance. If instability looks to be higher than currently forecast and discrete cells can maintain, then look for the severe threat to be increased as the tornado threat will also increase. However, even once this system goes linear, the amount of shear will keep embedded spin up tornadoes with in the line possible. As we draw closer to the event, these finer details will come into focus, but a nocturnal severe threat is now looking likely.



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    Ugh!!!!!

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    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Mostly up north?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    Mostly up north?
    Right now I'd say the worst will be around the middle third. The best dynamics will be to the north and the best instability to the south. Right in the middle should be the best of both worlds. Maybe just south of the middle.

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    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Right now I'd say the worst will be around the middle third. The best dynamics will be to the north and the best instability to the south. Right in the middle should be the best of both worlds. Maybe just south of the middle.
    So around I20 I'm guessing? Since I moved toward the coast a couple months ago, it's mostly stayed above me. Hope this does.

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    Senior Member TNDawg35's Avatar
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    What’s rain totals looking like from Memphis to Corinth areas?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    So around I20 I'm guessing? Since I moved toward the coast a couple months ago, it's mostly stayed above me. Hope this does.
    If I were guessing right now I'd guess Greenville to Memphis and Pine Bluff to Grenada.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNDawg35 View Post
    What’s rain totals looking like from Memphis to Corinth areas?
    Most areas probably around 1/2" but if you get under some discrete cells then a couple isolated areas getting 1-2" wouldn't surprise me.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    While it's still too early to be zeroing on specific target areas, the current model runs seems to be pointing towards NW MS Friday evening. Greenville to Memphis to New Albany to Eupora I'd pay attention. Some of the high res models are starting to depict discrete supercells in this environment starting around dark.

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    Hope yall fare well back east. Many times my fort worth weather heads directly yalls way but yall get much more gulf precip than the n.tx desert.

    The warm weather this time of year seems to always be freaky. Is it a trend naders popping up more during winter?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OLJWales View Post
    Hope yall fare well back east. Many times my fort worth weather heads directly yalls way but yall get much more gulf precip than the n.tx desert.

    The warm weather this time of year seems to always be freaky. Is it a trend naders popping up more during winter?
    It's nothing new. Dixie Alley has had quite a few winter tornadoes. This is even known as our second severe weather season.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    The threat level has been increased to enhanced with the chance of strong tornadoes within that zone.


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    How is the Memphis area looking to you?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jgunn View Post
    How is the Memphis area looking to you?
    Memphis was just barely included in a new moderate risk so I'd be aware of what's going on this evening and tonight. Potential is now there for a few strong long tracked tornadoes in the moderate risk area.

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    How about Jones/jasper county? How's it looking for us? Thanks SVD!

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    How about Jones/jasper county? How's it looking for us? Thanks SVD!
    The further south you are the better for this one. The worst of the worst in MS should be confined NW of a Yazoo City to Tupelo line.

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    The further south you are the better for this one. The worst of the worst in MS should be confined NW of a Yazoo City to Tupelo line.
    Thanks man! Always appreciate your info!

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    Senior Member Dawg_Lover's Avatar
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    As usual, your continued dedication to giving us valuable information is appreciated. Up here in NW MS, I?ll batten down the hatches and try to hold the fort down, literally. 😬

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Nashville????
    Lol. Yep. Imma always get my severe weather info right here. Plus my grand baby is still on Hwy 84 west!!

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg_Lover View Post
    As usual, your continued dedication to giving us valuable information is appreciated. Up here in NW MS, I?ll batten down the hatches and try to hold the fort down, literally. 😬
    Stay safe up there!

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