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Senior Member
Amazing work you did here, man. Really appreciate it and the time and effort you took to put it together with a few of your thoughts. Original analysis in the sports/stats world, outside of a few outlets, is rare.
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This is an awesome thread!!!
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Originally Posted by
confucius say
So basically a ton of crap had to go wrong for us to lose to Memphis and not be 8-4. It did.
That 95% win expectancy has to be one of the highest of the year for any team that lost the game.
Meant to look this up earlier. Sorry. The 95% win expectancy in the Memphis game was the fourth highest by a losing team all season and the highest for a Power 5 team in a loss. We're also the only SEC team -- and one of the few Power 5 teams -- to have lost two games in which we had win expectancies over 50%. Also, Memphis' 5% win expectancy was the second lowest of any winning team all season. Oh, and Arkansas's 36% win expectancy was the third lowest by a winning SEC team all season. (Vandy had a 13% win expectancy in its win over Colorado St. and U. Miss. had a 26% win expectancy against Tennessee.)
If if makes you feel any better, it came back around for Memphis. They lost three games this season (UTSA, Temple, and East Carolina) where they had 50%+ postgame win expectancies.
Yeah, that doesn't make me feel any better at all.
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Junior Member
Jackie Sherrill for special teams coach.
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