Opening Line We?re 2 point Dogs

[Sienfield]

I'm amazed at how people still don't know how Vegas works.

They aren't PREDICTING OM to win, or saying they're the better team. They set the money line to balance the money on each side, ie make the average betters split 50/50.

OM is loved by the media, has a better record, and a better ranking. We have home field advantage, and only real CFB fans will know we're better than our record. Frankly, I'm surprised the spread isn't larger.

But again, the Vegas spread and total points is purely based on what Vegas thinks the BETTERS think of the 2 teams. It is not what Vegas thinks of the 2 teams

What difference does it make? It's the same outcome weather Vegas is betting or Vegas is posting what all the other betters are betting. BTW the line is usually pretty accurate. Having said this I am not a better myself.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

What difference does it make? It's the same outcome weather Vegas is betting or Vegas is posting what all the other betters are betting. BTW the line is usually pretty accurate. Having said this I am not a better myself.

the line is usually "accurate" because if it WASN'T accurate some smart dude would write a predictive algorithm that is, use it to spot Vegas lines that are wrong, and clean house betting accordingly. Vegas lines have to be pretty close to accurate for that reason.

But, general trends of being accurate aside, they still need to balance the betting totals each game, else they lose money... So there is room to move the line in favor of the team that general bettors view highly.

Think of how Miami was ranked #14 preseason, despite doing nothing to earn it. If Vegas set the Miami opening line accurately, betters would go "But Miami is the #14 best team in the country! They'll do way better than that Vegas line implies" and load up on that side. SO even though Vegas probably knew Miami wasn't actually #14, they had to set the line as if they were because betters thought they were. Helmet ranking and bias has to be accounted for. Lines are accurate for 2 teams nobody gives a shit about, because media hype and helmet rankings don't bias the betters