Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 41 to 47 of 47

Thread: Most Likely Outcome (Last Six)

  1. #41
    Senior Member Maverick91's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2020
    Posts
    2,090
    vCash
    3000
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Looking at stats I think we have a decent chance to finish strong.

    What we know is we are a work in progress passing the ball and we have a QB with an AC sprain. What stops us/kills us is either an elite pass rusher like Anderson from Alabama or turnovers.

    I believe Alabama was an outlier. The team wasn't mentally into it and intimidated and as I said they had a super elite pass rusher. What we normally are is an offense that scores somewhere between 24-30 points a game so far and can't overcome turnovers. We typically control TOP and even when all hell breaks lose and we're playing Alabama we can still at least move the ball between the 20's.

    Our defense has been more of a disappointment as they have regressed. We are 12th in sacks and tied for last with Vanderbilt in TFL. We are 9th in interceptions and 4th tied with a host of others with 2 fumble recoveries. We are 10th in turnover margin as a team. None of this is good for a defense designed to create havoc. The eye test sees a team that is poor at tackling, busts too many coverages, and consistently loses contain when rushing the QB and having a chance to get a sack. It has been a bad mess.

    Reason for optimism right?

    I see two likely wins and essentially going by the raw data four toss ups.

    The good news is in several statistics we've played some of the best defenses in the SEC in terms of producing interceptions (turnovers) and rushing the passer on our schedule. We also have two of the worst pass defenses left on our schedule in Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Assuming Will is healthy that should be an opportunity to produce some stats. Not to mention Tennessee State.

    We also face the bottom four defenses in the SEC at producing interceptions. The one defense that's right now the best at producing interceptions on our schedule? Vanderbilt. Yep- Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, and Ole Miss all have five or less INT's on the season. To contrast that and give it some context. Alabama has 10 and LSU and A&M both have 7 INT's on the year.

    Now I'm not saying that we're going to light up Kentucky, Arkansas, or Auburn...or even Ole Miss. But what I am saying is that IF we can take care of the ball against those teams and score in our typical range of 24-30 range we'll have a chance. And I'm assuming that none of those teams have a Will Anderson clone and Auburn and Kentucky may very well have someone like that. So you know assuming = ass u me. Maybe.

    Now our defense for all it's faults is clearly stronger against the run. Which I believe is a big reason why we beat Texas A&M. We're still third in the SEC in rush defense which is pretty darn good. Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky are 11, 13, and 14 in the SEC in passing respectively. Texas A&M for comparison is 12. Alabama and LSU are 2 and 5. (I just want to type this) MSU is number one in passing. The concerning thing is Ole Miss is three and Auburn is 6. However both Ole Miss and Auburn appear to be becoming more and more run heavy and may continue to regress statistically as the season goes on. We'll see. Regardless they are still much better at passing than the other four SEC teams I mentioned in the 11-14 range. Basically what it really tells me is based on the stats we're probably going to have to win shootouts with Auburn and Ole Miss likely and our TOP could be even more key in those games potentially. The other big question is can we maintain our strong run defense against the 1, 4, 5, and 7 rushing teams in the conference in Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky? So far we have played number 8 A&M, 9 Alabama, and 12 LSU for context.

    X-factor- Brandon Ruiz. If there is one good thing about the Alabama game this was it. He looked good on all of his field goals and his absence may have cost us at least the LSU and Memphis games alone not to mention a few points against Texas A&M. He's also normally an automatic touchback on kickoffs which neutralizes the other teams return games even though yes, I am aware Alabama had a few good returns. But I'll give Ruiz a pass on that given that it was his first game back and the kickoffs were not terrible distance wise in general.

    All of that is to say have no idea what the hell is about to happen but we have a chance.
    Bro! Good stuff. Good reasons for optimism.

  2. #42
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2021
    Posts
    1,279
    vCash
    3000
    I?d like to see 3-3 or better, but can see 2-4 or worse, especially if Will is hurt and no one else can run the system.

  3. #43
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2018
    Location
    Pittsburgh PA
    Posts
    2,075
    vCash
    3000
    3-3 is my projection assuming Will is healthy for UK. If he isn?t healthy 2-4 and we wrap up the year. We have to beat UK at home because I don?t see us winning any of the other 3. Maybe a slight chance with ole Miss but not @ark or @aub

  4. #44
    Bennie Brown Know-It-All
    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Posts
    3,915
    vCash
    3138
    Quote Originally Posted by basedog View Post
    I just don't see the sunshine. This is Vandy's last chance for a victory until they plan Missouri and one of two of Msu being favored. It could go either way and that is awful to think.
    I wish I could get Vegas odds on the state / Vandy game being a game that “could go either way”. Unfortunately Vegas deals in reality and not on emotionally unstable fans.

  5. #45
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Posts
    8,799
    vCash
    3100
    Quote Originally Posted by R2Dawg View Post
    I'm hoping and thinking 3-3. We get the third win from either Ark, UK or OM, not sure which one.

    UK is better but we have had their number over the years. Ark seems less likely since on road. OM just because the egg bowl never goes like it should and we are at home.
    Only under Mullen were we able to catch up and even the series. They were ahead in series before then. Everyone acts like UK should be a given for us but historically we're on par with each other.

    This year I think they're better than we are.

  6. #46
    Senior Member msudawg1200's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Posts
    1,295
    vCash
    3100
    Quote Originally Posted by Coach34 View Post
    3-3 the last 6 years.
    Haven't beat us in Davis Wade sine 2008 better known as the last year of Croom.

  7. #47
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2019
    Posts
    283
    vCash
    3000
    90% Vanderbilt
    35% Kentucky
    50% Arkansas
    40% Auburn
    99% Tennessee State
    50% Ole Miss

    I hope I am wrong about Kentucky, but they seem pretty strong this year.
    If we played spoiler to Ole Miss that would give me warm fuzzies.
    Last edited by ImissCityBagel; 10-21-2021 at 06:42 PM.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Disclaimer: Elitedawgs is a privately owned and operated forum that is managed by alumni of Mississippi State University. This website is in no way affiliated with the Mississippi State University, The Southeastern Conference (SEC) or the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). The views and opinions expressed herein are strictly those of the post author and may not reflect the views of other members of this forum or elitedawgs.com. The interactive nature of the elitedawgs.com forums makes it impossible for elitedawgs.com to assume responsibility for any of the content posted at this site. Ideas, thoughts, suggestion, comments, opinions, advice and observations made by participants at elitedawgs.com are not endorsed by elitedawgs.com
Elitedawgs: A Mississippi State Fan Forum, Mississippi State Football, Mississippi State Basketball, Mississippi State Baseball, Mississippi State Athletics. Mississippi State message board.