Why Is Our Defense Getting A Pass?

[confucius say]

12th isn't last. There are 14 teams in the SEC. We're ahead of Missouri and Vandy.

We are 14th in pass defense. Dead last.

The Break But Don't Bend defense is killing us.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I think it's tough to gauge things using stats after four games, especially when only two of those involved Power 5 opponents. That said, the advanced stats are digging our defense way more than some of the traditional stats.

The FEI system, which is based on the results of non-garbage-time drives in FBS games -- % of available yards gained per drive, points per drive, % of drives that end in a TD or turnover, etc. -- and is adjusted for strength of schedule has our defense at 16th nationally after four games. Some of the stats that go into that are a little complicated, like drive value. (That considers where drives end then assigns a point value to the drive based upon how many points teams usually score when they get to that yard line on the field.) But some others are a little easier to grasp. Take TDs-per-drive. Right now, our defense has allowed TDs on 20% of our opponents' offensive drives. That's 39th nationally and 6th in the SEC. Likewise, we're allowing 1.67 points per drive, which is 37th nationally and 7th in the SEC.

Again, this is all early and our high ranking is due in part to a strength-of-schedule bump that we're getting for having played two top 40 Power 5 teams (LSU and NC State) and two ok-to-mediocre G5 teams. (For a good counterpoint, look at Arkansas' defense at 17th in these rankings. They've outperformed our D in every category but one -- opponent drives that end in a turnover -- but two of their opponents (Rice and Ga. Southern) are horrific, so they're weighing down the opponent adjustments.) I'll be surprised if we can keep up these kinds of drive-efficiency numbers throughout conference play so the ranking will undoubtedly drop. Though hopefully we're not too far off from where we'll end up. Our D finished last year ranked 38th in this system so it's not outlandish to hope for another Top 40 finish.

By the way, our offense is currently 57th. High points included being 55th nationally in TDs-per-drive and 37th in % of drives that get at least one first down. The lowlight is being 96th in % of drives that end in a turnover. Last year our offense finished at a woeful 104th overall. I'm interested to see if this plays out in the same way that it did in Leach's first two years at WSU, where his offense was 100th in Year 1 and 62nd in Year 2.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I'm kind of perplexed by the notion that ball control offenses are bad. When we were all about RTDFB, posters raved about how it kept opponents defenses on the field and ground them down 5-6 yards at a time. Our road-grader OL could take over in the 4th quarter and our defense would be relatively fresh. I've seen this for years on this board. We've been SEC top 5 in TOP all but 3 seasons since 2009. And running more plays is bad? I distinctly remember Moorhead getting the SloMo nickname because our offense was only running 60-65 plays a game on overage and being compared to Mullen's offenses that ran 75-80 plays a game. We also ran our RB's 200+ times a season and our QB's 150 times without worrying about the toll that takes - but all the sudden 2 RB's catching 70 passes each is too extreme?

I get that we aren't scoring and we aren't winning. I get that lack of explosive plays is bad. But, arguments like "ball control is bad" just hold no weight when we have been a ball-control RTDFB offense for our entire existence.

Solid point. And what Leach is doing with T.O.P. and opponents' plays per game is exactly what happened at WSU after his first two years. At or near the top of the PAC 12 every year in those categories. Now, whether that necessarily correlates with wins is a different question. Time of possession is great and all, but only if you're scoring, too.

[Commercecomet24]

I think it's tough to gauge things using stats after four games, especially when only two of those involved Power 5 opponents. That said, the advanced stats are digging our defense way more than some of the traditional stats.

The FEI system, which is based on the results of non-garbage-time drives in FBS games -- % of available yards gained per drive, points per drive, % of drives that end in a TD or turnover, etc. -- and is adjusted for strength of schedule has our defense at 16th nationally after four games. Some of the stats that go into that are a little complicated, like drive value. (That considers where drives end then assigns a point value to the drive based upon how many points teams usually score when they get to that yard line on the field.) But some others are a little easier to grasp. Take TDs-per-drive. Right now, our defense has allowed TDs on 20% of our opponents' offensive drives. That's 39th nationally and 6th in the SEC. Likewise, we're allowing 1.67 points per drive, which is 37th nationally and 7th in the SEC.

Again, this is all early and our high ranking is due in part to a strength-of-schedule bump that we're getting for having played two top 40 Power 5 teams (LSU and NC State) and two ok-to-mediocre G5 teams. (For a good counterpoint, look at Arkansas' defense at 17th in these rankings. They've outperformed our D in every category but one -- opponent drives that end in a turnover -- but two of their opponents (Rice and Ga. Southern) are horrific, so they're weighing down the opponent adjustments.) I'll be surprised if we can keep up these kinds of drive-efficiency numbers throughout conference play so the ranking will undoubtedly drop. Though hopefully we're not too far off from where we'll end up. Our D finished last year ranked 38th in this system so it's not outlandish to hope for another Top 40 finish.

By the way, our offense is currently 57th. High points included being 55th nationally in TDs-per-drive and 37th in % of drives that get at least one first down. The lowlight is being 96th in % of drives that end in a turnover. Last year our offense finished at a woeful 104th overall. I'm interested to see if this plays out in the same way that it did in Leach's first two years at WSU, where his offense was 100th in Year 1 and 62nd in Year 2.

You are without a doubt the best stats guy on here. You need to post more because you cut through all the subjectivity and surface stats. Always love your posts.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm kind of perplexed by the notion that ball control offenses are bad. When we were all about RTDFB, posters raved about how it kept opponents defenses on the field and ground them down 5-6 yards at a time. Our road-grader OL could take over in the 4th quarter and our defense would be relatively fresh. I've seen this for years on this board. We've been SEC top 5 in TOP all but 3 seasons since 2009. And running more plays is bad? I distinctly remember Moorhead getting the SloMo nickname because our offense was only running 60-65 plays a game on overage and being compared to Mullen's offenses that ran 75-80 plays a game. We also ran our RB's 200+ times a season and our QB's 150 times without worrying about the toll that takes - but all the sudden 2 RB's catching 70 passes each is too extreme?

I get that we aren't scoring and we aren't winning. I get that lack of explosive plays is bad. But, arguments like "ball control is bad" just hold no weight when we have been a ball-control RTDFB offense for our entire existence.

Yeah kind of amazing isn't it? I mean this even goes back to JWS before Mullen and Jomo. Great post.

[confucius say]

I think it's tough to gauge things using stats after four games, especially when only two of those involved Power 5 opponents. That said, the advanced stats are digging our defense way more than some of the traditional stats.

The FEI system, which is based on the results of non-garbage-time drives in FBS games -- % of available yards gained per drive, points per drive, % of drives that end in a TD or turnover, etc. -- and is adjusted for strength of schedule has our defense at 16th nationally after four games. Some of the stats that go into that are a little complicated, like drive value. (That considers where drives end then assigns a point value to the drive based upon how many points teams usually score when they get to that yard line on the field.) But some others are a little easier to grasp. Take TDs-per-drive. Right now, our defense has allowed TDs on 20% of our opponents' offensive drives. That's 39th nationally and 6th in the SEC. Likewise, we're allowing 1.67 points per drive, which is 37th nationally and 7th in the SEC.

Again, this is all early and our high ranking is due in part to a strength-of-schedule bump that we're getting for having played two top 40 Power 5 teams (LSU and NC State) and two ok-to-mediocre G5 teams. (For a good counterpoint, look at Arkansas' defense at 17th in these rankings. They've outperformed our D in every category but one -- opponent drives that end in a turnover -- but two of their opponents (Rice and Ga. Southern) are horrific, so they're weighing down the opponent adjustments.) I'll be surprised if we can keep up these kinds of drive-efficiency numbers throughout conference play so the ranking will undoubtedly drop. Though hopefully we're not too far off from where we'll end up. Our D finished last year ranked 38th in this system so it's not outlandish to hope for another Top 40 finish.

By the way, our offense is currently 57th. High points included being 55th nationally in TDs-per-drive and 37th in % of drives that get at least one first down. The lowlight is being 96th in % of drives that end in a turnover. Last year our offense finished at a woeful 104th overall. I'm interested to see if this plays out in the same way that it did in Leach's first two years at WSU, where his offense was 100th in Year 1 and 62nd in Year 2.

Really good stuff here. Please update where our defense and offense ranks in these going forward.

That's massive improvement thus far offensively. Just stop with the fumbles!

[Prediction? Pain.]

We have given up 13 TD.

2 have come from inside our red zone. NC state scored from the 4 and LSI from the 11.

The other 11 have been from turnovers or explosive plays. We've given up TDs of 72, 59, 24, 21, 25, 64, 58, and 41 yards. And then the punt return, pick 6, and fumble scoop and score.

The explosives for TDs are killing us.

I've watched most of those big plays happen but seeing them all lumped together like that is pretty telling. Well done.

Also, contrast this with how well we're playing D in the red zone. Looking at FBS games only, we're 3rd in the SEC at opponents' TD % in the red zone behind only A&M and UGA. (UGA has allowed zero. Good lord, man.) But not just that, look at how many trips our opponents have had to the redzone -- in four games, our opponents have reached inside our 20 yard line only 6 times. That's 2nd in the SEC and 5th nationally, people.

Really good stuff here. Please update where our defense and offense ranks in these going forward.

That's massive improvement thus far offensively. Just stop with the fumbles!

Thanks, man. Will do.

[Prediction? Pain.]

You are without a doubt the best stats guy on here. You need to post more because you cut through all the subjectivity and surface stats. Always love your posts.

Thanks, man. That pesky job thing I have is always getting in the way of my college football statistical rabbit holes. But I'm guessing my wife wouldn't react too well if she came home from work to find that I've retired to live my dream of being a professional message board research monkey.

[Maverick91]

Thanks, man. That pesky job thing I have is always getting in the way of my college football statistical rabbit holes. But I'm guessing my wife wouldn't react too well if she came home from work to find that I've retired to live my dream of being a professional message board research monkey.

Those pesky bills, man, freaking bills.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks, man. That pesky job thing I have is always getting in the way of my college football statistical rabbit holes. But I'm guessing my wife wouldn't react too well if she came home from work to find that I've retired to live my dream of being a professional message board research monkey.

LOL, I understand completely. But you know if you retired I'm sure you could make a fortune in vCash on here with your statistical expertise! In all seriousness, always appreciate your analysis! Thanks!

[sleepy dawg]

We are 14th in Pass D- dead last

http://cfbstats.com/2021/leader/911/...02/sort01.html

I see where the difference are now. CBS counts all games. NCAA doesn't count FCS games, so some other teams didn't get to count those towards their stats. If you take out FCS games, we are 12th in scoring defense, and 7th in ypg on defense.

[sleepy dawg]

Not counting FCS, we're tied for 2nd in the SEC in turnovers gained with 7. Only Georgia has more. On the flip side Only Vandy and Kentucky have given up more turnovers on offense than us.

Also our offense has a .333 4th down conversion percentage while our D is .500 at stopping 4th downs.

These are important stats to factor in as well for obvious reasons, but this they also have a major impact on the flip side of the ball. If our Defense is getting the offense the ball more often, then the offense has more opportunities. If our offense is giving the ball away more, then our defense is being put in more difficult situations than they should be.

When looking at efficiency numbers our defense far outranks our offense. According to football outsiders, who compile multiple efficiency methods, our offense ranks 57th, just behind NC State and just before Texas AM, while our defense ranks 16th, just behind Texas AM and just ahead of Arkansas. I do expect these numbers to get a little worse as we start to play better opponents going forward, but pretty much all efficiency ratings have our defense as superior to our offense... That said, our special teams rank 100th in the country which is pretty pathetic.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...veralloff/2021
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...veralldef/2021
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...overallst/2021

[confucius say]

Our defense is no doubt superior to our offense. It still hasn't lived up to expectations or improved since last year though. It's really just the explosives for TDs that is killing it.

[maroonmania]

Our defense is no doubt superior to our offense. It still hasn't lived up to expectations or improved since last year though. It's really just the explosives for TDs that is killing it.

Yea, unfortunately for us, TDs count the same number of points whether they are earned on a 12 play drive or a 2 play drive.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Well our defense/special teams has pretty much won 2/3 of the games during Leach's tenure. They have so much pressure to keep us in the games while our offenses go through these qtr(s) long lulls. They give up 1 too many big plays but they also keep us in every game.

Bingo. The last 4 games we lost were due to the offense giving the other team points. Whether we are driving and fumble, pick 6s, etc.

[Jarius]

Our defense is no doubt superior to our offense. It still hasn't lived up to expectations or improved since last year though. It's really just the explosives for TDs that is killing it.

I believe on the Hadad and Faulk show this week they said our defense was 26th in the country in yards or scoring or something. I don’t really care enough to fact check them. Point being the large majority of our issues are on the offense going long stretches without scoring and Our special teams killing us. Our defense has given up 27, 7 (yea it was 14 but the last one was in garbage time and we were not playing our normal defense), 14, and 28 against LSU (but we gave them the ball on the first possession deep in our territory so they get a bit of a pass for that). We should be able to win with those stats.