Tropical head's up - Hurricane IDA

[starkvegasdawg]

Based on the current projections (which we all know can/will change) can anyone guess what the conditions in the Jackson metro will be like compared to Katrina. I'm not comparing the two storms but just searching for a reference point to relate what we're facing Monday . Sustained wind, wind gusts , duration and such.

Shouldn't be as bad as Katrina. Center passed a lot closer to Jackson with Katrina than will with Ida.

[Churchill]

Thank you.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Based on the track I just saw, Natchez is going to be in for a rough day.

[parabrave]

Based on the track I just saw, Natchez is going to be in for a rough day.

They're gonna have it worse than us on the Coast

[PMDawg]

So far, it's moving fast enough that it can't really tap into the hot waters of the GOM to its maximum potential. So the strengthening has been a little less than it could have been. On the flip side, that fast forward motion is going to lead to higher storm surges.

[parabrave]

Check out the Bouy Cam on 42003. Kinda of rough. Bouys can be found at NDBC. Nat Data Bout Center. Go to Atlantic Hurricane Ida.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/buo...08_28_2010.jpg

[starkvegasdawg]

So far, it's moving fast enough that it can't really tap into the hot waters of the GOM to its maximum potential. So the strengthening has been a little less than it could have been. On the flip side, that fast forward motion is going to lead to higher storm surges.

And stronger winds inland.

[Noxdog]

And stronger winds inland.

When and what will the GTR be dealing with?

Right now, i'm leaning toward a lotta rain, some wind and threat of tornadoes.

In other words, APRIL.

[starkvegasdawg]

When and what will the GTR be dealing with?

Right now, i'm leaning toward a lotta rain, some wind and threat of tornadoes.

In other words, APRIL.

It appears Ida isn't strengthening as rapidly as anticipated. Hopefully the next update doesn't prove me wrong. Assuming a landfall of 115-125 then by the time it starts affecting the GTR I would be expecting sustained winds in the 25-30mph range with gusts 40-50. Rain of 5-10 inches seems to be par for the course and we will be in the tornado threat region of the storm. How bad that will be is still TBD. Going to depend on how much buoyancy and tropical air works this far north.

One thing that may put a huge wrench in this is the track. There's been some evidence this afternoon the track is jogging a little further east than forecast. Have to see if that's a trend or just a temporary wobble in the track. If it's a trend and landfall is closer to Nola then the center will track closer to the GTR region and the sustained winds may need to be bumped up.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest track has now shifted east and it spells bad news for Nola. City could see a lot of water again. Especially with some of the pumps out. And while the pressure has continued to fall, the winds have remained at 105mph. I expect the winds to eventually catch up to the pressure falls and for it to reach major hurricane status. But I do think all the talk of it possibly making a run at category 5 can now be put to bed. It may still have an outside shot at 4, but I'm guessing it'll end up a midrange to high end 3 unless it really bombs out tonight and tomorrow.

As for here, this track shift should all but guarantee the NW part of the state (north and west of a Cleveland to Holly Springs line) stays on the left side of the center which will minimize impacts for that area. The tornado threat will be basically zero. Still will have to deal with high winds and heavy rain, but not quite as much as just to the east of the center. But if you're east of a Vicksburg to Greenwood to Tupelo line then you'll get the worst of the storm. Areas right along the center will see the strongest sustained winds and heavy rain with the outer bands seeing the higher tornado threat with lower sustained winds with occasional higher gusts. Now we may all wake up tomorrow and the storm has exploded in strength and the track changed which will make all the above a complete load of BS.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's the graphic from the NWS. If you're in the Orange or red shaded area expect scattered to numerous power outages. The yellow shaded area will be isolated to scattered. I wouldn't be surprised to see the orange shaded area extended north and east up to 82 if the current track shift holds.

[Noxdog]

Here's the graphic from the NWS. If you're in the Orange or red shaded area expect scattered to numerous power outages. The yellow shaded area will be isolated to scattered. I wouldn't be surprised to see the orange shaded area extended north and east up to 82 if the current track shift holds.

Keep our heads on a swivel.

[parabrave]

Winds at 130 now.

[ScoobaDawg]

Official cat 4 - 130mph 949mb

[Dawg_Lover]

Thanks StarkVegasDawg for keeping us so well informed. Your efforts are certainly appreciated.

[ScoobaDawg]

Pressure dropped over 10mb in past hour. Down to 943 and over 130 mph
Winds in the ne quadrant have jumped 15kts in 90 minutes

Will be a category 4 when I wake up almost certain.

[parabrave]

Checking the Bouys and wx station, Pilot station at SW pass, which will probably get the worst, winds are at 40. At apache main Pass widds are gusting to 58. The eye is now visible on New Orleans radar staying on the NWS tract. AF Hurricane Hunter has wind of 120 in the NE Eyewall. Thats at 3000FT flight level.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/reco...-1209A-IDA.png

[TimberBeast]

Looks like it jumped back west a hair last I saw. I was just outside looking at the bayou and nothing crazy yet. I put down a bunch of sandbags tonight. This thing looks like a beast, have a good friend hunkering down in NO. Pretty scary.

[parabrave]

Looks like it jumped back west a hair last I saw. I was just outside looking at the bayou and nothing crazy yet. I put down a bunch of sandbags tonight. This thing looks like a beast, have a good friend hunkering down in NO. Pretty scary.

Yes it did

[parabrave]

If anyone want good coverage go to WWLTV. Best News coverage in the south/