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Thread: Baseball Stats: The Opponent HR in 2021

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    Baseball Stats: The Opponent HR in 2021

    Homerun containment at TD Ameritrade will be a massive factor for us.

    (1) 2021-MSU pitching has yielded 68% more HRs than the previous year, you need to go back 11 seasons to the last +60 HR year for opponents.
    (2) However, 2021-MSU only gave up 6 more Total Bases and 50 fewer hits relative to 2019. Even fewer hits than dead bat 2014.
    (3) Seems that teams can't string hits on MSU, the opposition need the big HR payoff and swing hard
    (4) Is Gorilla Ball back in 2021 generally? Not for MSU. MSU only got 9% more HR in 2021 and struck out less

    The Opposition in Omaha

    (1) Tennessee has hit 85% more HRs in 2021. From 53 to 98 HRs, striking out 100 times more
    (2) Texas has hit 133% more HRs in 2021. From a sad 27 to respectable 63, striking out 100 times more

    If TD Ameritrade contains HRs like Arlington did in February and how TD Ameritrade has in years past, this is game changing for MSU. It neutralizes the best weapon against MSU. If Lemonis was planning for TD Ameritrade this whole time, then this is the greatest use of terrain since the Iron Duke at Waterloo with the Reverse Slope. Then he just needs to figure out how to beat the Rocker-Leiter.

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    Senior Member MoreCowbell's Avatar
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    I have been thinking about this as well. I always go back to how UCLA played us in championship that year. I like the stats you provided thank you.

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    Senior Member MoreCowbell's Avatar
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    I like that we dont necessarily rely on the home run for our offensive production

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    Super Moderator CadaverDawg's Avatar
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    I may be way off, but I feel like Foxhall likes power arms that pitch up in the zone to blow it by people. When you use that strategy, you're going to give up some bombs, but you're going to strike a lot of guys out and get a lot of pop ups. So based on this years results, I'll gladly take the increase in homers along with the 750 K's and overall lack of hard contact we give up. Gotta keep recruiting big arms though, or that could turn ugly if the K's come way down.

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    Senior Member SailingDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer View Post
    Then he just needs to figure out how to beat the Rocker-Leiter.
    Didn't we beat Leiter in the regular season?
    Last edited by SailingDawg; 06-17-2021 at 04:27 PM.

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    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Good stats. I do believe taking away the home run threat is a big help for us. but more pressure to cleanly field in the infield.

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    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SailingDawg View Post
    Didn't we beat Leither in the regular season?
    Yep. got 4 runs on 6 hits. including Rowdey hitting 1-0 bomb to start the game and tanner getting a homer in the 5th.
    https://vucommodores.com/boxscore/210607/

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    Quote Originally Posted by CadaverDawg View Post
    I may be way off, but I feel like Foxhall likes power arms that pitch up in the zone to blow it by people. When you use that strategy, you're going to give up some bombs, but you're going to strike a lot of guys out and get a lot of pop ups. So based on this years results, I'll gladly take the increase in homers along with the 750 K's and overall lack of hard contact we give up. Gotta keep recruiting big arms though, or that could turn ugly if the K's come way down.
    I was thinking on this last week. Didn't think whether it was Foxhall's preference or just our pitchers. We seem to have a staff loaded with strike out guys and not many pitch to contact guys.

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    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmokeyDawg View Post
    I was thinking on this last week. Didn't think whether it was Foxhall's preference or just our pitchers. We seem to have a staff loaded with strike out guys and not many pitch to contact guys.
    K's went over 700 when Foxhall came... just figured it was his style.
    Hoping we get to 766 for the season so we can break the sec record.

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    Good stats. CMac particularly gives up a good bit of long balls. Harding does not. He may be your better option after bednar

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg View Post
    K's went over 700 when Foxhall came... just figured it was his style.
    Hoping we get to 766 for the season so we can break the sec record.
    Not me, I like Maddux Ball

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maddux_(statistic)

    I wish we had a Chuck Holly, Caleb Reed, and/or Jonathan Holder that did not throw 97, but were reliable, mental Titans. We are missing this precision ingredient because Brandon Smith is not yet back to 2019 performance. Or, maybe Foxhall does not cultivate the trait like Butch did.

    After watching many regional games, NCAA is full of +95 Canadians. The short draft did not make the pitching talent too dominant, it left a ton of A-ball head cases in D1.

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    Omaha temps?highs and lows.

    Sunday 87 64
    Monday 73 54
    Tuesday 81 66

    If lower temps mitigate ball flight?maybe I?m reaching

    ETA: Winds 15-30 mph Sunday out of the South

    Winds 10-20 Tuesday from W/NW

    I don’t know which way the field is directed.
    Last edited by Schultzy; 06-16-2021 at 10:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Schultzy View Post
    I don’t know which way the field is directed.
    Home to center field is pretty much on a due southeast bearing.

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    How similar are our dimensions compared to Omaha?

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    Quote Originally Posted by OLJWales View Post
    How similar are our dimensions compared to Omaha?
    408 dead center Omaha
    395 Dudy Noble

    335 down both left and right field lines in Omaha
    330 down left and 328 down right in Dudy

    375 in both power alleys in Omaha

    Dudy I think is 370 in the alleys

    I may be off on the Dudy numbers. I know Omaha from memory.

    Worse than I thought.

    Dudy
    305 right field line
    390 dead center
    374 RC
    376 LC
    330 left field line


    So. Safe to say the ball will not fly out of Omaha like it did the last two weeks in Starkville without crushing it or help from Mother Nature.
    Last edited by FriarsPoint; 06-16-2021 at 11:06 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FriarsPoint View Post
    408 dead center Omaha
    395 Dudy Noble

    335 down both left and right field lines in Omaha
    330 down left and 328 down right in Dudy

    375 in both power alleys in Omaha

    Dudy I think is 370 in the alleys

    I may be off on the Dudy numbers. I know Omaha from memory.

    Worse than I thought.

    Dudy
    305 right field line
    390 dead center
    374 RC
    376 LC
    330 left field line


    So. Safe to say the ball will not fly out of Omaha like it did the last two weeks in Starkville without crushing it or help from Mother Nature.
    Thanks Friar. Sounds like Omaha is advantage good guys.

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    Since 2014 when TD Ameritrade became the Venue and the Dead Bat was eliminated

    2019 HR/Team/Game = 0.73 ... that was 24% Less than 2019 SEC HR/Team/Game
    2018 HR/Team/Game = 0.56 ... 42% Less than 2018 SEC HR/Team/Game
    2017 HR/Team/Game = 0.72 ... 15% Less than 2017 SEC HR/Team/Game
    2016 HR/Team/Game = 0.29 ... 57% Less than 2016 SEC HR/Team/Game
    2015 HR/Team/Game = 0.47 ... 36% Less than 2015 SEC HR/Team/Game

    Of the last 5 champs, only 2018-Oregon State hit more HR's in the CWS, up 1%. They hit nearly half the HRs in that tournament.

    The rest of the champs hit 17% to 80% fewer longballs in Omaha.

    I compared the CWS only to SEC games to control for Opponent Quality and the use of Friday and Saturday Aces.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CadaverDawg View Post
    I may be way off, but I feel like Foxhall likes power arms that pitch up in the zone to blow it by people. When you use that strategy, you're going to give up some bombs, but you're going to strike a lot of guys out and get a lot of pop ups. So based on this years results, I'll gladly take the increase in homers along with the 750 K's and overall lack of hard contact we give up. Gotta keep recruiting big arms though, or that could turn ugly if the K's come way down.
    I'm not sure that Bednar and MacLeoud really fit Foxhall's style that well in that I don't think either one has enough velocity to pitch without being prone to giving up home runs. I do think that guys like Fristoe (who yes, I know gave up 9 home runs himself), Cade Smith, Tepper, and the recruits we're getting fit it much better.

    Quote Originally Posted by SailingDawg View Post
    Didn't we beat Leither in the regular season?
    Yes. If we play them in the championship round- getting ahead of myself here- the best chance we have is to split with Rocker and Leiter and then hope that Hootie can outpitch their third guy. We also won't hold Landon back and we'll be at a neutral site as opposed to Nashville.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer View Post
    Not me, I like Maddux Ball

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maddux_(statistic)

    I wish we had a Chuck Holly, Caleb Reed, and/or Jonathan Holder that did not throw 97, but were reliable, mental Titans. We are missing this precision ingredient because Brandon Smith is not yet back to 2019 performance. Or, maybe Foxhall does not cultivate the trait like Butch did.

    After watching many regional games, NCAA is full of +95 Canadians. The short draft did not make the pitching talent too dominant, it left a ton of A-ball head cases in D1.
    The biggest thing I miss about Butch was all the sidearm/submarine guys. Not that I think we should go back to that. But I'd like to have a guy or two that we can rely on to eat innings like Chase Patrick that we use some. It's just a weird thing I like as far as baseball players go. Loved me some Dan Quisenberry back in the day.

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