2021 Starkville Regional Breakdown

[KOdawg1]

I'll start with Samford since that's who we play first.

#4 seed: Samford Bulldogs (35-22)

20-6 at home, 12-16 on the road, 3-0 neutral, 7-3 in last 10

RPI- 54, SOS- 96, 6-14 vs. top 100 RPI, 0-7 vs. ranked opponents

Common opponents: Florida (L,L,L), Texas A&M (L,L,L), UAB (W,W), The Citadel (W,W,W), Alabama (L), Auburn (L, W), Jacksonville State (W,W)

Top hitters:

R Tyler McManus (DH and cleanup hitter): .335 Avg, 1.033 OPS, 11 HR, 52 RBI
R Sonny DiChiara (bats 3rd): .265 Avg, .982 OPS, 15 HR, 42 RBI;
R Brooks Carlson (bats 2nd): .302 Avg, 891 OPS, 6 HR, 37 RBI
R Ryan Crockett (bats 5th): .294 Avg, .881 OPS, 11 HR, 43 RBI
S Max Pinto (leadoff): .288 Avg, 20 stolen bases in 27 attempts

Their ace is LHP Samuel Strikland: 5-3, 5.07 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 69 Ks, 14 BBs, 98 H, 76.1 IP

Top bullpen arms:

RHP Chase Isbell: 7 saves, 2.32 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 44 Ks, 13 BBs, 19 H, 31 IP
RHP Carson Cupo: 9-0, 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 34 Ks, 10 BBs, 33 H, 33.1 IP

Summary: They're a VERY RH heavy lineup. In fact, if we do indeed pitch MacLeod, you'll probably see RH batters 1-9. I couldn't find RH/LH splits, but they?re 27-15 when they face a starter that's a RHP and 7-7 vs. LHP which is interesting. As a team, they hit .283 which is 4th best in their conference. They also led their conference with 475 strikeouts, which plays to our advantage. Striking out at almost 25%. 64 total HRs, which is good for 2nd in their conference. Their leadoff hitter accounts for half of their SB. They've committed 72 errors this season with a .965 fielding percentage. They have a team ERA of 6.12 (3rd worse in the SoCon), and they've given up 525 hits, (2nd worse in the SoCon). They've given up 70 HRs and 222 BBs. In short, their 2-5 hitters have some pop, but they strike out a ton. Outside of a couple of bullpen arms, their pitching is pretty bad. We'll most definitely see Strickland. He hasn't had a good year, but he's a 4th year senior who has played a lot of baseball. If we pitch MacLeod, he will have to have his changeup working to navigate through this RH lineup.

[KOdawg1]

#2 seed: VCU Rams (37-14)

20-3 at home, 17-11 on the road, 10-0 in last 10 (21 straight wins)
RPI- 31, SOS- 139, 7-8 vs. top 100 RPI

No common opponents

Top hitters:

R Tyler Locklear (bats 2nd): .344 avg, 1.221 OPS, 16 HR, 64 RBI
L Liam Hibbits (bats 3rd): .330 avg, .902 OPS, 3 HR, 58 RBI
R Steven Carpenter (leadoff): .325, .864 OPS, 2 HR, 38 RBI

They’ve got three starters that they’ve rotated around:

RHP Bradford Webb: 3-1, 3.10 ERA, 52 Ks, 12 BBs, 54 Hs, 52.1 IP
LHP Tyler Davis: 9-1, 4.18 ERA, 53 Ks, 22 BBs, 51 Hs, 51 IP
RHP Mason Delane: 3-0, 4.67 ERA, 49 Ks, 16 BBs, 75 H, 61.2 IP

They’ve got two main bullpen arms:
RHP Danny Watson: 2-4, 4.06 ERA, 55 Ks, 21 BBs, 44 IP, 6 SV
RHP Evan Chenier: 3-0, 3.76 ERA, 41 Ks, 15 BBs, 40.2 IP

Summary:

Another RH heavy lineup. As a team they hit .289. Locklear is a stud. They’ve got some pieces around him, but he is their team. Smart move to put him in the 2 hole so you can’t pitch around him. They strikeout a decent amount with 400 Ks. They lead the A10 in runs with 429. Their HR numbers aren’t great, but they’ve hit 105 doubles which is far and away first in the A10. 67 SB on 83 att. Their team ERA is 4.34. Teams are hitting .262 vs them. They’ve only allowed 37 HRs. They’ve committed 61 errors with a .965 fielding percentage. If I had to guess, they’ll throw Tyler Davis in game 1, which means we’ll face either Webb or Delane should they win. But like I said, they’ve flip-flopped these guys around all year, so it’ll be hard to tell. This is a hot team that’s won 21 straight, but they haven’t really played anyone. The key should be to not let Locklear beat us. If we win our first game and they win their’s, Bednar will likely face them, which will be good considering he’ll see 6 or 7 RH hitters.

[KOdawg1]

#3 seed: Campbell Fighting Camels (35-16)

22-5 at home, 11-9 on the road, 2-2 neutral, 8-2 in last 10

RPI- 37, SOS- 87, 7-6 vs. top 100 RPI

No common opponents

These dudes can mash.

R Zach Neto (bats 3rd): .414 avg, 1.244 OPS, 10 HR, 55 RBI
L Spencer Packard (bats 4th): .377 avg, 1.110 OPS, 9 HR, 63 RBI
S Connor Denning (bats 2nd): .352 avg, 1.182 OPS, 11 HR, 38 RBI
R Matthew Christian (bats 6th): .350 avg, 1.092 OPS, 16 HR, 61 RBI
R Bryce Arnold (leadoff): .335 avg, .975 OPS, 5 HR, 34 RBI

Starting pitchers:

RHP Thomas Harrington: 6-2, 2.71 ERA, 71 Ks, 21 BBs, 57 H, 69 IP
RHP Cade Kuehler: 5-2, 3.89 ERA, 41 Ks, 20 BBs, 50 H, 44 IP
LHP Ryan Chasse: 6-2, 4.05 ERA, 70 Ks, 29 BBs, 67 H, 73 IP


And their bullpen is pretty solid:

RHP Fred Sisco: 2.55 ERA
RHP Logan Heintzman: 2.79 ERA
RHP Zach Neto (yeah he pitches too): 3.43 ERA

Summary:

This is a very dangerous team. You’ve seen some of their best hitters’ numbers. As a team they hit .307. They’ve hit 65 HR and scored 442 runs, both at the top of their conference. They’re tied for 3rd in the country in doubles with 124. Their K% is around 20% and they lead their conference in walks. Their team ERA is 4.29. Opponents are hitting .250 against them. They’re the best fielding team in their conference with a .971 F%. Most probably think VCU is the most dangerous team in our regional, but I think it’s these guys. They hit for average and power, and they can pitch it too. About halfway through the year, they moved Kuehler out of the bullpen and started throwing him on Fridays instead of Harrington who has the better numbers. No idea why. But if I had to guess, they’ll throw Harrington in game 1, meaning we’d likely see Kuehler if they win.

[Rex54]

What are the park dimensions of Campbell's field?

[Johnson85]

#3 seed: Campbell Fighting Camels (35-16)

22-5 at home, 11-9 on the road, 2-2 neutral, 8-2 in last 10

RPI- 37, SOS- 87, 7-6 vs. top 100 RPI

No common opponents

These dudes can mash.

R Zach Neto (bats 3rd): .414 avg, 1.244 OPS, 10 HR, 55 RBI
L Spencer Packard (bats 4th): .377 avg, 1.110 OPS, 9 HR, 63 RBI
S Connor Denning (bats 2nd): .352 avg, 1.182 OPS, 11 HR, 38 RBI
R Matthew Christian (bats 6th): .350 avg, 1.092 OPS, 16 HR, 61 RBI
R Bryce Arnold (leadoff): .335 avg, .975 OPS, 5 HR, 34 RBI

Starting pitchers:

RHP Thomas Harrington: 6-2, 2.71 ERA, 71 Ks, 21 BBs, 57 H, 69 IP
RHP Cade Kuehler: 5-2, 3.89 ERA, 41 Ks, 20 BBs, 50 H, 44 IP
LHP Ryan Chasse: 6-2, 4.05 ERA, 70 Ks, 29 BBs, 67 H, 73 IP


And their bullpen is pretty solid:

RHP Fred Sisco: 2.55 ERA
RHP Logan Heintzman: 2.79 ERA
RHP Zach Neto (yeah he pitches too): 3.43 ERA

Summary:

This is a very dangerous team. You’ve seen some of their best hitters’ numbers. As a team they hit .307. They’ve hit 65 HR and scored 442 runs, both at the top of their conference. They’re tied for 3rd in the country in doubles with 124. Their K% is around 20% and they lead their conference in walks. Their team ERA is 4.29. Opponents are hitting .250 against them. They’re the best fielding team in their conference with a .971 F%. Most probably think VCU is the most dangerous team in our regional, but I think it’s these guys. They hit for average and power, and they can pitch it too. About halfway through the year, they moved Kuehler out of the bullpen and started throwing him on Fridays instead of Harrington who has the better numbers. No idea why. But if I had to guess, they’ll throw Harrington in game 1, meaning we’d likely see Kuehler if they win.

Hard to say just based on stats without knowing who they have played, but they certainly look more dangerous than VCU based on their strength of schedule and stats compared to VCU.

[KOdawg1]

What are the park dimensions of Campbell's field?

337 feet down the left field line, 368 feet in left-center, 395 feet to straight-away center, 375 feet to the right-center, and 328 feet down the right field line.

[Really Clark?]

Hard to say just based on stats without knowing who they have played, but they certainly look more dangerous than VCU based on their strength of schedule and stats compared to VCU.

They only played 3 P5 schools, NC State, Duke and NC. Lost all 3 games

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks for the analysis. Appreciate it!

[State82]

Nice work, KO. Thanks

[Johnson85]

They only played 3 P5 schools, NC State, Duke and NC. Lost all 3 games

Damn. How bad was VC's schedule if it was that much weaker than Campbell and Campbell only played 3 P5 schools. Or did the lack of out of conference play in some conferences just completely screw up SOS calculations this year?

[KOdawg1]

Damn. How bad was VC's schedule if it was that much weaker than Campbell and Campbell only played 3 P5 schools. Or did the lack of out of conference play in some conferences just completely screw up SOS calculations this year?

I think all of the calculations are a little off this year.

VCU played 2 P5 teams in Virginia and Virginia Tech. They went 2-0 vs. UVA and they split 1-1 with Va Tech.

They also went 1-1 vs. Old Dominion who is a host team.

But they played (and lost to) some bad teams early on. They've gone a winning streak since mid-April, but most of the teams they've beaten have been 200+ in the RPI.

[Captain Falcon]

Hard to know what to expect from these teams given their strength of schedules. Campbell and VCU played in the 20th and 21st ranked RPI conferences. I don't doubt that both are good baseball teams but I can't imagine playing in front of 80 people in the A-10 or Big South remotely resembles what this weekend will be like for them. With Samford, we played them in mid March and smoked them but that was obviously forever ago in baseball terms and the pitching situations will likely be different for both teams now.

I generally think if we show up locked in and ready to go we will be fine. But obviously we have recently seen what can happen if we don't. This team has typically bounced back well following a bad weekend, tend to think we probably do here. Just excited to see how it goes, the college baseball postseason is always fun to follow.

[CadaverDawg]

Great breakdown KO, thanks for this. Definitely wasn't aware that Campbell had those batting averages. Something to keep an eye on

[OLJWales]

Awesome KO. great work sir.

[KOdawg1]

No problem guys. I enjoy doing stuff like this.

Also, I did some more digging and found that this isn't the first time Samuel Strickland will make a regional start vs. a #7 national seed. He did it back in 2018 in the Tallahasse regional when 4 seed Samford upset FSU, which sent FSU in the losers bracket to face us (And we all know how that went). Strickland was the starting pitcher; went 4.2 IP, gave up 5 runs, and K'd 5. Didn't pick up the win, but he's been on a stage like this before. Just something worth noting.

[preachermatt83]

Mark my words, VCU is legit. They are not a typical mid major. They are a team that could make a run like coastal Carolina or Tenn tech have in recent years.

[Todd4State]

Very nice!

[Homedawg]

No problem guys. I enjoy doing stuff like this.

Also, I did some more digging and found that this isn't the first time Samuel Strickland will make a regional start vs. a #7 national seed. He did it back in 2018 in the Tallahasse regional when 4 seed Samford upset FSU, which sent FSU in the losers bracket to face us (And we all know how that went). Strickland was the starting pitcher; went 4.2 IP, gave up 5 runs, and K'd 5. Didn't pick up the win, but he's been on a stage like this before. Just something worth noting.

good work!

[Choctaw Dawg]

Both Campbell and VCU remind me of that Central Michigan that came here in 2019. They were on a long winning streak too and came in a played loose and easy and beat Miami that first game, but Once they played in that night game against us everything started to turn and the crowd got to them. I think the same will happen this regional too, once the crowd gets involved our homefield advantage gets bigger and bigger.

[confucius say]

Good work. Thanks!