Another No Hitter

[Homedawg]

If only dawg61 were still here you'd have some comp Rex.....

[Really Clark?]

I want to aid the quality of the product, have you not been reading my posts? The product is shit, it's unwatchable, it's uninteresting. You have to fix the GAME to incentivize less K's and more balls in play. Unless you touch on the velocity, shifts, and spin rates THAT INCENTIVE CANNOT HAPPEN because a change in approach will lead to less runs.

I understand what you want to do but moving the mound back does NOT change the hitters approach. You just give him more time to read the pitch and more time to react or lay off pitches. Walks will go up. But you are addressing the pitching not the problem with hitters flaws. You can accomplish the same thing by limiting the equipment used, I.e the balls. Flatten the seams and making the ball deader also limits both the spin and makes hit harder to hit home runs. There the problem you want to address is solved. But it still is not fixing the hitting flaws.

The shift is a defense that has been around for a long time and as I said before, I’m against banning defenses only because an offense can’t beat it. That’s a lame non competitive approach to solving a problem. Offenses either fix the problem or live with it but the answer is not a ban, it’s innovation, creativity, skill. That is the answer, the only answer.

Ban a substance that’s illegal to use...catch them and enforce the rules. But that takes organizations wanting to control a problem but they want their own pitchers using it, so it’s live with it because everyone is doing it or the league will have to take control of the problem.

[Homedawg]

I understand what you want to do but moving the mound back does NOT change the hitters approach. You just give him more time to read the pitch and more time to react or lay off pitches. Walks will go up. But you are addressing the pitching not the problem with hitters flaws. You can accomplish the same thing by limiting the equipment used, I.e the balls. Flatten the seams and making the ball deader also limits both the spin and makes hit harder to hit home runs. There the problem you want to address is solved. But it still is not fixing the hitting flaws.

The shift is a defense that has been around for a long time and as I said before, I’m against banning defenses only because an offense can’t beat it. That’s a lame non competitive approach to solving a problem. Offenses either fix the problem or live with it but the answer is not a ban, it’s innovation, creativity, skill. That is the answer, the only answer.

Ban a substance that’s illegal to use...catch them and enforce the rules. But that takes organizations wanting to control a problem but they want their own pitchers using it, so it’s live with it because everyone is doing it or the league will have to take control of the problem.

Hard to argue w this.

[Cooterpoot]

I'm gonna go throw my kid on a Hit Trax tomorrow and tell him to smash balls into the top of the cage to see how many HRs he can hit. That should fix his hitting problem. Or at least that's what a lot people getting paid to teaching hitting are doing.

[Todd4State]

I'm gonna go throw my kid on a Hit Trax tomorrow and tell him to smash balls into the top of the cage to see how many HRs he can hit. That should fix his hitting problem. Or at least that's what a lot people getting paid to teaching hitting are doing.

And THIS is the real problem. I have no problem with modern technology at all. But I think it's being misused because the teaching is so off.

[Rex54]

But you are addressing the pitching not the problem with hitters flaws.

Again, here is the disconnect. The hitters today aren't "flawed". Just like the unwatchable NBA shooting all those 3's isn't "flawed". The analytics nerds have recognized that the BB/HR is so much more valuable they are willing to completely sell out for it on a risk/reward scale.

You might normally say "two strike approach, put ball in play" but they say "no, still try for power because why not". And they're right! With the velocity and shifts hitters, GM's and organizations on a league-wide scale have recognized that the value of striking out isn't much lower than a ball in play. The natural K% is higher now than ever because of velocity and spin rate. The natural batting average is lower now because of higher K's and shifts. The UNNATURAL movement even higher on K% and lower on batting average is due to CORRECTLY approaching hitting the way teams are doing, correctly in the sense of "here's what it takes to score the most runs in this environment"

The only way to change this is to make the "correct" aka the most analytical approach be to limit strikeouts and put the balls in play. The analytics nerds will always find out which approach leads to maximum runs. The task is to change the environment to achieve the style of game that is enjoyable for the fans.

[BrunswickDawg]

Again, here is the disconnect. The hitters today aren't "flawed". Just like the unwatchable NBA shooting all those 3's isn't "flawed". The analytics nerds have recognized that the BB/HR is so much more valuable they are willing to completely sell out for it on a risk/reward scale.

You might normally say "two strike approach, put ball in play" but they say "no, still try for power because why not". And they're right! With the velocity and shifts hitters, GM's and organizations on a league-wide scale have recognized that the value of striking out isn't much lower than a ball in play. The natural K% is higher now than ever because of velocity and spin rate. The natural batting average is lower now because of higher K's and shifts. The UNNATURAL movement even higher on K% and lower on batting average is due to CORRECTLY approaching hitting the way teams are doing, correctly in the sense of "here's what it takes to score the most runs in this environment"

The only way to change this is to make the "correct" aka the most analytical approach be to limit strikeouts and put the balls in play. The analytics nerds will always find out which approach leads to maximum runs. The task is to change the environment to achieve the style of game that is enjoyable for the fans.

Man you are dense. Velocity is not up. They changed where they measure speed of pitch in 2017 due to improvements in technology. Statcast picks it up out of the hand - it used to be measured about 10 feet in front of home plate.

And spin rate is just a metric. What spin rate has done has gotten pitchers more comfortable in believing that movement is real, and that they can pitch in other areas besides "down and away" like Maddux did and be successful. They are back to high fastball approaches - or as Skip Carry would say "they climb the ladder" more. And hitters who only know launch angle (called an uppercut in ye olde days) can't adjust and "tomahawk" the pitch for a hit.

Watch a game and when these guys k today - every right hand hitter steps in the bucket, pulls his head out, and is swinging under the pitch trying to yank it - and the dam ball is 3 inches outside. It's wretched to watch. The problem ain't the pitching - it's the hitting approach these guys take.

[Rex54]

Man you are dense. Velocity is not up. They changed where they measure speed of pitch in 2017 due to improvements in technology. Statcast picks it up out of the hand - it used to be measured about 10 feet in front of home plate.

And spin rate is just a metric. What spin rate has done has gotten pitchers more comfortable in believing that movement is real, and that they can pitch in other areas besides "down and away" like Maddux did and be successful. They are back to high fastball approaches - or as Skip Carry would say "they climb the ladder" more. And hitters who only know launch angle (called an uppercut in ye olde days) can't adjust and "tomahawk" the pitch for a hit.

Watch a game and when these guys k today - every right hand hitter steps in the bucket, pulls his head out, and is swinging under the pitch trying to yank it - and the dam ball is 3 inches outside. It's wretched to watch. The problem ain't the pitching - it's the hitting approach these guys take.

And thus ends the debate. The readers can decide for themselves which argument makes the most sense to explain why the state of baseball is where it is regarding the K's, HR's, BB's and approaches. I think my analysis does a much better job at that and my solutions are realistically the only way to get baseball back to a watchable equilibrium.

[BrunswickDawg]

This guy seems to have learned an effective approach, and his team seems to like it

[Really Clark?]

Again, here is the disconnect. The hitters today aren't "flawed". Just like the unwatchable NBA shooting all those 3's isn't "flawed". The analytics nerds have recognized that the BB/HR is so much more valuable they are willing to completely sell out for it on a risk/reward scale.

You might normally say "two strike approach, put ball in play" but they say "no, still try for power because why not". And they're right! With the velocity and shifts hitters, GM's and organizations on a league-wide scale have recognized that the value of striking out isn't much lower than a ball in play. The natural K% is higher now than ever because of velocity and spin rate. The natural batting average is lower now because of higher K's and shifts. The UNNATURAL movement even higher on K% and lower on batting average is due to CORRECTLY approaching hitting the way teams are doing, correctly in the sense of "here's what it takes to score the most runs in this environment"

The only way to change this is to make the "correct" aka the most analytical approach be to limit strikeouts and put the balls in play. The analytics nerds will always find out which approach leads to maximum runs. The task is to change the environment to achieve the style of game that is enjoyable for the fans.

When I say hitting flaws, I’m talking about the actual art of hitting (mechanics of the swing, absolutes that must occur in a high level swing, bat path adjustments, reading of the pitcher movement, reading of the spin, pitch to hit knowledge, approach, etc.) not what analytics are telling them to do with their approach. That’s 2 separate things or at most just a small portion of the entire part. The analytics are great in so many ways but it has caused a lot of negative impact with the actual art of hitting, players either on their own or being taught to try to manufacture a result that creates issues in the swing and approach that actually limits their individual potential to succeed. As it continues to be taught to young players the worse the professional hitters will become overall because that is what teams have to work with. There is a self fulling prophecy to the analytics and swing mechanics going that direction. Changing the game like you want, does nothing to fix that. Especially moving the mound back. You are just giving hitters a big reaction advantage and time for a bigger load to jerk through the zone harder. They won’t think about ball in play more, it will just happen because you are giving them more time but will do nothing to change their approach.

BTW, what about the majority of the pitchers in the league who don’t throw 97+? You are taken guys who are very good at 92, that pitchers speed to hitter reaction time now looks closer to 89-90. You also make slower bigger breaking balls hard to control lower that off speed usage. There was a pretty good article discussing this topic from analytics MLB personnel and physicist. There was not a consensus on what would occur and they looked at moving the mound back at 3 different distances. The point that had the biggest consensus is that runs would go up, analysts by teams averaged .25-.3 runs per game per team. The majority believe and the analytics was showing many of them that doing this actually changed absolutely nothing to the approach and 3 outcomes of AB’s we see today, in fact believe it to increase by a factor. The balls in play issue, which is what this was being centered around, would occur but that result was strictly because hitters would have somewhere around 4-8% more actual to precognitive reaction time. The approach of the 3 outcome AB’s would also increase. The were some analysts, a minority, who thought pitchers who had good hard breaking stuff might actually have a bigger advantage than hitters allowing the ball to move more and increase K’a as well.

Also, you have to take the nature of physics as it equates to launch angle approaches. Moving back the mound will give you natural augmenting of the bat path to increase that attack angle upward. It will negate some of the 4 seam fastballs riding up through the zone allowing gravity to put the ball on a bigger dropping plane. That’s why it will be interesting to see if pitching has adjusted throughout this season as it appears to have occurred early on. That attack plan by pitching, if continues, will have to cause teams to adjust bat path if it lowers run production by the offenses. Still too early to tell though.

I’m not against studying the effects and how it may effect the game, in reference to moving back the mound. For me, and others, we think it may have to be considered at some point for safety component for pitchers as well. Exit velocity off the bats may require the league to consider reaction time for pitchers to defend themselves. 116 mph is not defendable by a pitcher back at them. But that is expanding the topic away from just the pure debate about offense and pitching.

[Schultzy]

I think it’s because hitters can keep their job hitting .210 if they’re hitting enough homers.

[Quaoarsking]

I don't really "study the game" that much, mostly been a casual Braves fan over the years. I just loathe what analytics has done to all sports. You can't even watch MLB anymore. I wish we could see the league leaders around 80 stolen bases, 50 HR, .360 averages, and 10 K/9. I miss hit-and-runs, squeeze plays, etc. I miss the mid-range jump shot. I miss the I-formation. I'm not interested in time-wasting discussions on the problems being the hitter's approaches when they have no choice but to take those approaches to win games. That's the message that needs to be hammered home and the prism which this needs to be looked at. Environment necessitates approach. Blindly saying "durrr just change approach" is nonproductive.

Sounds like a personal problem, not a baseball problem, that MLB is not living up to your arbitrary personal preferences.

Analytics have been part of baseball since the 1800s. The only difference now is the computing power.

[Quaoarsking]

Seriously, who doesn't love to watch their team take a hit away from some predictable fool? "Thought you had a hit? Not today loser, thanks to math!"

Shifting is easily one of the top 5 most entertaining parts of baseball. Tactics and strategy are fun.

[Rex54]

Sounds like a personal problem, not a baseball problem, that MLB is not living up to your arbitrary personal preferences.

Analytics have been part of baseball since the 1800s. The only difference now is the computing power.

Well it seems that it's absolutely a baseball problem since the leadership of the game is looking at how to remedy the problem. You may be fine watching 6 hit, 30 strikeout games but that's boring as hell to me and the vast majority.