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Thread: Keep an eye on Tuesday

  1. #21
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    Could it hold together that long?
    These have been cycling so it's possible but far from guaranteed.

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  3. #23
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    Another good pic from Hinds county

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0bPIAVW...pg&name=medium

  4. #24
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Bump for updates

  5. #25
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    Hey DD according to GFS you and CC gonna be in the crosshairs tomorrow evening.

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Hey DD according to GFS you and CC gonna be in the crosshairs tomorrow evening.
    I'm not surprised lol! My son's graduating from usm tomorrow night too! Ought to be an interesting evening.

  7. #27
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    I'm not surprised lol! My son's graduating from usm tomorrow night too! Ought to be an interesting evening.
    Congratulations Brother!!!! Stay safe.

  8. #28
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Hey DD according to GFS you and CC gonna be in the crosshairs tomorrow evening.
    Thanks man.

  9. #29
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DownwardDawg View Post
    Congratulations Brother!!!! Stay safe.
    Appreciate that! You too!

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Pretty impressive. Is that the one that the guy lost his drone while videoing?

  11. #31
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's storms. The HRRR is developing a morning round of storms and then an afternoon round. The afternoon round will be the one to watch, but how bad it is will depend on how long the morning round hangs around and how long the atmosphere has to reload before the afternoon round kicks off. There will be very little cap tomorrow so storm mode could get very messy very quickly. That will ramp down the tornado threat leaving large hail and straight line winds as the main threat. If any kind of cap can hold storm initiation at bay until mid afternoon then storm mode would at least start out discrete and have a little more of a tornado threat. The HRRR is showing a few discrete cells from south of meridian up to east of Birmingham tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main line. The NAM3K is showing almost no morning convection and storm mode initiating as discrete cells and staying that way longer before going linear. If that scenario plays out then expect more of a tornado threat. My thoughts is if the cap is basically nil then storms will be popping up most of the day and quickly become a huge mess and reducing the tornado threat. Reduce...not eliminate. Instability tomorrow will be extremely high with models showing 3,000-5,0000 CAPE values. Typically, you just need it 1,500 or so to get severe storms. Shear values, however, will be more meager so storm updrafts will have a harder time maintaining themselves and rotating.

    The evening runs of the high res models should be in around 10 or so tonight. I'll take a look at them and update again.

  12. #32
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's storms. The HRRR is developing a morning round of storms and then an afternoon round. The afternoon round will be the one to watch, but how bad it is will depend on how long the morning round hangs around and how long the atmosphere has to reload before the afternoon round kicks off. There will be very little cap tomorrow so storm mode could get very messy very quickly. That will ramp down the tornado threat leaving large hail and straight line winds as the main threat. If any kind of cap can hold storm initiation at bay until mid afternoon then storm mode would at least start out discrete and have a little more of a tornado threat. The HRRR is showing a few discrete cells from south of meridian up to east of Birmingham tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main line. The NAM3K is showing almost no morning convection and storm mode initiating as discrete cells and staying that way longer before going linear. If that scenario plays out then expect more of a tornado threat. My thoughts is if the cap is basically nil then storms will be popping up most of the day and quickly become a huge mess and reducing the tornado threat. Reduce...not eliminate. Instability tomorrow will be extremely high with models showing 3,000-5,0000 CAPE values. Typically, you just need it 1,500 or so to get severe storms. Shear values, however, will be more meager so storm updrafts will have a harder time maintaining themselves and rotating.

    The evening runs of the high res models should be in around 10 or so tonight. I'll take a look at them and update again.

    Thanks for the update!!!

  13. #33
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's storms. The HRRR is developing a morning round of storms and then an afternoon round. The afternoon round will be the one to watch, but how bad it is will depend on how long the morning round hangs around and how long the atmosphere has to reload before the afternoon round kicks off. There will be very little cap tomorrow so storm mode could get very messy very quickly. That will ramp down the tornado threat leaving large hail and straight line winds as the main threat. If any kind of cap can hold storm initiation at bay until mid afternoon then storm mode would at least start out discrete and have a little more of a tornado threat. The HRRR is showing a few discrete cells from south of meridian up to east of Birmingham tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main line. The NAM3K is showing almost no morning convection and storm mode initiating as discrete cells and staying that way longer before going linear. If that scenario plays out then expect more of a tornado threat. My thoughts is if the cap is basically nil then storms will be popping up most of the day and quickly become a huge mess and reducing the tornado threat. Reduce...not eliminate. Instability tomorrow will be extremely high with models showing 3,000-5,0000 CAPE values. Typically, you just need it 1,500 or so to get severe storms. Shear values, however, will be more meager so storm updrafts will have a harder time maintaining themselves and rotating.

    The evening runs of the high res models should be in around 10 or so tonight. I'll take a look at them and update again.
    Thanks man! Keep us posted!

  14. #34
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Not really much change with the 00z models. Maybe the only thing of note is the NAM3k is trending more towards the HRRR with a messy afternoon storm mode. Also seemed to show a little bit better shot at discrete cells further north. Even though, I'm still not convinced tomorrow sees a lot of tornadoes, I do think it sees a few. Biggest threats look to be large hail early on mainly in the western part of the state and damaging straight line winds statewide. The tornado threat will be statewide, too.

  15. #35
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    Large area tornado watch just issued for central Ms into Al. Also there is a cell south of Brandon headed east that looks like it could stay together quite a while.

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    How do the morning models look svd?

  17. #37
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Since my truck / chase vehicle is in the shop having to borrow the wife's car to chase today. She's thrilled let me tell you. So far, storms are having a hard time maintaining rotation. Had one a few minutes ago Jen over Starkville but lost rotation just as it got to me. Storms will still be more than capable of large hail and high winds over most of the state. The afternoon round is just now kicking off so see how well they can take advantage of peak day item heating.

  18. #38
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Since my truck / chase vehicle is in the shop having to borrow the wife's car to chase today. She's thrilled let me tell you. So far, storms are having a hard time maintaining rotation. Had one a few minutes ago Jen over Starkville but lost rotation just as it got to me. Storms will still be more than capable of large hail and high winds over most of the state. The afternoon round is just now kicking off so see how well they can take advantage of peak day item heating.
    Man if you mess her car up you'll never hear the end of it! Stay safe out there!

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Since my truck / chase vehicle is in the shop having to borrow the wife's car to chase today. She's thrilled let me tell you. So far, storms are having a hard time maintaining rotation. Had one a few minutes ago Jen over Starkville but lost rotation just as it got to me. Storms will still be more than capable of large hail and high winds over most of the state. The afternoon round is just now kicking off so see how well they can take advantage of peak day item heating.
    Man telling you that she hates Jimmy Buffet and now won't let you use her car to follow your dreams thats grounds in some areas! *****

  20. #40
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    Round 2 getting its act together around Shreveport,

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