Ok baseball analytics guys and message board coaches...

[CadaverDawg]

All great points, but the analytics guys said you bat your top hitters at the top of the lineup so you maximize their number of at bats. So at what point is he as good of a hitter as his average says he is, and if so, why are the analytics guys not pushing for him to be at the top of the order? I mean, I thought you live and die by the analytics...not pick and choose when to apply them. Am I wrong on this?

For the record I'm fine with where he is, as long as he's in the lineup. I'm just creating discussion and debate

[KOdawg1]

I think the main argument to that is most don't think Cumbest is one of the top hitters on the team. I personally would leave him where he is, but to give Cadaver some more ammo, when you look at Cumbest's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which pretty much configures a player's luck, Cumbest has a .263 BABIP, which means compared to his batting average, he's actually been a little unlucky. So you could make the argument that Cumbest is still hitting at a high average DESPITE having some bad luck hitting it right at defenders.

Edited to add: it's important to note that Cumbest has roughly 1/3 the ABs as the rest of the regulars, so his sample size is significantly smaller

[CadaverDawg]

I think the main argument to that is most don't think Cumbest is one of the top hitters on the team. I personally would leave him where he is, but to give Cadaver some more ammo, when you look at Cumbest's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which pretty much configures a player's luck, Cumbest has a .263 BABIP, which means compared to his batting average, he's actually been a little unlucky. So you could make the argument that Cumbest is still hitting at a high average DESPITE having some bad luck hitting it right at defenders.

Edited to add: it's important to note that Cumbest has roughly 1/3 the ABs as the rest of the regulars, so his sample size is significantly smaller

Wow, that's interesting

[KOdawg1]

Wow, that's interesting

For comparison purposes, Tanner Allen has a BABIP of .397, which means he's benefiting from a little luck

[Really Clark?]

I think the main argument to that is most don't think Cumbest is one of the top hitters on the team. I personally would leave him where he is, but to give Cadaver some more ammo, when you look at Cumbest's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which pretty much configures a player's luck, Cumbest has a .263 BABIP, which means compared to his batting average, he's actually been a little unlucky. So you could make the argument that Cumbest is still hitting at a high average DESPITE having some bad luck hitting it right at defenders.

Edited to add: it's important to note that Cumbest has roughly 1/3 the ABs as the rest of the regulars, so his sample size is significantly smaller

Your BABIP is way off. He is at .486 which is very high and he most likely will regress. Hits-HR/AB-K-HR+ Sac is the formula

[KOdawg1]

Your BABIP is way off. He is at .486 which is very high and he most likely will regress

Hell maybe I did the math wrong. That's what I get for trying to be smart.

(H - HR)/(AB - HR - K + SF)

(21-3)/(56-16-3+1)

18/38 = .474.

So yeah, forget what I said before. He's been VERY lucky and will come back down to earth.

[CadaverDawg]

Well I think we can all agree that Cumbest has been a pleasant surprise. Personally, I wish he'd quit football and focus on baseball, but I get it....not many have the luxury of being able to play both at a SEC level.

[Really Clark?]

All great points, but the analytics guys said you bat your top hitters at the top of the lineup so you maximize their number of at bats. So at what point is he as good of a hitter as his average says he is, and if so, why are the analytics guys not pushing for him to be at the top of the order? I mean, I thought you live and die by the analytics...not pick and choose when to apply them. Am I wrong on this?

For the record I'm fine with where he is, as long as he's in the lineup. I'm just creating discussion and debate

He only has 25 SEC AB’s, let’s see where he is after next weekend. Personally, he would already been in the lineup more 2-3 weeks ago for me to already be at 40-50 AB’s,which would be the number I would like to see to broaden the discussion. Analytics are great tool but you also have to have a sample size to have a better idea of projections. The more you have the clearer the picture. We just don’t have that yet.

The K rate and BABIP are a problem for him in the analysis, the way he actually swung the bat this weekend and making adjustments at the plate this weekend are positives. Let’s give it a little more time to see what he can project going forward just a little better. I agree I liked the move and liked it for at least 3 weeks now.

[Todd4State]

All great points, but the analytics guys said you bat your top hitters at the top of the lineup so you maximize their number of at bats. So at what point is he as good of a hitter as his average says he is, and if so, why are the analytics guys not pushing for him to be at the top of the order? I mean, I thought you live and die by the analytics...not pick and choose when to apply them. Am I wrong on this?

For the record I'm fine with where he is, as long as he's in the lineup. I'm just creating discussion and debate

What a lot of baseball people have learned is you have to take the best from analytics and the best from what you see and know about a player to make a more informed decision.

[CadaverDawg]

He only has 25 SEC AB’s, let’s see where he is after next weekend. Personally, he would already been in the lineup more 2-3 weeks ago for me to already be at 40-50 AB’s,which would be the number I would like to see to broaden the discussion. Analytics are great tool but you also have to have a sample size to have a better idea of projections. The more you have the clearer the picture. We just don’t have that yet.

The K rate and BABIP are a problem for him in the analysis, the way he actually swung the bat this weekend and making adjustments at the plate this weekend are positives. Let’s give it a little more time to see what he can project going forward just a little better. I agree I liked the move and liked it for at least 3 weeks now.

Good stuff, I agree. Enjoy the discussion on this

[CadaverDawg]

What a lot of baseball people have learned is you have to take the best from analytics and the best from what you see and know about a player to make a more informed decision.

Very true

[KOdawg1]

I think it was Jay Powell that said on the broadcast that he's also starting to crouch more in his stance which shortens the zone and is helping him.

[AlSwearengen]

You can watch Cumbest and see that there are holes in his swing (a lot of this team is that way). He hasn’t played as much baseball as most SEC players so it will be interesting to see how he progresses with experience (same old argument with him and football). He can do well against avg SEC pitching but can look foolish against the good ones.

One thing to consider with this team, b/c of the “averageness” of the order, Lemonis may be trying to maximize matchups and pinch hitting opportunities later in the game by staggering L and R hitters in the lineup.

[AlSwearengen]

What a lot of baseball people have learned is you have to take the best from analytics and the best from what you see and know about a player to make a more informed decision.

Spot on.

[MetEdDawg]

I think it was Jay Powell that said on the broadcast that he's also starting to crouch more in his stance which shortens the zone and is helping him.

That's the big thing I've noticed. It's helped his pitch recognition a little more. Cumbest has the tools to play baseball at the next level. But developmentally he's way behind because he's a 2 sport guy.

If he's ever going to get better he needs consistent plying time, which he's getting more of. If it were me he would hit in the 6 hole next weekend. You don't want to change his spot in the lineup too soon because he will get pitched a lot differently sitting in the middle of the lineup and I don't think he's ready for that.

Let him stay low pressure in the bottom half where he will have a chance to drive a few guys in and extend innings with good ABs.

[Lord McBuckethead]

double post.

[Lord McBuckethead]

7 hole can be a great RBI spot. 5 hole is his likely spot if he keeps swinging it. Too early to move him IMO.

Look before we even think about moving him, we need to make sure he is actually going to play the majority of games. For some reason, Skinner gets the nod over him and for the life of me....I don't understand it. I still think we need to break up the order in which we have been running the last few weeks.

If we stay with our current order, except have Hatcher and Skinner out of the order for Mule and anyone else that can play 1st, then we are immediately better for 2021 run. I think Hatcher may have issues with his eyes. He just cannot see the ball. He may want to get his blood sugar levels checked or something. That is the only explanation that makes sense to me.

I would try to get Hancock at First when he is not playing catcher. We need the DH spot for McDoubles. Dude just makes solid contact over and over, but we cannot take Hancock's pop out of the lineup. Then there is Leggett, who shows a ton of pop. Maybe Leggett at first and keep Hancock as DH. I don't know, but we need more people that are looking to smash a line drive in the lineup. Line drives win championships. We need it.

As I type this, someone is jogging down University during a lighting storm and downpour. Idiot.

[Lord McBuckethead]

You can watch Cumbest and see that there are holes in his swing (a lot of this team is that way). He hasn’t played as much baseball as most SEC players so it will be interesting to see how he progresses with experience (same old argument with him and football). He can do well against avg SEC pitching but can look foolish against the good ones.

One thing to consider with this team, b/c of the “averageness” of the order, Lemonis may be trying to maximize matchups and pinch hitting opportunities later in the game by staggering L and R hitters in the lineup.

Good SEC pitching makes almost every hitter look terrible. Rowdy and Allen look like Freshmen out there on Friday nights....that is until the bullpen comes into the game.

[Rex54]

For comparison purposes, Tanner Allen has a BABIP of .397, which means he's benefiting from a little luck

No, it means he's been hitting the piss out of the ball gap to gap.

[Commercecomet24]

What a lot of baseball people have learned is you have to take the best from analytics and the best from what you see and know about a player to make a more informed decision.

Yep, this, great stuff, Todd! And I wll also add you have to make in game decisions based on what you're seeing at that time. There's a flow and rhythm to each game and what each player is doing during that game. Great coaches get to know their players and can tell when a pitcher is done and needs to come out or if a hitter is just overmatched and you need a pinch hitter,etc... At least that's been my experience. I love the stats of baseball and what they tell you but there's so much more to the game than just numbers.