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Thread: New Lineup tonight vs. Southern

  1. #121
    Senior Member Really Clark?'s Avatar
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    Good lord what break

  2. #122
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    Y?all as inconsistent as Cerantola has been. His stuff is filthy! I?m so rooting for him. He is a key piece of the puzzle to get to Omaha

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Really Clark? View Post
    20 AB?s is a little over 20% of his total AB?s but more importantly, it is his LAST 20 AB?s that completely debunks your statement that he hasn?t had an increase in K?s. 6 of his 19 K?s came over his last 20 AB?s which definitely contradicts your statement that he hasn?t had an increase in K?s. He absolutely has.
    If you want to take a 20 AB stretch and want to apply any statistical significance to that the K% better be damn north of 75%.

    30% K rate in 20 AB's.... it's sheer stupidity to say that means anything.

  4. #124
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    If Cerantola figures it out he will be so nasty. Reminds me of the issues Cole Gordon had. Once he figured it out he became pretty amazing. Funny thing is Cerantolas stuff is way better

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgcap View Post
    Y?all as inconsistent as Cerantola has been. His stuff is filthy! I?m so rooting for him. He is a key piece of the puzzle to get to Omaha
    Disagree on key piece to Omaha. But I hope he continues to get midweek work.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex54 View Post
    If you want to take a 20 AB stretch and want to apply any statistical significance to that the K% better be damn north of 75%.

    30% K rate in 20 AB's.... it's sheer stupidity to say that means anything.
    I hope Hatcher gets it going soon. But at this point, Cumbest has earned more AB's. So either Hancock to first and Cumbest to DH. Or Allen to first and Cumbest to RF.

  7. #127
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    My boy Caleb getting an ab. He's gonna be a good one!

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoopsDawg View Post
    Disagree on key piece to Omaha. But I hope he continues to get midweek work.
    Totally agree at this point. But if he finds consistency we have an amazing help at closing doors in tough situations. Starting is probably over but consistent command he becomes so important in weekend situations

  9. #129
    Senior Member Really Clark?'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex54 View Post
    If you want to take a 20 AB stretch and want to apply any statistical significance to that the K% better be damn north of 75%.

    30% K rate in 20 AB's.... it's sheer stupidity to say that means anything.
    No it’s stupid to say he hasn’t had an increase in his K’s when it’s false. To go from a 17.3% K rate over his first 75 AB’s to a 30% K rate is a jump and a concerning one. 12.7% higher over his last 20 AB’s. To go further, which I know is meaningless to you, Saber metrics only needs 60 PA to decided a K rate is meaningful stat and not just an anomaly. So a full third of that number of his last AB’s gives us a definite rise within that subset of data. If someone is striking out 75% of the time over 20 AB’s and you think it’s only then they are in a slump? You are clueless

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Really Clark? View Post
    No it’s stupid to say he hasn’t had an increase in his K’s when it’s false. To go from a 17.3% K rate over his first 75 AB’s to a 30% K rate is a jump and a concerning one. 12.7% higher over his last 20 AB’s. To go further, which I know is meaningless to you, Saber metrics only needs 60 PA to decided a K rate is meaningful stat and not just an anomaly. So a full third of that number of his last AB’s gives us a definite rise within that subset of data. If someone is striking out 75% of the time over 20 AB’s and you think it’s only then they are in a slump? You are clueless
    I agree if he maintains a 30% K rate over the next 40 AB's then you are on to something. But until then you are a moron, as your own post indicates. You can't take 20 AB's and extrapolate anything let alone such a minute jump! Which was my point, it would take a 75+% rate in that small sample to be meaningful.

  11. #131
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    Hatcher starting over Cumbest no longer can happen. Cumbest has earned it.

  12. #132
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    I mean holt shit the absolute stupidity. I guarandamntee you I could randomly pick 10 SEC hitters and 9 would have a 20 AB stretch during the season where their K% jumps 12% from their norm. I mean the absolute ****ing stupidity! Do you really maintain that a 20% K guy is going to automatically just K exactly 2 times every 10 AB's methodically throughout the whole season?! Of course not..... You might have two games where you K 5 times. You might have 4 games where you K once. It doesn't mean anything. It's sheer randomness of a baseball season. You can't cherry-pick 20 AB's and draw ANY significance unless someone damn near K's 20 times in those 20 AB's.

    Dummy.

  13. #133
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    Sweet swing but too soft for SEC pitching, needs to stop being a puss.

  14. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cowbell View Post
    Hatcher starting over Cumbest no longer can happen. Cumbest has earned it.
    Nah

  15. #135
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    Whatever some believe the talent of Hatcher and Cerantola are mandatory for winning. These 2 are so talented and with them playing too their potential is so imperative. I understand the questions but we need these guys.

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    #5 needs to get rid of his batting avg swing and start attacking as well.

  17. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schultzy View Post
    #5 needs to get rid of his batting avg swing and start attacking as well.
    Truth

  18. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgcap View Post
    Whatever some believe the talent of Hatcher and Cerantola are mandatory for winning. These 2 are so talented and with them playing too their potential is so imperative. I understand the questions but we need these guys.
    It’s not talent IMO it’s mindset.

  19. #139
    Senior Member Really Clark?'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex54 View Post
    I agree if he maintains a 30% K rate over the next 40 AB's then you are on to something. But until then you are a moron, as your own post indicates. You can't take 20 AB's and extrapolate anything let alone such a minute jump! Which was my point, it would take a 75+% rate in that small sample to be meaningful.
    Uh...that is exactly what is done in baseball. Every single day. Heck in game decisions are made on what players have done in that one game much less over 20 AB’s. This is EXACTLY what baseball does. It is all about subset of data collection and applying that knowledge to every single pitch, AB, and game, splits, etc., etc. etc. You are the only one showing your ignorance. 20 AB’s absolutely gives you very important information.

    A simple metric is using a couple points of his raw data for the season and that gives us an idea of how he is hitting. You take his average of .200 (.114 in SEC play), K rate for the year of 20% (23% in SEC play) and his walk rate of 7% (less than 3% in SEC play). Just with those few raw numbers we know his plate discipline has been absolutely horrible because those walk rates are at best below average and in SEC play anything below 4% is absolutely awful. That directly correlates to his contact or lack there of in his case since he is hitting only .200 (.114 in the SEC). The overall and SEC total K rate is actually the best of his stats of those 3, being considered average to below average. But with that increasing over the last 20 AB’s, and you see his average has plummeted .074 points since the LSU series. They work together to paint a picture of someone who is in a bad slump and his plate discipline is a huge factor with his K rate increase, decrease in walks (such as they were to begin with) and his average plummeting .074 points means that he is also having a lot of bad contact.

    Again. I hope and pray that tonight gets him started because this type of slump is horrible to go through. But make no mistake he has been in a slump.

  20. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schultzy View Post
    It’s not talent IMO it’s mindset.
    Sorry. That was the point I was trying to make. We need them to find the mindset to use their gifts. These 2 guys have amazing talent they just don?t trust it. Others struggle for a bit and come out of it. These 2 need to be trusted a bit longer. When they get it I say we are gonna say Holy hell!! I for one hope we give them a chance to climb out of their self doubt. I have no doubt they are difference makers

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