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Thread: Keep an eye on next Thursday

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    I agree on hoping people aren't complacent. This is a completely different scenario than last week. While this one could bust it's not as likely. And something that hasn't been mentioned...these storms will be traveling 50-60mph. So if you go under a warning don't go outside trying to see the tornado. They will be on you before you know it - especially if you're depending on your radar app on your phone. Average radar lag time is 5 minutes so at these speeds the storms can be ahead of radar images by 4-6 miles.
    How is Brandon looking in the models? Live near downtown

  2. #42
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    We've become weather pussies. Every day is an alert day of some kind.

  3. #43
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    SVD, I'm driving back to Starkville sometime later tomorrow afternoon. What time should all of this have moved out of the area? I'm coming from Memphis.

  4. #44
    Senior Member shoeless joe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    We've become weather pussies. Every day is an alert day of some kind.
    Definitely some truth to this. And I absolutely appreciate what the guys on here do as I am fascinated by all weather types myself.

    I wonder a lot about whether the weather is worse now than 25 yrs ago or if we just have so much technology and better understanding that it seems that way because we are more aware of everything goin on.

  5. #45
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve View Post
    SVD, I'm driving back to Starkville sometime later tomorrow afternoon. What time should all of this have moved out of the area? I'm coming from Memphis.
    Models currently have the storms firing along the I-55 corridor around noon give or take and exiting into AL around 6:00.

  6. #46
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shoeless joe View Post
    Definitely some truth to this. And I absolutely appreciate what the guys on here do as I am fascinated by all weather types myself.

    I wonder a lot about whether the weather is worse now than 25 yrs ago or if we just have so much technology and better understanding that it seems that way because we are more aware of everything goin on.
    I appreciate the technology. It's a huge help! It's just this whole level 3 alert day or level 4 alert day etc. is out of control. Kids are getting out early today here and it's not even raining or even warm. Maybe it's due to the trailer parks in MS. We all have a better shot of dying in wreck going to work, than getting hit by a tornado. And my place has just missed three or four in the last year. TV stations stay on the weather repeating the same thing over and over for hours. Geez, if people aren't smart enough to cover their asses, stop!

  7. #47
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shoeless joe View Post
    Definitely some truth to this. And I absolutely appreciate what the guys on here do as I am fascinated by all weather types myself.

    I wonder a lot about whether the weather is worse now than 25 yrs ago or if we just have so much technology and better understanding that it seems that way because we are more aware of everything goin on.
    Weather isn't worse. We just have such good technology now we are better able to forecast it and the 24 hour news cycles puts everything that happens front and center. If it bleeds it leads.

  8. #48
    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    I appreciate the technology. It's a huge help! It's just this whole level 3 alert day or level 4 alert day etc. is out of control. Kids are getting out early today here and it's not even raining or even warm. Maybe it's due to the trailer parks in MS. We all have a better shot of dying in wreck going to work, than getting hit by a tornado. And my place has just missed three or four in the last year. TV stations stay on the weather repeating the same thing over and over for hours. Geez, if people aren't smart enough to cover their asses, stop!
    Technology is great but still far from perfect... as seen last week. If the national weather service and all the groups that research could get better funding, I believe forecasting within few days could get even better. if the amount of data being observed with weather balloons, planes, and other instruments ...could grow a lot more,the data out would be even more accurate.

    I strongly disagree with calling people "pussies" for respecting weather more now... Especially with what the pandemic taught us last year, school can be taught from home for a day if needed. just like there won't be snow days anymore.
    I have no idea why any school in your area would be releasing early today though.. (i might be missing something though)

    There is nothing wrong with tv stations staying on the air when there is an immediate danger to the counties they cover such as severe thunderstorm or a tornado warning. If you don't like the tv station you are watching. change the channel and see if the other channels aren't doing the same.

    I mean you are kinda right, if people aren't smart enough to cover their asses..and learn a little about weather.. why should anyone help them.. why should anyone help anyone with anything in life???

    Come on man...

  9. #49
    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg View Post
    Technology is great but still far from perfect... as seen last week. If the national weather service and all the groups that research could get better funding, I believe forecasting within few days could get even better. if the amount of data being observed with weather balloons, planes, and other instruments ...could grow a lot more,the data out would be even more accurate.

    I strongly disagree with calling people "pussies" for respecting weather more now... Especially with what the pandemic taught us last year, school can be taught from home for a day if needed. just like there won't be snow days anymore.
    I have no idea why any school in your area would be releasing early today though.. (i might be missing something though)

    There is nothing wrong with tv stations staying on the air when there is an immediate danger to the counties they cover such as severe thunderstorm or a tornado warning. If you don't like the tv station you are watching. change the channel and see if the other channels aren't doing the same.

    I mean you are kinda right, if people aren't smart enough to cover their asses..and learn a little about weather.. why should anyone help them.. why should anyone help anyone with anything in life???

    Come on man...
    My kid's ACT scores went down after distance learning. They shouldn't be out of school. And you can't make stupid people seek shelter if they just don't care. After a couple hours, it's pointless.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    My kid's ACT scores went down after distance learning. They shouldn't be out of school. And you can't make stupid people seek shelter if they just don't care. After a couple hours, it's pointless.
    I can't speak to what happened to your kids. It could be the school or it could be you, and I ain't their parents nor know your life to judge you like that..

    You can talk about how many stupid people don't care... but how about how many people it DOES help. It's been proven that deaths from weather are down thanks to technology advances.. from advance warning to the ability to alert people via texts or apps in seconds. It's far from pointless and is very important.

    If you don't think they should be out of school.. do your diligence and make your voice heard. voice your objection to the school. then the school board... then your local government.. all the way up to the mayor if you like.

  11. #51
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    SPC contemplating an upgrade of a high risk at the overnight update. Parameters still continue a major tornado outbreak tomorrow for east MS north of I-20. Two possible mitigating factors would be morning rain and clouds hanging around and not letting the sun through to reload the atmosphere and there being too many storms forming and fighting for energy leading to a messy rainy conglomerate. Any storms that can get out by themselves will be bad.

  12. #52
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    From Jackson NWS:

    Severe storms will be possible across the entire forecast area
    Thursday. However, current high-res model trends continue to suggest
    the area of best threat for the most intense and destructive fast-
    moving super cells, will reside over the area mainly along and
    northeast of a Grenada to Jackson to Meridian line. It`ll be here
    that the best conglomeration of peak severe parameters in afternoon
    heating are expected. Regardless, in the most intense storms,
    tornadoes will be likely, with some of those tornadoes potentially
    being strong and long-tracked. Damaging winds up to 80 mph and hail
    greater than golf ball size are also possible.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    From Jackson NWS:

    Severe storms will be possible across the entire forecast area
    Thursday. However, current high-res model trends continue to suggest
    the area of best threat for the most intense and destructive fast-
    moving super cells, will reside over the area mainly along and
    northeast of a Grenada to Jackson to Meridian line. It`ll be here
    that the best conglomeration of peak severe parameters in afternoon
    heating are expected. Regardless, in the most intense storms,
    tornadoes will be likely, with some of those tornadoes potentially
    being strong and long-tracked. Damaging winds up to 80 mph and hail
    greater than golf ball size are also possible.
    So the northeastern quadrant of Mississippi and north Alabama is the bullseye. Hmm - that includes me. Last time we were right on the edge, this time more toward the center.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    So the northeastern quadrant of Mississippi and north Alabama is the bullseye. Hmm - that includes me. Last time we were right on the edge, this time more toward the center.
    Time to go visit Commencent and Downward Dogs!!

  15. #55
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    Tusk-nado ally right in the bullseye tomorrow. Keep your ears up and your head down Tusk.

  16. #56
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Time to go visit Commencent and Downward Dogs!!
    Come on down!!!!'

  17. #57
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Time to go visit Commencent and Downward Dogs!!
    I'm here brother! Come on!

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    I'm here brother! Come on!
    Not when you see whats about to hit ya'll from the south.

  19. #59
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Hearing some strong rumors that unless something changes in the next couple of hours expect an upgrade to a high risk for parts of MS and AL at the 1:00am update.

    Also, of note the latest model trends are starting to show a capping inversion setting up over the area tomorrow. That is a double edged sword. It will keep the number of storms down from what it could be, but those that break the cap will be all by themselves and in an environment that will allow them to go nuclear.

  20. #60
    Senior Member shoeless joe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Hearing some strong rumors that unless something changes in the next couple of hours expect an upgrade to a high risk for parts of MS and AL at the 1:00am update.

    Also, of note the latest model trends are starting to show a capping inversion setting up over the area tomorrow. That is a double edged sword. It will keep the number of storms down from what it could be, but those that break the cap will be all by themselves and in an environment that will allow them to go nuclear.
    Laubhan just mentioned this several times on his forecast. Sounded somewhat hopeful but also warned that it could backfire

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