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Thread: First spring severe threats on the horizon

  1. #21
    Senior Member THE Bruce Dickinson's Avatar
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    Is this storm on par

    With the 4/27/11 system ?

  2. #22
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by THE Bruce Dickinson View Post
    With the 4/27/11 system ?
    Nowhere close. That was a generational level event. This is more along the lines of an annual high end event.

  3. #23
    Senior Member THE Bruce Dickinson's Avatar
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    Well that?s some good news

    People were talking about this one with the same kind of hype. Still going to keep my head on a swivel. Thanks again!

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    Not butting in to yall's conversation but there seems to be a lot more hype now ABOUT EVERYTHING than there was 9 years ago. LOL

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Easter 2020 is my new benchmark.

  6. #26
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by THE Bruce Dickinson View Post
    People were talking about this one with the same kind of hype. Still going to keep my head on a swivel. Thanks again!
    The people doing that are either trying to increase clicks by scaring people or just clueless about how bad 4/27/11 was.

    Here are the facts as they present themselves now.

    This event will probably end up as a moderate risk day from the SPC. The environment is setting up to allow the formation of multiple discrete to semi discrete supercells...some of which will produce tornadoes. A few of those have the potential to be long tracked and violent. Additionally, the strongest storms could also produce hail up to tennis ball size and straight line winds up to 70-80mph.

    The 4/27/11 outbreak saw 360 confirmed tornadoes over a three day period with multiple ef-4 and ef-5 ratings. The severe parameters in place that day were all off the charts. Not just one or two parameters...every mother17ing one of them. There was nothing you could point to that said that factor might limit tornado potential that day. It was PlayStation level numbers. This Wednesday is the type event you see a couple times a year in the US. Very similar to this past Sunday in TX. To get something close to similar to 2011 you have to go back to 1974.

    That said, this Wednesday is looking very dangerous. The environment is setting to produce dangerous weather. If you go under a warning take it seriously and assume it to be worse case scenario until the storm has passed. There could be multiple rounds of storms so don't let your guard down once a storm or two passes. Don't try to ride out these storms in a mobile home. Plan now on what you will do if a warning is used for your area. If your plan is to take cover in a closet, make sure that closet is cleaned out now. If you know a friend with a storm shelter, offer to bring over a couple pizzas and a two liter of coke and spend the afternoon with them.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    The people doing that are either trying to increase clicks by scaring people or just clueless about how bad 4/27/11 was.

    Here are the facts as they present themselves now.

    This event will probably end up as a moderate risk day from the SPC. The environment is setting up to allow the formation of multiple discrete to semi discrete supercells...some of which will produce tornadoes. A few of those have the potential to be long tracked and violent. Additionally, the strongest storms could also produce hail up to tennis ball size and straight line winds up to 70-80mph.

    The 4/27/11 outbreak saw 360 confirmed tornadoes over a three day period with multiple ef-4 and ef-5 ratings. The severe parameters in place that day were all off the charts. Not just one or two parameters...every mother17ing one of them. There was nothing you could point to that said that factor might limit tornado potential that day. It was PlayStation level numbers. This Wednesday is the type event you see a couple times a year in the US. Very similar to this past Sunday in TX. To get something close to similar to 2011 you have to go back to 1974.

    That said, this Wednesday is looking very dangerous. The environment is setting to produce dangerous weather. If you go under a warning take it seriously and assume it to be worse case scenario until the storm has passed. There could be multiple rounds of storms so don't let your guard down once a storm or two passes. Don't try to ride out these storms in a mobile home. Plan now on what you will do if a warning is used for your area. If your plan is to take cover in a closet, make sure that closet is cleaned out now. If you know a friend with a storm shelter, offer to bring over a couple pizzas and a two liter of coke and spend the afternoon with them.
    There's a guy on TalkWeather, Fred Gossage, who apparently is a TV meterorologist somewhere (maybe Florence, AL?, but I don't think they have any TV stations based there) who's getting excited about what's going to happen Wednesday. I just checked in there today - haven't been on that site in years and it's changed a lot. There seems to be a bit of chest-beating on that site now.

  8. #28
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    Latest NWS forecast discussion and GFS has most of the severe WX along the I20 corridor up to and not including Rocketdogs house but leaving
    TUSK ok. DD you should be ok. Just alot of rain

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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Latest NWS forecast discussion and GFS has most of the severe WX along the I20 corridor up to and not including Rocketdogs house but leaving
    TUSK ok. DD you should be ok. Just alot of rain
    Yeah, I'm right on the edge of the whole thing, and that's fine with me.

  10. #30
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    Yeah, I'm right on the edge of the whole thing, and that's fine with me.
    Not sure exactly where you are located, but there have been some signals the threat area could expand further west. The day 2 update overnight will be highly anticipated. Will the area expand? Will it be upgraded to a moderate risk? What will be the tornado threat?

  11. #31
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Latest NWS forecast discussion and GFS has most of the severe WX along the I20 corridor up to and not including Rocketdogs house but leaving
    TUSK ok. DD you should be ok. Just alot of rain
    Thanks Brother!

  12. #32
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    The people doing that are either trying to increase clicks by scaring people or just clueless about how bad 4/27/11 was.

    Here are the facts as they present themselves now.

    This event will probably end up as a moderate risk day from the SPC. The environment is setting up to allow the formation of multiple discrete to semi discrete supercells...some of which will produce tornadoes. A few of those have the potential to be long tracked and violent. Additionally, the strongest storms could also produce hail up to tennis ball size and straight line winds up to 70-80mph.

    The 4/27/11 outbreak saw 360 confirmed tornadoes over a three day period with multiple ef-4 and ef-5 ratings. The severe parameters in place that day were all off the charts. Not just one or two parameters...every mother17ing one of them. There was nothing you could point to that said that factor might limit tornado potential that day. It was PlayStation level numbers. This Wednesday is the type event you see a couple times a year in the US. Very similar to this past Sunday in TX. To get something close to similar to 2011 you have to go back to 1974.

    That said, this Wednesday is looking very dangerous. The environment is setting to produce dangerous weather. If you go under a warning take it seriously and assume it to be worse case scenario until the storm has passed. There could be multiple rounds of storms so don't let your guard down once a storm or two passes. Don't try to ride out these storms in a mobile home. Plan now on what you will do if a warning is used for your area. If your plan is to take cover in a closet, make sure that closet is cleaned out now. If you know a friend with a storm shelter, offer to bring over a couple pizzas and a two liter of coke and spend the afternoon with them.
    That was insane. I love to hear you weather dudes talk about it.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Not sure exactly where you are located, but there have been some signals the threat area could expand further west. The day 2 update overnight will be highly anticipated. Will the area expand? Will it be upgraded to a moderate risk? What will be the tornado threat?
    I'm about two miles northeast of the Huntsville airport. I could almost throw a rock and hit the new Trash Pandas stadium, and could walk to the games if going through other peoples yards wasn't frowned upon.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    I'm about two miles northeast of the Huntsville airport. I could almost throw a rock and hit the new Trash Pandas stadium, and could walk to the games if going through other peoples yards wasn't frowned upon.
    Hey if you get a chance go to the games. I got to know a few of the players when Mobile would come to Biloxi.

  15. #35
    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Not sure exactly where you are located, but there have been some signals the threat area could expand further west. The day 2 update overnight will be highly anticipated. Will the area expand? Will it be upgraded to a moderate risk? What will be the tornado threat?
    My back deck. come sit on it....

    done.
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

  16. #36
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    A moderate risk has now been issued for the areas in the Orange shading. Multiple rounds of severe storms could affect the state with the main round starting around noon and then ending about midnight over in alabama. Parameters still favor discrete to semi discrete supercells producing multiple tornadoes. A few of those do have the potential to be long tracked and violent. I'm still not completely settled in where I'm staging but strongly considering being around Greenwood late morning and then just seeing where storms develop. One issue which may make chasing hard is that these storms may be HP (high precipitation) supercells causing the tornadoes to be rain wrapped. They'll also be moving 40-55mph. So if you go under a warning don't go out in your backyard trying to see it. You may not know it's there until it throws your grill though your dining room window and peels your roof off.


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    Well the 98/84 corridor is heating up this morning. So DD and CC need to be on the lookout

  18. #38
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Well the 98/84 corridor is heating up this morning. So DD and CC need to be on the lookout
    Lovely. Thanks for the heads up. Please keep us posted. I start work at 4:45 each morning and work until 9 or 10 every night. I just peek in here from time to time for updates.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by DownwardDawg View Post
    Lovely. Thanks for the heads up. Please keep us posted. I start work at 4:45 each morning and work until 9 or 10 every night. I just peek in here from time to time for updates.
    You're up near Collins right

  20. #40
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    You're up near Collins right
    Yea. 5 miles west of Collins on 84. Williamsburg/Lone Star area.

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