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Thread: First spring severe threats on the horizon

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    First spring severe threats on the horizon

    The first one is Sunday. It it looks to be a very low end event and mainly confined to NW parts of the state. However, a potentially much more intense system looks to arrive Wednesday. While still several days away this one looks to have the potential to be interesting with all modes of severe weather possible. Jackson NWS is already mentioning it in their graphics and discussions as is Memphis and Birmingham. As of right now Birmingham is using the most ominous language as they're painting some pretty textbook severe parameters to be in place. Still a lot of uncertainty to be ironed out and exact strength and timing still to be determined, but if you have any St Paddy's day plans then be weather aware. As for me, this looks like it may be my first chase day on my birthday. And I'm half Irish. Got to be a good omen, right?

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    Senior Member Dawg_Lover's Avatar
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    Geez, sure hoping you do not end up chasing in the Desoto County area.
    Yikes 😳

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    Senior Member STATEBALLIN's Avatar
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    Headed for gatlinburg tomorrow from the Florida panhandle. Staying in bham tomorrow night then on to gatlinburg Sunday. Supposed to be coming home Wednesday.

    Thoughts?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by STATEBALLIN View Post
    Headed for gatlinburg tomorrow from the Florida panhandle. Staying in bham tomorrow night then on to gatlinburg Sunday. Supposed to be coming home Wednesday.

    Thoughts?
    Could be a rough drive home. Timing is still to be determined but early returns are focusing on eastern MS into AL Wednesday afternoon into evening. Just connect the dots from Jackson to Hattiesburg to Birmingham to Montgomery to get a rough idea of the main target area as things look now. Then to be safe I'd expand that border another 50 miles each direction. Now, that area will change between now and then as we get closer to the event and more info becomes available.

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    Senior Member STATEBALLIN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Could be a rough drive home. Timing is still to be determined but early returns are focusing on eastern MS into AL Wednesday afternoon into evening. Just connect the dots from Jackson to Hattiesburg to Birmingham to Montgomery to get a rough idea of the main target area as things look now. Then to be safe I'd expand that border another 50 miles each direction. Now, that area will change between now and then as we get closer to the event and more info becomes available.
    Right on. I must add that I will be pulling a camper also. I?ll look into extending our stay one more night or come home a day early. Hmm...Will continue to monitor. Thanks!

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Here's the latest info. Area has expanded. You're typically looking for values of 65+ for significant tornadoes.


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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Here's the latest info. Area has expanded. You're typically looking for values of 65+ for significant tornadoes.

    Edit. I see it now. It wasn't showing on my phone earlier.
    Last edited by DownwardDawg; 03-13-2021 at 07:11 PM.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Flying in from offshore to Houma early Wednesday morning then driving home to Hwy 84 Covington county. What are my chances of getting in?

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    Senior Member basedog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Could be a rough drive home. Timing is still to be determined but early returns are focusing on eastern MS into AL Wednesday afternoon into evening. Just connect the dots from Jackson to Hattiesburg to Birmingham to Montgomery to get a rough idea of the main target area as things look now. Then to be safe I'd expand that border another 50 miles each direction. Now, that area will change between now and then as we get closer to the event and more info becomes available.
    Dang starkvegasdawg, you bringing the heat as I am heading to Gatlinburg Wednesday for several days! Stop this madness*

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    We?re driving home from Fort Worth to the MS Coast Tuesday afternoon through late night. Do you think we would end up driving through this? We were planning to hit Shreveport probably late afternoon and then South through Alexandria and Baton Rouge.

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    if you really want storm action head to texas-oklahoma and kansas..they are forcasting long tracking tornados next 2 days.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    While there's still some timing and other differences among the models, I am not seeing anything that dissuades me from believing Wednesday could see a significant severe weather event for MS and AL. I still can't mail down where the worst will set up this far out, so those of you asking about specific locations - I just don't know yet. By tomorrow the storm will be in range of the NAM. It is trying to show significant severe storms approaching the MS River by 7:00am that morning. Some of the other models are holding off until around noon for the storms to get into MS. All of these finer details will work themselves out over the next 24-36 hours, but this could well be a case of storms developing early in the day and not waiting for max heating in the afternoon. The early forecast soundings are showing a very favorable environment for storms to develop and sustain rotating updrafts. This will be conducive for all modes of severe weather including tornadoes...a couple of which could be violent and long tracked.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    The SPC has now updated all of MS to an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday. The ingredients may be starting to come together for a tornado outbreak. They did mention that there is still some location issues with the GFS concentrating the threat into southern TN and the euro placing the threat more into central MS and AL. They have come into better agreement on timing with Wednesday afternoon now looking like when things get serious. Details will continue to be fine tuned, but things are really starting to look serious.


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    Senior Member msudawg1200's Avatar
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    What about the baseball game on Tuesday? Any chance rain affects it? I'm driving up for my first game since Texas Tech last year which was the last games we played.

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    Bump

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msudawg1200 View Post
    What about the baseball game on Tuesday? Any chance rain affects it? I'm driving up for my first game since Texas Tech last year which was the last games we played.
    Game on Tuesday should be ok.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Overall threat is still enhanced but has now had a hatched area added for more of north and central MS for higher chances of significant severe weather Wednesday. Nothing has happened to lower the threat for this system. Winds to 70mph, hail to golf ball and probably bigger, and several tornadoes - some possibly long tracked and violent - still look like a good bet. Timing looks to be late morning through the evening. As of right now the worst tornado threat looks to reside along and just south of the warm front as it lifts northward tomorrow.


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    You going to chase ?

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Overall threat is still enhanced but has now had a hatched area added for more of north and central MS for higher chances of significant severe weather Wednesday. Nothing has happened to lower the threat for this system. Winds to 70mph, hail to golf ball and probably bigger, and several tornadoes - some possibly long tracked and violent - still look like a good bet. Timing looks to be late morning through the evening. As of right now the worst tornado threat looks to reside along and just south of the warm front as it lifts northward tomorrow.

    Keep us posted brother. This is where I look first.
    Still got my fingers crossed for my helicopter flight wednesday morning then my drive up I-55 and across 84 to home.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Churchill View Post
    You going to chase ?

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