Significant ice storm to potentially unfold Monday

[RocketDawg]

This is a historic storm for Mississippi and points westward. TWC just said that the Dallas/Ft Worth NWS issued a wind chill warning for the first time ever. And the entire state of Texas is under a winter storm warning. That also has never happened before.

Here, in north central Alabama, the cold air has pretty much stayed to our west. It's cold, but nothing highly unusual. The high today was 31, 15-20 degrees warmer than Memphis. We have a winter storm warning too, but I'm thinking we in Huntsville/Madison will stay just to the east of most of it and nothing terribly unusual will happen here.

We'll see how it looks tomorrow morning.

[RocketDawg]

Interesting. Hope you make it. All flights from my platform have been cancelled for the next few days. We aren't letting anyone crew change until this is over. PHI says may be Saturday before we get our folks out due to backed up flights.
Glad I'm home.

Where are you? Are you talking about FedEx flights out of Memphis?

[RocketDawg]

Hey man, I land in Birmingham around 6:15 tonight. Probably be out of there around 6:45 and head towards Starkville or Fulton, ms. How bad are you thinking it will be headed to either of those 2 places? Would one be safer you think?

I don't think I'd attempt that trip during the day, let alone at night, under these conditions. It will get worse the farther west you go. Taking I-22 would likely be less hilly than going to Starkville through Tuscaloosa, and it doesn't have much traffic anyway, so it would be the best of the two. Wouldn't be surprised to see the roads heading into Mississippi to just be closed entirely.

[dstatechamps]

The extreme area is for an expected band of freezing rain to set up. The red for 6" will be to the west of the extreme area and to the East it will be closer to the 2".

Add me to the list of folks thanking you for supplying the info. I'm a system engineer for a co-op up here and I read your posts like the gospel. That being said, what are you seeing for Lee/Itawamba counties?

[Saltydog]

Hey Starkvegas, what's your take for Itawamba County? I live in the south part of the county and I'm still reading conflicting forecasts. I'm seeing 2" of accumulation or less with heavy icing and then I'm seeing icing of up to .5 inch with 3-5" of snow. Can you give me your take?

[SilentSteel16]

Interesting. Hope you make it. All flights from my platform have been cancelled for the next few days. We aren't letting anyone crew change until this is over. PHI says may be Saturday before we get our folks out due to backed up flights.
Glad I'm home.

We still fly everyday, of course it has slowed down but mainly due to COVID and deep water changing their schedules. I though dictate where and when we fly, considering I am one of the 2 up front. Haha.

[SilentSteel16]

Where are you? Are you talking about FedEx flights out of Memphis?

He is talking about flying to and from rigs/platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. 95 percent of all service runs out there go to South LA so it means a rough commute, through some notoriously bad kept up state roads

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Starkvegas, what's your take for Itawamba County? I live in the south part of the county and I'm still reading conflicting forecasts. I'm seeing 2" of accumulation or less with heavy icing and then I'm seeing icing of up to .5 inch with 3-5" of snow. Can you give me your take?

I would expect it lose power if I was in Lee or Itawamba tomorrow. Everything we're seeing tonight is not the main event. It's just a little warm up. It's still a little iffy just precisely where that heavy band of freezing rain sets up so hard to say how bad it will get for a specific area. But the hardest hit areas will see widespread 0.5" ice accumulations with localized areas possibly up to an inch. Snow and sleet in these areas should max out At 1-3" with snow and sleet totals increasing rapidly as you go west of this band.

[RocketDawg]

He is talking about flying to and from rigs/platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. 95 percent of all service runs out there go to South LA so it means a rough commute, through some notoriously bad kept up state roads

Thanks. So he literally meant a platform.

It would be helpful if members would post their location in their profiles.

[Saltydog]

Thanks SVD.....I greatly appreciate your insight......

[yjnkdawg]

Just doing one storm at a time. The next one may be confined to the NW delta although at least one model is sending another major ice storm through the same area as this one.

I agree Vegas and you are doing a great job. Why would anybody look ahead at possibilities later on in the week , when we still have this current significant winter storm coming at us.

[starkvegasdawg]

I agree Vegas and you are doing a great job. Why would anybody look ahead at possibilities later on in the week , when we still have this current significant winter storm coming at us.

Nothing wrong with looking ahead. I'm just trying to get a good grip on this one. Winter weather isn't my forte. I'm much more in my element with spring severe weather.

[yjnkdawg]

Nothing wrong with looking ahead.[/B] I'm just trying to get a good grip on this one. Winter weather isn't my forte. I'm much more in my element with spring severe weather.

True. I just want us to get through this one and it hopefully will not be as bad as projected right now. Since Covid joined us early last year, and other out of town health issues I have been having to deal with, I haven't been able to post as much on ED as I used too concerning MSU, but when severe or hazardous weather is on the horizon, I always try to look on here to see what your thinking is.

[starkvegasdawg]

True. I just want us to get through this one and it hopefully will not be as bad as projected right now. Since Covid joined us early last year, and other out of town health issues I have been having to deal with, I haven't been able to post as much on ED as I used too concerning MSU, but when severe or hazardous weather is on the horizon, I always try to look on here to see what your thinking is.

Been looking at some of the latest hi res short range model runs coming in. While the gfs is still showing snow on top of the ice for the Starkville area, most of the these others are freezing rain and sleet only. Still showing ice accumulations in the 0.3 to 0.8 range. I honestly think some place is going to get an inch of ice. I just don't know where that place is.

[parabrave]

Just saw a video out of San Antonio. Blowing snow.

[starkvegasdawg]

There is now winter precip falling in the Gulf of Mexico. Let that sink in for a moment. Snow and sleet landing in the Gulf. Oh, and if you live in eastern MS don't be surprised if you hear a clap or two of thunder tomorrow while it's sleeting and freezing raining.

[DownwardDawg]

Where are you? Are you talking about FedEx flights out of Memphis?

No. Helicopter flights out of Houma back and forth offshore.

[DownwardDawg]

Thanks. So he literally meant a platform.

It would be helpful if members would post their location in their profiles.

Not sure how that would be helpful. Mine would say Covington County Mississippi but I was talking about offshore helicopter flights.

[DownwardDawg]

I made the trip from 84 west of Collins to Hattiesburg and back. It wasn't bad but the worst is just starting. 84 has ice on bridges and I'm already losing some tree limbs, but 49 was pretty clear so far. I'm really worried about this evening.

[Churchill]

We are having 30+ mph wind gusts in Madison and we're about 19 degrees.

edited to add: and thunder