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Thread: Numbers

  1. #1
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    Numbers

    Several posters have suggested we will be short of a full roster next fall (possibly sourcing Rose Bowl?).

    First question, is our ceiling 85 or 83? Our reductions were for 2 years starting last year so we are back to 85 next year,correct?

    Second, why would it be difficult to get to 83 or 85? We can bring all the current players back because no one loses eligibility, so we will probably lose 2-4 like Murphy, Errol Thompson, KJ Costello, and maybe Marquiss Spencer who have nfl prospects or are ready to move on.

    So we have like 55-60 right now including players still in the program but in tracing/quarantine or injured. Someone in here has the exact number I am sure. If we start with 60 and then lose 5 to transfer, NFL, etc. then we have 55. So a 25 man class brings you to 80 and 5 grad transfers take you to 85.

    Am I reading this wrong?

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    I believe the grad transfers count in the 25, but aside from that, we should be close to 80 next year and back at the max by 2022. And that's assuming the NCAA doesn't give a waiver considering how depleted lots of rosters are.

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    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    I think there are some players that may have left that we don't know about. MSU is taking the high road with that- as they should.

    That's probably what is throwing your numbers off.

    Also- I think most people appear to be speculating that most of our seniors are going to leave after this year so I think we will lose more than 2-4 guys. Eiland is a NFL prospect as is Parker. Kobe Jones is too. Payton and Sharp could stay or go.

    We really won't know until MSU confirms who is still on the team and who isn't. And FWIW we don't know who is really leaving among the seniors so it's kind of up in the air.

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    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quaoarsking View Post
    I believe the grad transfers count in the 25, but aside from that, we should be close to 80 next year and back at the max by 2022. And that's assuming the NCAA doesn't give a waiver considering how depleted lots of rosters are.
    Grad transfers count against the 25. Correct. I agree with you- I think we will be in the high 70's unless more seniors come back than anticipated. We'll give some scholarships to walk-ons I'm sure.

    I really don't think we're going to go crazy on the grad transfer market. Safety- yes. DE- depends on what we get on the market vs maybe a JUCO guy. I don't know if we'll have room or not but I wouldn't mind us picking up a grad transfer RB and slot receiver. The good news is Rogers has emerged enough we don't have to go the grad transfer route for that spot. I think they want two HS running backs and that may be enough to boost that position. And we have some really good receiver recruits that may contribute right away in the rotation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Grad transfers count against the 25. Correct. I agree with you- I think we will be in the high 70's unless more seniors come back than anticipated. We'll give some scholarships to walk-ons I'm sure.

    I really don't think we're going to go crazy on the grad transfer market. Safety- yes. DE- depends on what we get on the market vs maybe a JUCO guy. I don't know if we'll have room or not but I wouldn't mind us picking up a grad transfer RB and slot receiver. The good news is Rogers has emerged enough we don't have to go the grad transfer route for that spot. I think they want two HS running backs and that may be enough to boost that position. And we have some really good receiver recruits that may contribute right away in the rotation.
    Well, that explains it. I knew the oversigning, gray shirting, and processing practices were affected, but I did not realize transfers were impacted.

    In the long run, this set of rules really benefits a school like State by leveling the field a little bit and eliminating the stockpiling and culling practices at the blue bloods. But ... it makes a heavy player turnover like we have seen very difficult to handle.

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    An NFL prospect that is not projected in the first 3-4 rounds should really consider returning. The mock drafts have anywhere from zero to a handful in that category. Hopefully these dudes are making good long term decisions. Jumping a year early and ending up with zero return is a very poor comparison to a master’s degree and improved NFL prospects.

    Not a single name on that list benefits from jumping now IMO except possibly Errol or Marquiss as round 3/4 type guys to NFL and Costello to a new destination.
    Last edited by Walkerhill; 11-30-2020 at 11:33 AM.

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    Senior Member StarkVegasSteve's Avatar
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    I think we probably see 8-10 more departures by the end of spring practice next year between transfers and graduations. I think we'll be in the 70s next year in terms of numbers and maybe back at the max in 2022.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Walkerhill View Post
    An NFL prospect that is not projected in the first 3-4 rounds should really consider returning. The mock drafts have anywhere from zero to a handful in that category. Hopefully these dudes are making good long term decisions. Jumping a year early and ending up with zero return is a very poor comparison to a master’s degree and improved NFL prospects.

    Not a single name on that list benefits from jumping now IMO except possibly Errol or Marquiss as round 3/4 type guys to NFL and Costello to a new destination.
    There's something to be said for taking your shot and getting on with your life, ala Beniques Brown. I'd tell people to get a masters and enjoy being big man on campus, and then take your shot when you're out of eligibility, but I understand wanting to either make it or not. In hindsight, it seems pretty obvious that one year isn't that big of a deal, but I didn't think that when I was 22. And since most careers are really short anyway, I get thinking they don't want to "waste" one of those years as a 23 year old college player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Quaoarsking View Post
    I believe the grad transfers count in the 25, but aside from that, we should be close to 80 next year and back at the max by 2022. And that's assuming the NCAA doesn't give a waiver considering how depleted lots of rosters are.
    I would think there's a decent chance this will happen. It's not just that some schools will need it; there are going to be a lot of upper classmen transfers that end up without a landing spot when scholarships would be available but for the 25 man signing limit.

    Only reason it might not is that the blue bloods won't need it and they might not want schools to be able to restock.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    I would think there's a decent chance this will happen. It's not just that some schools will need it; there are going to be a lot of upper classmen transfers that end up without a landing spot when scholarships would be available but for the 25 man signing limit.

    Only reason it might not is that the blue bloods won't need it and they might not want schools to be able to restock.
    This is a good point - there are some schools that will have a backlog numbers problem because they will want to have a full 25 player class and also have some upper class men with extra eligibility whereas other schools have our problem of shortages due to turnover.

    I think the blue bloods will be highly in favor. They will want to pull in a full 25 even if that means culling the current roster.

    Hopefully something works out - the prospect of being 10 scholarships short or whatever it works out to be is a pretty big deal. You would not really be able to get a good read on the Leach era until perhaps 2022 or even 2023.
    Last edited by Walkerhill; 11-30-2020 at 12:21 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Walkerhill View Post
    This is a good point - there are some schools that will have a backlog numbers problem because they will want to have a full 25 player class and also have some upper class men with extra eligibility whereas other schools have our problem of shortages due to turnover.

    I think the blue bloods will be highly in favor. They will want to pull in a full 25 even if that means culling the current roster.

    Hopefully something works out - the prospect of being 10 scholarships short or whatever it works out to be is a pretty big deal. You would not really be able to get a good read on the Leach era until perhaps 2022 or even 2023.
    Not only that, it will make it painful for us to use transfers to fill in gaps because we really need to use our 25 to sign players with more than 1 or 2 years of eligibility. So we'll be in a position where we get hit harder by transfers than most and that will be compounded by the transfers making it more painful for us to use the transfer market to replace them.

    The thing that is going to be interesting is that if there is no relief, Kiffin is setting Ole Miss up to have some awful numbers problems. Unless he limits himself to transfers that mostly have 3 years of eligibility left, it's going to be like he signed 10 JUCO players in a class, or maybe worse, depending on how much eligibility most of his transfers have left.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    I think there are some players that may have left that we don't know about. MSU is taking the high road with that- as they should.

    That's probably what is throwing your numbers off.

    Also- I think most people appear to be speculating that most of our seniors are going to leave after this year so I think we will lose more than 2-4 guys. Eiland is a NFL prospect as is Parker. Kobe Jones is too. Payton and Sharp could stay or go.

    We really won't know until MSU confirms who is still on the team and who isn't. And FWIW we don't know who is really leaving among the seniors so it's kind of up in the air.
    Man that is a lot of NFL talent for a 2/3 win team. With all due respect, none of those guys are NFL players. Where are they going to go?

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    I agree with the original numbers question. There is not one player who played Saturday that will get drafted this year. You can put Murphy in that group too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MafiaDawg View Post
    I agree with the original numbers question. There is not one player who played Saturday that will get drafted this year. You can put Murphy in that group too.
    Ehh...Parker and Eiland both could get drafted. Parker has actually played decent this year and has some good film over the last year or so. Eiland probably will be someone a team takes a flier on solely on his measurables. Same might could be said for Osirus Mitchell.

  15. #15
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MafiaDawg View Post
    Man that is a lot of NFL talent for a 2/3 win team. With all due respect, none of those guys are NFL players. Where are they going to go?
    I agree. I don't think they'll all get drafted but at worst they could get shots as free agents.

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    3 years until we have close to 85 legit scholarships on roster. That is if we don?t have many misses on signees. There will be some walkons that get scholarships to help the number... transfers count against the signing numbers. We are in a lot worse shape from a numbers standpoint than Ole Miss was during their probation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by StarkVegasSteve View Post
    Ehh...Parker and Eiland both could get drafted. Parker has actually played decent this year and has some good film over the last year or so. Eiland probably will be someone a team takes a flier on solely on his measurables. Same might could be said for Osirus Mitchell.
    Neither Parker or eiland are going to get drafted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Homedawg View Post
    Neither Parker or eiland are going to get drafted.
    Probably not, but they aren't coming back either. Well Parker isn't. I don't know about Eiland.

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    I guess if you have graduated and are ready to move on with life I can understand that point of view. I have to remind myself that a lot of these guys don?t actually like football. It is just a means to an education. But I also can not fathom turning down free graduate school and another year in college on someone else?s dime

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    Senior Member Jack Lambert's Avatar
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    I will suspect the NCAA will change the rule on the number you can sign. Just for this year.

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