Key to the Egg

[BeastMan]

Ole Miss has a historically bad defense so I think MSU moves the ball and scores some points. The key to the game is defense and unfortunately that?s where MSU is razor thin. Let?s take a look at a few statistical keys I found.

Matt Corral has been on fire this year. There have only been 2 games where he struggled this year, Arkansas and Auburn. In those games he had 3 TDs to 8 INTs. When you look at Matt?s splits it?s hard to decipher where to attack because he?s been so good in most aspects. Where Matt does the worst is when he?s pressing. 3rd and Long is typically where you see that exhibited but not with Matt. You see his worst splits when OM is down by more than 1 score and also just the 4th quarter in general. Another interesting thing worth noting is in Matt?s worst 2 games, and the Bama game where he was good, are games where Lane Kiffin ran the ball the most they have all year. I think that is by design. I think Kiffin wanted to protect Matt vs Bama and then when he was struggling he was trying to help him out with extra run calls. What that tells us is the whole game with Matt sits behind his ears and Kiffin knows it.

To beat OM, MSU has to play its best defensive game of the year. If I?m MSU I try to get the ball first and get on the board first. Raise his blood pressure. Hold the ball through efficiency like the UGA game and keep his opportunities limited so he feels more pressure when he does have the ball. If OM is running the ball a lot that is a good sign that Kiffin doesn?t trust Matt. I?m really interested to see how state attacks this offense because all their playmakers are on the inside: Ealy, KE, and Moore. I think we?ll see some zone blitzes where we drop guys in to ?hot? read routes to force some quick mistakes. Forcing some early mistakes/turnovers and getting a lead is crucial to him losing control between his ears.

I certainly think OM has the upper hand going in to the game but let?s not pretend stranger things haven?t happened. If State?s front 7 dominates, they could force Matt Corral in to his 3rd bad game this year.

[ShotgunDawg]

Ole Miss has a historically bad defense so I think MSU moves the ball and scores some points. The key to the game is defense and unfortunately that?s where MSU is razor thin. Let?s take a look at a few statistical keys I found.

Matt Corral has been on fire this year. There have only been 2 games where he struggled this year, Arkansas and Auburn. In those games he had 3 TDs to 8 INTs. When you look at Matt?s splits it?s hard to decipher where to attack because he?s been so good in most aspects. Where Matt does the worst is when he?s pressing. 3rd and Long is typically where you see that exhibited but not with Matt. You see his worst splits when OM is down by more than 1 score and also just the 4th quarter in general. Another interesting thing worth noting is in Matt?s worst 2 games, and the Bama game where he was good, are games where Lane Kiffin ran the ball the most they have all year. I think that is by design. I think Kiffin wanted to protect Matt vs Bama and then when he was struggling he was trying to help him out with extra run calls. What that tells us is the whole game with Matt sits behind his ears and Kiffin knows it.

To beat OM, MSU has to play its best defensive game of the year. If I?m MSU I try to get the ball first and get on the board first. Raise his blood pressure. Hold the ball through efficiency like the UGA game and keep his opportunities limited so he feels more pressure when he does have the ball. If OM is running the ball a lot that is a good sign that Kiffin doesn?t trust Matt. I?m really interested to see how state attacks this offense because all their playmakers are on the inside: Ealy, KE, and Moore. I think we?ll see some zone blitzes where we drop guys in to ?hot? read routes to force some quick mistakes. Forcing some early mistakes/turnovers and getting a lead is crucial to him losing control between his ears.

I certainly think OM has the upper hand going in to the game but let?s not pretend stranger things haven?t happened. If State?s front 7 dominates, they could force Matt Corral in to his 3rd bad game this year.

Great post as usual and good research.

I'd feel really good about our pass rush if Wheat and Davis were playing, but without them, I just don't know where it's going to come from.

[Dawgology]

I’m thinking the opposite. Our defense is thin and the secondary is our weakest link. We will not stop their offensive production. We will be lucky to slow it down. In this tilt the best defense is a good offense. We either win in a close shootout or we get blown out. Our offense must score points tomorrow or we lose by 3+ TD’s.

[bobcat91]

Ball control. Long drives that eat up the clock.

[msbulldog]

Some strategic insulting smack talk will do wonders against Corral, he's immature and hot headed.

[BeastMan]

Ball control. Long drives that eat up the clock.

This. Our UGA production would be great in this one and I think that’s certainly possible.

[BeastMan]

Some strategic insulting smack talk will do wonders against Corral, he's immature and hot headed.

If that smack talking was on the ground after sacks I think you’re right

[BeardoMSU]

Our offense is going to have play a perfect game, and basically score every time we have the ball...

[Dawgology]

Our offense is going to have play a perfect game, and basically score every time we have the ball...

This is what I’m thinking. Ole Miss won’t be punting much.

[BeardoMSU]

This is what I’m thinking. Ole Miss won’t be punting much.

Also, it seemed every time GA threw the ball deep it resulted in a PI or huge completion....OMs passing offense is a smidge better, so...

[Jarius]

Our offense is going to have play a perfect game, and basically score every time we have the ball...

I think this is a bit overboard. We need to play well on offense. Clean. We need to play pretty good on defense but we by no means have to play perfect on either side of the ball to beat them. This is a 3-4 Ole Miss team. Granted, we are 2-5 but we are 2-5 because we did not play clean on offense. We are just an average couple of offensive performances away from being 4-3. We play clean offensively and make a couple of stops on defense and we will win the game. They aren’t the 2019 Chiefs.

[WSOPdawg]

I think this is a bit overboard. We need to play well on offense. Clean. We need to play pretty good on defense but we by no means have to play perfect on either side of the ball to beat them. This is a 3-4 Ole Miss team. Granted, we are 2-5 but we are 2-5 because we did not play clean on offense. We are just an average couple of offensive performances away from being 4-3. We play clean offensively and make a couple of stops on defense and we will win the game. They aren’t the 2019 Chiefs.

100% agree. The early-season pick-six TDs really cost us in numerous games. Last week's offensive showing against UGA would've won the aTm game and KY games.