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Thread: Yet...another...tropical system brewing

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Yet...another...tropical system brewing

    So while you're finalizing plans of what Ole miss fan's house to roll this Halloween, another disturbance in the SW Caribbean is becoming organized and a tropical depression could form in the next 2-3 days. If it becomes a named system it will be Zeta and tie the 2005 record for most named systems in a year. While still early most models have it becoming a tropical storm and affecting FL in the next 4-6 days as it moves north.

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    Senior Member msbulldog's Avatar
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    Hasn't the Gulf cooled some?
    Praise The Lord and Go Dawgs!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by msbulldog View Post
    Hasn't the Gulf cooled some?
    Some, but not much. I checked today to see where it was at for the fall pompano run. Still high 70's in the northern gulf. Over 80 in Key West.

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    Senior Member basedog's Avatar
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    Cold front moving down and should keep this in check.

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    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Levi with a good evening update. various scenarios in play based on how quickly it gets organized (which it is doing so).
    Quicker it is organized and stronger, the more likely it gets sucked up towards cuba quicker and then gets sucked over cuba by the trade winds to it's east. If that happens it will be off the coast of Florida when the high pressure builds in which would force it to cut across Florida potentially.
    If the storm is weaker and drifts more to the west, it will be stuck between those previously mentioned trade winds to the east and the flow out of the north to it's west. ... If that happens there a few options of it getting pushed to Florida or going into the gulf and being pushed west by the developing high pressure over Florida.

    Will be interesting to see what we learn by sunday morning.


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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    The latest euro guidance


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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    HMON showing a track through the fort Walton/destin area as a cat 2-3. I know it's really early.

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    The latest euro guidance

    What's the landfall timing? I haven't been keeping up with this one.

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    Senior Member Dawgbite's Avatar
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    The last projection that I saw

    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    What's the landfall timing? I haven't been keeping up with this one.
    Showed something like 120-144 hours from now.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Our little system is now a depression. It is expected to briefly reach hurricane status before weakening back to a tropical storm before making landfall midweek sometime. Right now target area looks to be somewhere between Baton Rouge and Biloxi but that can change as we all know. The good news is the constant parade of cold fronts will not allow this to sit and linger over the area. It's going to make landfall and keep right on trucking NE so that should help minimize flooding concerns.

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Our little system is now a depression. It is expected to briefly reach hurricane status before weakening back to a tropical storm before making landfall midweek sometime. Right now target area looks to be somewhere between Baton Rouge and Biloxi but that can change as we all know. The good news is the constant parade of cold fronts will not allow this to sit and linger over the area. It's going to make landfall and keep right on trucking NE so that should help minimize flooding concerns.
    GFS has it as a mid TS hitting Grand Isle then shooting up to the ARKLATEX.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    We now officially have tropical storm Zeta which I believe ties the record for most named tropical systems in a year. We last had a Zeta on 12/30/05. 2020 version is forecast to make landfall Wednesday afternoon as a tropical storm. Hopefully, if I doesn't do what the last several have done and vastly over achieve forecast strength.

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    Hey SVD you headed down here. Looks like the eye will come ashore here but all the heavy wind and surge will be near Florabama. Of course tomorrow will tell if they shift it further east

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Hey SVD you headed down here. Looks like the eye will come ashore here but all the heavy wind and surge will be near Florabama. Of course tomorrow will tell if they shift it further east
    I don't think so. My son's birthday is Tuesday and I'm hoping to take off quite a bit around Christmas so I'm saving my days. Which of course means this'll end up a cat 3 with the perfect landfall trajectory to chase.

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    80 Mph cat 1...what say you fellas?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Statecoachingblows** View Post
    80 Mph cat 1...what say you fellas?
    It depends. The NHC Intensity has it hitting LA as a cat one then at the 63-65 hr timeframe as a TS. Some of the models have it as a 100 MPH up through Mississippi and Bama. Almost all of the wind field is off to the east because of the shear. Even with the center going up through New Orleans before getting picked up and heading NE Biloxi will be getting the worst winds.

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    For what it’s worth, we have begun evacuating a few of our rigs mainly in east. This makes the 4th evac this year. Ready for this season to be over

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    What website has the most accurate modeling data (at least for this year)?

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilentSteel16 View Post
    For what it’s worth, we have begun evacuating a few of our rigs mainly in east. This makes the 4th evac this year. Ready for this season to be over
    I'm sitting right in the middle of Mississippi Canyon. Riding another one out. It's been a great year! **
    We are told NOT to judge ALL Muslims by the actions of a few lunatics."
    BUT...
    We are encouraged TO judge ALL gun owners by the actions of a few lunatics?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SilentSteel16 View Post
    For what it’s worth, we have begun evacuating a few of our rigs mainly in east. This makes the 4th evac this year. Ready for this season to be over
    Ready for this year to be over! Glad my wife hasn't left me. I just can't seem to get rested. Have to report back to duty Tuesday. Has anyone else been feeling depressed about this whole state of world affairs? Covid....BLM....Disasters...Government so 17'd up it really wont matter who is elected. I cant see any hope in 2021 hope i am wrong. Hail State!

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