Numbers crunched

[Maverick91]

I looked at the first 14 throws for both Rogers and Costello on Saturday. Why 14? Because that is how many balls Rogers through in his first 2 drives.

I make this post to say this is 100% on Costello for how bad our Offense has performed, not the line. My opinion, please change my mind.

From snap of the ball to the release or subsequent pressure of the sack, Rogers had the ball for 30.29 seconds.

Of the 30.29 seconds he held the ball for an average of 2.16 seconds. He read through his progressions and made the appropriate check downs in that timeframe and moved the ball pretty well and got a freaking touchdown. Please also note, that he made quite a few throws past ten yards and hit people in stride within ten yards. That is a winning formula.


From snap of the ball to the release or subsequent pressure of the sack, Costello had the ball for 36.68 seconds.

Of the 36.68 seconds he held the ball for an average of 2.62 seconds. With additional time he was sacked, fumbled twice (ball hit him in the chest), 1 pick, 1 under throw (probably a touchdown), and didn't look like he could read the defense.

Looking at the numbers how I read this, the line gave Costello all the time he needed to read through his progressions and make the right throw. He couldn't do it, no matter what the reason is, he couldn't do it. A true freshman made Costello look like a true freshman in every facet of the QB position.

I believe we need a full game of a Rogers running this offense to actually see what its capabilities are, Bama might not give us the best understanding. But, we also might be pleasantly surprised.

HAIL FREAKING STATE

[msbulldog]

Good analysis.

[ShotgunDawg]

Completely agree.

Great post and you just put data to what is obvious on film.

I believe the culprit of the issue with Costello is that he's got slow feet & QBs are taught to keep their feet, shoulders, and eyes together when going through progressions. Therefore, due to Will having quicker feet, and thus much fast in scanning from one side of the field to the other, and Will knowing the offense better, the reads are just made quicker and ball the ball comes out.

[Maverick91]

msbulldog - appreciated!

ShotgunDawg - 100% agree. There has been way to many variables to think this offense cannot work yet as Leach wants it to.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Excellent post and I 100% agree with the conclusion- Rogers is far far far better.

On the "Costello 2.62s" per pass stat the fact is he couldn't make reads. Rogers was able to read and sling the ball out here it should be before pressure got to him. With KJ, the line could have given him 3.5s and a lot of the time he wouldn't have thrown it till the defender was on him. That's how you get "well it's not his fault he underthrew that, the DL was right in his face! Our OL is the problem" reasoning. Now our OL is indeed TERRIBLE, but Costello can't make reads and so often hold the ball until the D makes him throw it even though we may have had 8 yards if he had thrown it right at 2.17s or whatever

[Tbonewannabe]

I looked at the first 14 throws for both Rogers and Costello on Saturday. Why 14? Because that is how many balls Rogers through in his first 2 drives.

I make this post to say this is 100% on Costello for how bad our Offense has performed, not the line. My opinion, please change my mind.

From snap of the ball to the release or subsequent pressure of the sack, Rogers had the ball for 30.29 seconds.

Of the 30.29 seconds he held the ball for an average of 2.16 seconds. He read through his progressions and made the appropriate check downs in that timeframe and moved the ball pretty well and got a freaking touchdown. Please also note, that he made quite a few throws past ten yards and hit people in stride within ten yards. That is a winning formula.


From snap of the ball to the release or subsequent pressure of the sack, Costello had the ball for 36.68 seconds.

Of the 36.68 seconds he held the ball for an average of 2.62 seconds. With additional time he was sacked, fumbled twice (ball hit him in the chest), 1 pick, 1 under throw (probably a touchdown), and didn't look like he could read the defense.

Looking at the numbers how I read this, the line gave Costello all the time he needed to read through his progressions and make the right throw. He couldn't do it, no matter what the reason is, he couldn't do it. A true freshman made Costello look like a true freshman in every facet of the QB position.

I believe we need a full game of a Rogers running this offense to actually see what its capabilities are, Bama might not give us the best understanding. But, we also might be pleasantly surprised.

HAIL FREAKING STATE

Bama also doesn't have the typical Bama D. We will probably lose but it will have to do with our thin D that just lost another starter off a already thin group.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Rogers?s quick release, good feet, and decision making/experience in this offense make him a better fit.

You can?t pin it 100% on Costello either. The OL has been dreadful- which is another reason why you have to go with Rogers. He has better feet and gets the ball out quicker. Rogers minimizes our protection issues better than Costello.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Excellent post and I 100% agree with the conclusion- Rogers is far far far better.

On the "Costello 2.62s" per pass stat the fact is he couldn't make reads. Rogers was able to read and sling the ball out here it should be before pressure got to him. With KJ, the line could have given him 3.5s and a lot of the time he wouldn't have thrown it till the defender was on him. That's how you get "well it's not his fault he underthrew that, the DL was right in his face! Our OL is the problem" reasoning. Now our OL is indeed TERRIBLE, but Costello can't make reads and so often hold the ball until the D makes him throw it even though we may have had 8 yards if he had thrown it right at 2.17s or whatever

Rogers is better in this offense and fits what this team needs better than Costello- especially considering Costello May be dealing with arm issues.

I?m not a Costello hater though. He is very talented but is just not what this offense needs right now. Also was told by someone that Rogers was our highest graded offensive player vs A&M, per PFF.

[Indndawg]

But Rogers didn't go to Stanford.

[RocketDawg]

Bama also doesn't have the typical Bama D. We will probably lose but it will have to do with our thin D that just lost another starter off a already thin group.

That's true about their defense, but their offense seems just about as good as ever and they can almost score at will. That, plus a little helpful officiating, is scary.

[RocketDawg]

But Rogers didn't go to Stanford.

Costello probably wouldn't have either if he wasn't pretty good at football. I'm sure their athlete standards for admission are much more strict than MSU's and other SEC schools, but they're not the same as for the typical Stanford student.

[R2Dawg]

Good post and good point. KJ also throws to spots he decides before the ball is snapped, hence the pick 6s and throwing into triple coverage.

[Hambone]

Just devils advocate...

Is it possible that Will immediately goes to the shorter receiver? I mean, can you really “check down” in 2 seconds?

Also, that IS the best option when they rush 3 and drop 8. Get it to the receiver that has the cushion immediately before the d lineman can even get to you.