29 offensive drives against KY & ARK; looking at the ugly stats that may give hope...

[Johnson85]

I'd like to say I'd respect it as well.

But I know I'd lose my shit the first time he went for it on 4th and 5, backed up to our 12 yard line. I know the numbers work. But it's too big a change. And I refuse to punt in Madden or NCAA.

Do the numbers really say go for it on 4th and 5 deep in our territory? I would have thought the likely points from giving them the ball in the redzone would greatly outweigh the expected points from a 4th down conversion. Although I guess a punt from our 12 will generlaly give them pretty good field position also.

Just gut feel, for the first half, I'm fine with 4th and short once we're past our 30, 4th and 6 once we're past our 40. Don't want to go for 4th and 10 unless we're between the 50 and whatever field goal range is for us. If the team we're facing has an explosive offense, I'd rather be more aggressive as field position won't matter as much for them. If they have a weak offense, I'd rather play more for field position to avoid giving them easy points. For the 2nd half it just depends on how the game is going.

[SheltonChoked]

Do the numbers really say go for it on 4th and 5 deep in our territory? I would have thought the likely points from giving them the ball in the redzone would greatly outweigh the expected points from a 4th down conversion. Although I guess a punt from our 12 will generlaly give them pretty good field position also.

Just gut feel, for the first half, I'm fine with 4th and short once we're past our 30, 4th and 6 once we're past our 40. Don't want to go for 4th and 10 unless we're between the 50 and whatever field goal range is for us. If the team we're facing has an explosive offense, I'd rather be more aggressive as field position won't matter as much for them. If they have a weak offense, I'd rather play more for field position to avoid giving them easy points. For the 2nd half it just depends on how the game is going.

If only there was a link with pictures and supplying the math for expected points...

Yes, the NFL based math in the link shows you go for it on 4th and 2 or less everytime. I have seen one before that showed only punt when it's 4th and long backed up inside the 10. The math changes based on expected outcomes (how good is your kicker, how good is your defense), But in football, you have to possess the ball to score.

As a corollary, If I was Lane Kifffin, and my defense is truly as bad as it has shown this season, I'd onside every kick. You cannot reliably stop another team, take the chances on the onside.