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Thread: 29 offensive drives against KY & ARK; looking at the ugly stats that may give hope...

  1. #1
    Einhorn DeviousDawg's Avatar
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    29 offensive drives against KY & ARK; looking at the ugly stats that may give hope...

    We had 29 total drives against Arkansas and Kentucky, lets dive into all the ugly numbers. Yes, this may be hard to read, but it will also show you that we are not that far off, just have to finish and hold onto the ball. That will come with experience in this offense.

    29 Offensive Drives:
    • 2 of 29 (7%) resulted in points, both being TD's
    • 27 of 29 (93%) resulted in giving the ball back to the opponent
    • 14 of 29 (48%) resulted in turnovers
    • 9 of 29 (31%) resulted in INT, returned for 184 yards & 2 TD
    • 1 of 29 (3%) resulted in a fumble
    • 4 of 29 (14%) resulted in turnover on downs
    • 1 of 29 (3%) resulted in a missed field goal attempt
    • 1 of 29 (3%) resulted in the end of the half
    • 11 of 29 (38%) resulted in punts


    Average field position = MS27
    • 26 of 29 started within our own 38 yard line
    • 3 of 29 started in opponent territory (0 pts; 2 TOD, 1 missed FGA)


    7 of 29 drives made it into the redzone:
    • 2 of 7 (29%) redzone trips ended in points, both TD
    • 2 of 7 (29%) ended in turnover on downs
    • 3 of 7 (43%) ended in INT


    12 of 29 (41%) drives crossed the 50 yard line:
    • 2 of 12 (17%) ended in points, both TD
    • 2 of 12 (17%) ended in punts
    • 1 of 12 (8%) ended in missed FGA
    • 2 of 12 (17%) ended in turnover on downs
    • 5 of 12 (42%) ended in INT


    3rd and 4th down conversions
    • 9 of 34 (26%) 3rd downs were converted successfully
    • 6 of 10 (60%) 4th downs were converted successfully




    Yes, there is a ton of bad in there, but it shows me that IF we can fix the bad, our offense will be just fine. It begins and ends with cleaning up the turnovers.
    • 48% of our drives in the last 2 games resulted in turnovers. You will never win with that stat.
    • We made it to the redzone 7 times and only scored points 29% of the time.
    • We crossed the 50 yard line 12 times and only scored points 17% of the time.
    • We threw 9 pics for a total of 184 interception return yards, we fumbled in our own territory and have had 4 turnover on downs. All of that combined gives the opponent good field position, which in turn, contributes to our poor starting field position.
    • We only have converted 9 of 34 3rd down conversions, we have to get that up, and we will.


    Basically, it can only get better. We are transitioning, and the LSU game set us, the players and media up to expect too much, too soon. Let's see what kind of improvement we see over this season, it's going to take a while but slow and steady improvement is all we can ask for. Leach and his QB's have always struggled in year 1, why would it be any different here? He needs a year, and probably more, to get his guys in that fit the scheme, and truly install the playbook and muscle memory that comes with learning it. I have been pretty down about the future of our program the last 2 weeks, but after some time to reflect, I think we will be fine in time. We are just going to have to give it time, and appreciate the improvement when it's there. I think we see some of these numbers from above improve this weekend against TAMU, and in fact, I have a feeling we might give them a little scare.

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    It also says to me, maybe the one think Coach L could learn is sometimes you need to take the points.

    Taking the points does more than just getting the points. Seldom is it discouraging. Not getting any, IS.

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    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    I'm pissed at the players more than anything.

    We've had two offensive geniuses allegedly work with these players. They still do a lot of the same crap across two staffs now. I know a lot of our fans default to blaming the coach but with the sample size here I'm blaming the players for having their heads up their asses.

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    Senior Member ShotgunDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Percho View Post
    It also says to me, maybe the one think Coach L could learn is sometimes you need to take the points.

    Taking the points does more than just getting the points. Seldom is it discouraging. Not getting any, IS.
    the analytics are pretty strong that you should go for TDs. I for one have no issue with Leach's decisions thus far to go for TDs.

    Obviously late in the game when things have shaped up, you take the points, but until the 4th quarter, going for TDs on 4th and manageable is the right call.

    College football teams convert 4th downs at about a 54% rate and TDs are worth more than twice what FGs are.

    Read this article

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...urge/38277757/
    CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG

    Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More

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    Senior Member ShotgunDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    I'm pissed at the players more than anything.

    We've had two offensive geniuses allegedly work with these players. They still do a lot of the same crap across two staffs now. I know a lot of our fans default to blaming the coach but with the sample size here I'm blaming the players for having their heads up their asses.
    Joe's problem wasn't his offense. Joe's problem was he wasn't a head coach.

    Leach is a head coach and thus will get this going right.
    CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG

    Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More

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    14 turnovers in 2 games is mind-blowingly bad. No way to sugarcoat that.

    I suspect we won't have 7 against this Saturday though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg View Post
    the analytics are pretty strong that you should go for TDs. I for one have no issue with Leach's decisions thus far to go for TDs.

    Obviously late in the game when things have shaped up, you take the points, but until the 4th quarter, going for TDs on 4th and manageable is the right call.

    College football teams convert 4th downs at about a 54% rate and TDs are worth more than twice what FGs are.

    Read this article

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...urge/38277757/
    I am curious if Leach has a chart that says what to do in all 4th down situations based on mathematics and he follows that exactly, or if he bases it on gut feel.

    If it's the former, I totally respect it and accept whatever outcome it causes. If it's the latter, that's gotta be fixed immediately.

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    Senior Member ShotgunDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quaoarsking View Post
    I am curious if Leach has a chart that says what to do in all 4th down situations based on mathematics and he follows that exactly, or if he bases it on gut feel.

    If it's the former, I totally respect it and accept whatever outcome it causes. If it's the latter, that's gotta be fixed immediately.
    We're currently converting 60% of our 4th down conversations. That's good. What's not on the card is throwing an int after converting a 4th down
    CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg View Post
    We're currently converting 60% of our 4th down conversations. That's good. What's not on the card is throwing an int after converting a 4th down
    I wonder what the analytics say about the shotgun formation on 4th and 1? I know for a fact the analytics love the QB sneak. And unfortutantely that's not an option under Leach.

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    Senior Member ShotgunDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoopsDawg View Post
    I wonder what the analytics say about the shotgun formation on 4th and 1? I know for a fact the analytics love the QB sneak. And unfortutantely that's not an option under Leach.
    I actually like throwing on 4th and 1. IMO it's the easiest way to convert it. It's wide open typically

    Leach was always between a 55%-70% conversation rate at Wazzou, so I think we should keep going for it.

    QB sneak is great but it's only really useful on 4th and 1. Leach offense allows you to consistently convert on most anything that's 4 or less yards.
    Last edited by ShotgunDawg; 10-15-2020 at 06:09 PM.
    CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg View Post
    I actually like throwing on 4th and 1. IMO it's the easiest way to convert it. It's wide open typically

    Leach was always between a 55%-70% conversation rate at Wazzou, so I think we should keep going for it.

    QB sneak is great but it's only really useful on 4th and 1. Leach offense allows you to consistently convert on most anything that's 4 or less yards.
    Yes, but running it on 4th and 1 from the shotgun when your QB isn't a threat is a low percentage play as we saw vs Arkansas.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HoopsDawg View Post
    Yes, but running it on 4th and 1 from the shotgun when your QB isn't a threat is a low percentage play as we saw vs Arkansas.
    It's always low percentage after the fact and it doesn't work.

  13. #13
    Senior Member ShotgunDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoopsDawg View Post
    Yes, but running it on 4th and 1 from the shotgun when your QB isn't a threat is a low percentage play as we saw vs Arkansas.
    Then don't run it. Just throw quick pass
    CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG

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    Quote Originally Posted by Homedawg View Post
    It's always low percentage after the fact and it doesn't work.
    Huh? It's a low percentage play in general. Especially compared to the sneak.

    QB sneak has a 88% conversion rate. Inside zone run has a 68% conversion rate. And that's in the NFL. Probably even easier in college.

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    The encouraging thing to me is we've had that many turnovers/turnover on downs and we still were in every game to a degree. Kentucky and our defense were basically begging our offense to take the game.

    So with any sort of efficiency/improvement on offense we can win games. And 2-3 years down the road when the offense is hopefully a strength, we could be dangerous.
    Last edited by chef dixon; 10-15-2020 at 07:05 PM.

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    14 turnovers in 2 games.
    I can't get over that.
    Like holy crap.
    That is unbelievable.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    14 turnovers in 2 games.
    I can't get over that.
    Like holy crap.
    That is unbelievable.
    I agree and we thought Henig with 6 or 7 against LSU that year was bad. We've done it two games in a row against not great teams. Teams we are better than.

    The other thing I can't get my head around is 4 pick 6s in 3 games (yes I know technically it was 3 but an 85 yard return to the goal line is close enough for me). That one was like a 14 pt swing where we were about to score. Think how bad that really is. We must fix the QB position as a priority.

    Our D deserves to be 3-0.

  18. #18
    Senior Member TheLostDawg's Avatar
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    Until our offensive line learns to block you can talk all day of what we need to do, we aren't going to win games. Rodgers might as well play and learn. Hopefully he doesn't get hurt. Costello doesn't know how to read the defense in an air raid offense. Defense hopefully continues being Dawgs.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    14 turnovers in 2 games.
    I can't get over that.
    Like holy crap.
    That is unbelievable.
    We've got to stop calling an unsuccessful 4th down attempt a turnover.

  20. #20
    Einhorn DeviousDawg's Avatar
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    Here is a look at each 4th down. We had 10 of them, but I'm only going to show the 8 that were real 4th down calls with implications. The other 2 were both in the final drive of the Arkansas and Kentucky game. Against Arkansas, it was a 4th and 2 at our own 20 which was converted with a pass to J. Marks. Arkansas was in prevent as it was the 2nd to last play in the game. Against Kentucky, it was a 4th and 11 at our own 46 yard line, Costello was sacked for 7 yards.

    Here are the 8 real 4th down plays...

    Arkansas Game-
    • 4th & 3 at ARK 49- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 6 yards to ARK 43
    • 4th & 2 at ARK 35- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 9 yards to ARK 26
    • 4th & 1 at ARK 06- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 6 yards for a TD
    • 4th & 2 at AR 13- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (PASS)- K.J. Costello pass incomplete to C. Gardner
    • 4th & 2 at AR 07- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (RUN)- J. Marks rush for -2 yards to ARK 9

    Kentucky Game-
    • 4th & 1 at UK 38- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- K. Hill rush for 3 yards to UK 35[/B]
    • 4th & 1 at MSST 34- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (PASS)- K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cam Gardner
    • 4th & 5 at UK 36- 1ST DOWN (PASS)- W. Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yards to UK 23


    Here they are sorted by runs and passes.

    Runs-
    • 4th & 3 at ARK 49- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 6 yards to ARK 43
    • 4th & 2 at ARK 35- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 9 yards to ARK 26
    • 4th & 1 at ARK 06- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 6 yards for a TD
    • 4th & 1 at UK 38- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- K. Hill rush for 3 yards to UK 35
    • 4th & 2 at AR 07- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (RUN)- J. Marks rush for -2 yards to ARK 9

    Passes:
    • 4th & 2 at AR 13- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (PASS)- K.J. Costello pass incomplete to C. Gardner
    • 4th & 1 at MSST 34- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (PASS)- K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cam Gardner
    • 4th & 5 at UK 36- 1ST DOWN (PASS)- W. Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yards to UK 23


    -I am actually surprised how many times we ran on 4th and short.
    -5 of the 8 were run plays, 4 of those 5 were converted for 1st downs. 3 of those were by Dillon Johnson, young man has a nose for the sticks.
    -3 of the 8 were pass plays, only 1 of those were converted to a 1st down, and it was the longest yardage to gain for the 1st (4th & 5)
    -7 of the 8 4th down conversions were from 4th & 3 or less.
    Last edited by DeviousDawg; 10-15-2020 at 11:34 PM.

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