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Thread: Delta now a hurricane

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Delta now a hurricane

    No word about any layover in Atlanta.

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    You might want to make plans for mandeville. 2 of the 3 main models have it going up Morgan City then Baton Rouge to Jackson. The other HMON has it Morgan City then Hammond then Columbia with one big ass wind field. Hopefully It keeps on going west.

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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    You might want to make plans for mandeville. 2 of the 3 main models have it going up Morgan City then Baton Rouge to Jackson. The other HMON has it Morgan City then Hammond then Columbia with one big ass wind field. Hopefully It keeps on going west.
    Probably very close to Starkville by Saturday afternoon.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    You might want to make plans for mandeville. 2 of the 3 main models have it going up Morgan City then Baton Rouge to Jackson. The other HMON has it Morgan City then Hammond then Columbia with one big ass wind field. Hopefully It keeps on going west.
    Probably sitting this one out unless it slides east to make a first strike on the MS coast. I want to save my vacation days for the fall severe weather season. What I'll probably do if it takes the current path is get south of the center and see if I can luck up on a tornado Friday night and Saturday.

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    Man this season. When Laura hit I was supposed to head to Houston from the MS Coast with my daughter for a golf tournament that Friday morning. We had to withdraw from that one. Now we are supposed to head to Oklahoma for a tournament Thursday afternoon and might have to deal with the same driving issues trying to get over there. The season was already jacked up from Corona.

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    Where are you driving from?

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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    Where are you driving from?
    The MS Coast. Depending on the weather I?m looking now to hit I20 in Jackson and head that route instead of I10.

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    You should be OK/ Stay off 10 because if they evacuate New Orleans it's going to be a mess from Wed onward.

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    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Looks like this sum beach is going to affect our game Sat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooterpoot View Post
    Looks like this sum beach is going to affect our game Sat.
    In Lexington?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Current forecast track has the center squatting over Columbus, MS, at 8:00pm Saturday. Lexington should still be beyond the outer bands.

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    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Current forecast track has the center squatting over Columbus, MS, at 8:00pm Saturday. Lexington should still be beyond the outer bands.
    70% chance of rain with wind gusts is what I'm seeing. Also seeing 2:00 PM Sat in Columbus.
    Edit: Showing it about TN/MS line about 8 AM Sat now. So looks like Lexington will be wet and windy.
    Last edited by Cooterpoot; 10-05-2020 at 11:46 PM.

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    Senior Member SaintDawg's Avatar
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    Was reading on FB, the SHIPS intensity model is predicting a 56% chance Delta reaches Cat 5 within 72 hours. Could someone explain what SHIPS is and how reliable is it?

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    Looks like a wash out in Lexington. We always traditionally play bad in rainy/windy conditions but with the air raid this definitely benefits UK

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    Senior Member Cooterpoot's Avatar
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    Looks like they've pushed the time frame back a good bit now.

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    Looks like Cancun may get a direct hit by a Cat 3 or Cat 4.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintDawg View Post
    Was reading on FB, the SHIPS intensity model is predicting a 56% chance Delta reaches Cat 5 within 72 hours. Could someone explain what SHIPS is and how reliable is it?
    SHIPS is just one of a couple dozen tropical models. All have their good and bad days. Besides snow in MS, tropical cyclones are one of the most difficult things to forecast...especially intensity. Delta is currently undergoing rapid intensification and I would not be surprised to see it reach cat 4 status before weakening as it approaches the US. The next update is at 10:00 and I expect it to be a 3 then. Personally, I'm leery of it making it to 5, but I've been wrong before.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintDawg View Post
    Was reading on FB, the SHIPS intensity model is predicting a 56% chance Delta reaches Cat 5 within 72 hours. Could someone explain what SHIPS is and how reliable is it?
    Go to "Tropical Tidbits" for better info than FB. Thanks to Scooba for posting the That website.

  19. #19
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Delta now a 3 with 115mph winds. Several models now run it up to a 4 and a couple into 5 territory. One well into 5 territory but I'm counting on that to be an outlier.

  20. #20
    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    The biggest thing to be aware of with Delta will be he surge. As it ramps up to Cat 4/5 and then weakens prior to landfall, the surge will be larger than it's landing category of say cat 2/3.

    Have to see how it looks after coming off the yucatan peninsula

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