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Member
SV / Scooba - The wife and I are supposed to head to Gulf Shores from east central MS on Sunday morning. We were supposed to go first week of May but then we got the Rona. This is the reschedule date.....time for the obligatory question - I know we will likely be enjoying a tropical system Sunday night through Tuesday but is it safe to go? Or maybe have a better idea tomorrow evening ?
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Originally Posted by
Red Clay Hills
SV / Scooba - The wife and I are supposed to head to Gulf Shores from east central MS on Sunday morning. We were supposed to go first week of May but then we got the Rona. This is the reschedule date.....time for the obligatory question - I know we will likely be enjoying a tropical system Sunday night through Tuesday but is it safe to go? Or maybe have a better idea tomorrow evening ?
It should be safe as it looks now. Windy and rainy but safe. The only caveat to that is stay out of the water. Rip currents and waves will be hell. We were down there a few years ago on a vacation when a tropical storm was in the area and a guy drowned. We were eating supper watching the coast guard helicopter go back and forth looking for him.
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Member
Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
It should be safe as it looks now. Windy and rainy but safe. The only caveat to that is stay out of the water. Rip currents and waves will be hell. We were down there a few years ago on a vacation when a tropical storm was in the area and a guy drowned. We were eating supper watching the coast guard helicopter go back and forth looking for him.
Dang that's rough. I'm not that brave, though. Hopefully the condo owner won't roll down the protector over the balcony sliding glass door. I've never seen angry waves like that. I want to see the storm if I'm going to be in it right on the beach lol.
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Looking at the latest radar it appears banding is starting to form around the center. Could be a sign what will become Sally is starting to try and organize. Will be making landfall south of Miami. That's potentially significant as it will primarily be crossing swampland with lots of water and very few tall buildings to act like hills to disrupt wind flow. All that to say moving across FL may do very little to weaken the storm.
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Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
Will do. As of now I am planning on being down. Probably leave Monday when I get off work. Probably means I'd miss the onset of tropical form storm winds. One thing of note...with the current track that would put the entire MS coast in the right front quadrant for a prolonged time so there will be a definitive tornado risk for a long time.
Ill take some good vids for ya.
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Some of the models are starting to intensify what will become Sally. Yesterday, most had it as a strong tropical storm and a couple as a hurricane. Today most have it as hurricane and a couple going up to cat 2.
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Storm now forecast to become a hurricane before landfall Tuesday morning.
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HMRF forecasting 121KTS as it makes it's day long landfall/
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Originally Posted by
Red Clay Hills
SV / Scooba - The wife and I are supposed to head to Gulf Shores from east central MS on Sunday morning. We were supposed to go first week of May but then we got the Rona. This is the reschedule date.....time for the obligatory question - I know we will likely be enjoying a tropical system Sunday night through Tuesday but is it safe to go? Or maybe have a better idea tomorrow evening ?
Morning.. just saw this. I gotta tell ya... unless you like watching rain fall might want to reschedule again.. sorry.
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Hey Scooba/SVD I just satw the 3 different models, all updated to 60 hrs out, and the main 3 were so widely different none of them backed each other. GFS has it going into Grand Isle as a TS. HMRF has it now going int Shell Beach as a 969 low. The HMON has Mobile. But the only similarity is the tracks have moved about 30 mile west and on more of a northward pattern that a meandering west one. It's screwing with SVDs planning.
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Member
Originally Posted by
ScoobaDawg
Morning.. just saw this. I gotta tell ya... unless you like watching rain fall might want to reschedule again.. sorry.
Might give the condo owner a call today and see what my options are for reschedule. I don't necessarily mind the rain or wind as we just need to get away for a week. I wouldn't mind watching some rough seas from the condo, even. But I don't want to get into a spot where we are stuck in the condo with the storm shield (roll up door) over the balcony glass and we are just walled in. Or even worse with no power or in a dangerous situation.
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Originally Posted by
Red Clay Hills
Might give the condo owner a call today and see what my options are for reschedule. I don't necessarily mind the rain or wind as we just need to get away for a week. I wouldn't mind watching some rough seas from the condo, even. But I don't want to get into a spot where we are stuck in the condo with the storm shield (roll up door) over the balcony glass and we are just walled in. Or even worse with no power or in a dangerous situation.
You pull a Lt Dan and charter a fishing boat and get out about 10 miles offshore and start saying "You call this a storm?"
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OK rch. I'm changing after reviewing some things this morning.
I would contact your guy and ask deadlines. Models are more west this morning.. But if it gets stronger that makes it turn more north faster than drifting west. Lots to watch but it's barely went across the land today looks like.. So that means it's in better shape earlier which likely means stronger...
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Where are we looking at a landfall? I?ve seen grand isle to mobile.
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We now officially have Sally. Landfall is still forecast for MS/LA line.
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Big difference between models intensity from earlier (i'm catching up on everything) hmon and hwrf (which has been doing pretty good closer to landfall) are looking at it bombing out in the gulf and getting closer to a cat 3 and landing from the mouth of mobile bay to gulfport / bay st louis. Should know a lot more this evening with the newest model runs... everyone on the coast needs to stay aware.
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1pm cst update when upgraded to ts sally
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Land fall somewhere between The Bay and Buras then going North then northeast around Hattiesburg. Forecasting 80mph winds in Gulfport/Biloxi with 5-8 ft surge above ground.
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Originally Posted by
parabrave
Land fall somewhere between The Bay and Buras then going North then northeast around Hattiesburg. Forecasting 80mph winds in Gulfport/Biloxi with 5-8 ft surge above ground.
I'm not sure it won't be stronger.
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Originally Posted by
starkvegasdawg
I'm not sure it won't be stronger.
Just saw the HMRF it now traveling west over the Swamps south of NO then turning north around Homua then heading up 55/ They reduced the surge from 8-6 ft in GPT/BIX.
Last edited by parabrave; 09-12-2020 at 08:48 PM.
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