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Thread: Something to watch in the tropics - TD 19 off FL

  1. #61
    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Morning update...Sally only strengthened 5 mph over night, and is not looking much better this morning yet. That likely means Cat 3 is off the table and cat 2 is max.
    Pressure was 994mb's but a pass in the last few moments observed 991... very possibly will be a hurricane at next update.
    Some minor flooding has already started on the gulf coast.


  2. #62
    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    One thing to note that will need to addressed in this next update... the eye location has shifted over the past 2 hours. the strong convective bursts that formed last night won overall instead of being pulled down to the current eye. This COULD POSSIBLY shift the track further east, but will wait to see.


  3. #63
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    I'll be heading down that direction late this evening or overnight. Right now I'm looking at Gulfport if track stays as currently forecast.

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    The HMON has been forecasting a Pascagoula/Bayou la Batre land fall since yesterday. The NHC tract has shifted east to reflect this. Landfall around the entrance to Biloxi Back Bay. Keep going east .

  5. #65
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    Oh yeah 3 foot high tide this morning. in the yard and over the pier in Big Lake.

  6. #66
    Super Moderator BeastMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Oh yeah 3 foot high tide this morning. in the yard and over the pier in Big Lake.
    Damn. My buddy in OS just called and said there was the most water in all the small bayous he’s ever seen.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeastMan View Post
    Damn. My buddy in OS just called and said there was the most water in all the small bayous he’s ever seen.
    Well the tide was going to be higher than normal anyway today. Hope it keeps going east though.

  8. #68
    Super Moderator BeastMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Well the tide was going to be higher than normal anyway today. Hope it keeps going east though.
    He just sent me some pics from Fort Bayou around Mikey’s and it pretty damn high. Over the dock at Mikey’s all parking lots totally flooded. Hopedale Marina, south of Nola in St Bernard, has 3 update videos on their Instagram. Wild seeing how they all move the trailers and boats to the highway. Whole thing lined with nothing but trailers.

  9. #69
    Super Moderator BeastMan's Avatar
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    Mikey’s


    St Bernard parish

  10. #70
    Senior Member Uncle Ruckus's Avatar
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    So, are we thinking Hancock Co may not be getting much of it anymore since there is hardly anything on the west side of the storm?

  11. #71
    Senior Member FISHDAWG's Avatar
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    Man I miss those $5 oysters @ Mikeys
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  12. #72
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    We live on a small bayou in ocean springs and our pier already has water on it, not completely under yet. I?m about to head over towards mikeys and check it out.

  13. #73
    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Well that changed quick... now a hurricane and 85mph. Pressure down to 985.


  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Ruckus View Post
    So, are we thinking Hancock Co may not be getting much of it anymore since there is hardly anything on the west side of the storm?
    If it follows the current centerline from NHC, that is correct. Still get some surge, but shouldn't be bad with the rain. Still a chance all of MS could miss the weather, especially if it pulls a Marco.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg View Post
    Well that changed quick... now a hurricane and 85mph. Pressure down to 985.

    Now the GFS and the HMRF have it going south of Goula than Heading due north up the Pascagoula river. The official track has it hitting Breton than Beelining to the Bix Ocean Spring Bridge. Need the GFS and HRWF to be accurate.

  16. #76
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    I'm certainly not an expert but watching the future radar looks like it's heading up through Pascagoula/mobile area. Any of the real experts on here have thoughts on that?

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    I'm certainly not an expert but watching the future radar looks like it's heading up through Pascagoula/mobile area. Any of the real experts on here have thoughts on that?
    I surely wouldn?t have any problem with that.

  18. #78
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TimberBeast View Post
    I surely wouldn?t have any problem with that.
    Me either. While I don't live on the coast, i don't want to be on the east side of this thing where all the tornadoes and heavy stuff are. Don't need any trees crashing through my house. That happened during Camille and Katrina so I've seen enough of that lol!

  19. #79
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by parabrave View Post
    Well the tide was going to be higher than normal anyway today. Hope it keeps going east though.
    Is it time for normal "spring tides" or flood tides? When Irma hit here, it was during our flood tide period and flooding was significantly more than during Michael the year before.
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  20. #80
    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    Update 11am was actually up to 90...


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