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Originally Posted by
Coach34
teams always have injuries and the layoff likely ends up producing more than usual. Defense will be Sirmon bad
The defense will not be Sirmon bad.
#SwingUrSword #HailDamnState
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Originally Posted by
Coach34
Our OL should be pretty good, QB and RB will be solid...WR is middle of the pack at best. Defense will be a train wreck. Beating Kentucky would be an upset at their place. Mizzou has a solid team returning. We have a shot at Mississippi and vs Auburn- I just dont think we are good enough defensively to pull it off. A&M will beat us by 10+. They are the 4th best team in the SEC
I know you are a coach and have more insight than I ever will on football, but I think you are missing a key point. Leach is here, any thoughts of way the game has been played for all our lives is gone. So many do not believe in this spread 'em out system and it's methodology or they say our defense stinks. Leach just wins, even vs better talented teams. This year will be no different. I say that State's WR group will have the best year of any group in the SEC and everyone will say, dang those guys were good all along and it's only going to get better with more talent coming. Leach knows how to get guys the ball and make teams defend the entire field.
This is not only not your father's Mississippi State, this won't resemble what we think of as our Mississippi State. They win at least 5 games and maybe 7 with a future that is crazy bright. Just watch...
I am concerned what practicing vs passing all day long everyday does to a defense but hey... They gotta stop us now too.
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Originally Posted by
Hambone
That?s what I don?t get either. Yes, the defense may be suspect this year, but it isn?t like we haven?t been recruiting well on the defensive side. And almost every single person expects the offense to be good this year. We literally have never seen what we are about to see on the offensive side of the ball at this school. IF the newcomers on defense produce then we will be ok. Great thing about this year is no one expects us to do anything. Isn?t that typically when we have our better seasons?
I remember Brian Hadad having a fit before the 2014 season because we were picked 6th in the West however Dak was a preseason all sec QB. KJ is going to destroy Daks passing records playing 2 less games.
I may have a huge amount of egg on my face after this year but I?m just not as doom and gloom as others.
Do they? I am not expecting that. I'm hoping for that, but I don't think in the past Leach has turned out miraculous changes in the offense in year one. We certainly have more talent than he usually has to work with, but the defenses we play will be better week in and week out than Leach has ever had to deal with. And even though we could be very strong at QB, OL, and RB, we are particularly weak at WR. I think we'd be better off if our position groups were more balanced.
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Originally Posted by
Coach34
teams always have injuries and the layoff likely ends up producing more than usual. Defense will be Sirmon bad
Only way we have a Sirmon defense is if Arnett sucks
CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG
Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More
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Originally Posted by
Johnson85
Do they? I am not expecting that. I'm hoping for that, but I don't think in the past Leach has turned out miraculous changes in the offense in year one. We certainly have more talent than he usually has to work with, but the defenses we play will be better week in and week out than Leach has ever had to deal with. And even though we could be very strong at QB, OL, and RB, we are particularly weak at WR. I think we'd be better off if our position groups were more balanced.
People that have watched practice expect us to be a solid offensive football team. Our receivers are not horrible. A quarterback that can hit the broad side of a barn and an offense that isn’t as complicated as trigonometry will help Mississippi raised players a lot.
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Originally Posted by
Jarius
People that have watched practice expect us to be a solid offensive football team. Our receivers are not horrible. A quarterback that can hit the broad side of a barn and an offense that isn’t as complicated as trigonometry will help Mississippi raised players a lot.
So will reps. We've caught more balls in practice than we ever have. Our wr play will be better than some think. Not great. But solid.
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Originally Posted by
Hambone
Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)
There is a good chance for us to get 5.
I will not be super shocked if we don?t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)
Not sure about the % but that is our path to 5 or 6 if we are lucky.
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Originally Posted by
KOdawg1
Had time on my hands and wanted to talk football, so here's my projected starting line-up and the first ones off the bench. Feel free to disagree or create your own if you wish.
QB:
KJ Costello....Will Rogers
RB:
Kylin Hill....Jo'Quavious Marks
WR:
Outside:
Osirus Mitchell....Tyrell Shavers
Malik Heath....Tulu Griffin (think he's starting by the end of the year either here or the slot)
Slot:
Javonta Payton....Geor'quarius Spivey
Austin Williams....Rufus Harvey
OL:
LT- Charles Cross....Scott Lashley
LG- Dareuan Parker....Laquinston Sharp
C- Cole Smith....Laquinston Sharp/James Jackson
RG- Greg Eiland....Nick Pendley
RT- Dolla Bill....Scott Lashley/Greg Eiland
DL:
DE-
Kobe Jones....Aaron Odom
Marquiss Spencer....Jack Harris/Jaden Crumedy (can play both DE and DT)
DT-
Nathan Pickering....Jaden Crumedy
LB:
MLB- Errol Thompson....Tyrus Wheat
OLB- Aaron Brule....Nate Watson
Rush/Edge- Jordan Davis....Tre Lawson
CB:
Martin Emerson....Esaias Furdge
Emmanuel Forbes....Malik Sanders/Kyle Cass (once he gets passed the learning curve)
S:
FS- Marcus Murphy....Shawn Preston
SS- Collin Duncan....Janari Dean/Landon Guidry
Dog- Fred Peters....JP Purvis
Agree on some that on paper, we don't look too bad. Our OL is very talented on two deep. Very good in a lot of other spots too. If the new WR produce, then watch out. They will help our D out a lot.
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Originally Posted by
Hambone
That?s what I don?t get either. Yes, the defense may be suspect this year, but it isn?t like we haven?t been recruiting well on the defensive side. And almost every single person expects the offense to be good this year. We literally have never seen what we are about to see on the offensive side of the ball at this school. IF the newcomers on defense produce then we will be ok. Great thing about this year is no one expects us to do anything. Isn?t that typically when we have our better seasons?
I remember Brian Hadad having a fit before the 2014 season because we were picked 6th in the West however Dak was a preseason all sec QB. KJ is going to destroy Daks passing records playing 2 less games.
I may have a huge amount of egg on my face after this year but I?m just not as doom and gloom as others.
I agree and I don't think our defense will be terrible. Sure we got a lot of youngsters, but they're highly regarded youngsters, I think they will step up.
Praise The Lord and Go Dawgs!!!
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Originally Posted by
Hambone
Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)
There is a good chance for us to get 5.
I will not be super shocked if we don?t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)
Just a quick refresher for anyone who's interested on undergrad probability.
The chance for us to go 5-0 in that stretch would be 0.95*0.95*0.80*0.70*0.65=32.85%.
So, it's more likely that we don't go 5-0 in that stretch than we do. I think calling it a "good chance" is a bit of a stretch.
However, the probability of us winning at least 4 games in that stretch with the possibility of a loss to Kentucky would be 32.85%+0.95*0.95*0.80*0.70*(1-0.65)=32.85%+17.69%=50.54% (a coin flip)
Last edited by bostondawg; 09-06-2020 at 02:54 PM.
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We're going to get blown up up front on defense by most of the teams we play. They'll play ball control to keep our offense on the sidelines. I know people are high on our DL, but I worry about the front 7. If we can't stop the run against SEC teams, that's a bad recipe. I think the over/under W/L should be 4.5. The one thing that gives me hope for 5 or 6 wins is that Leach is much more likely to upset some better teams with his system. Mullen rarely lost to worse teams, but also rarely upset better teams. Leach will do both more often. I just hope our fan base doesn't freak when we drop a game or two we should've won. This is going to take 2-3 years.
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Basically, it’s a complete unknown on this year until we play. Could we win 6? Sure. Could we win 3? Also just as possible. We simply don’t know, and that’s why I love this board because many bring up good points on both sides of the optimist/pessimist side of the coin. I think 4-6 is my prediction.
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Originally Posted by
Political Hack
We're going to get blown up up front on defense by most of the teams we play. They'll play ball control to keep our offense on the sidelines. I know people are high on our DL, but I worry about the front 7. If we can't stop the run against SEC teams, that's a bad recipe. I think the over/under W/L should be 4.5. The one thing that gives me hope for 5 or 6 wins is that Leach is much more likely to upset some better teams with his system. Mullen rarely lost to worse teams, but also rarely upset better teams. Leach will do both more often. I just hope our fan base doesn't freak when we drop a game or two we should've won. This is going to take 2-3 years.
For better or worse, this is where I think Arnett's scheme will play a big role this season.
In the Joe Lee system, your band was playing or the other team's band was playing & I see an similar outcome here.
You say teams will play ball control vs us but I'm not sure Arnett's scheme is condusive to the other team playing ball control. This isn't the Mullen bend but don't break style that runs the clock down.
This is blitzing from different places & taking chances, which is the right style with Leach's offense, because either way it should get the ball back to the offense fairly quickly.
Teams may try to run the ball down our throats, but with all the run blitzing we'll be doing, I think you're going to see us give up a good many explosive runs but also create a lot of tackles behind the LOS. Both of which aren't conducive to milking the clock
Last edited by ShotgunDawg; 09-07-2020 at 10:39 AM.
CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG
Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More
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Originally Posted by
ShotgunDawg
For better or worse, this is where I think Arnett's scheme will play a big role this season.
You can have a great scheme and get your ass beat because you simply dont have the players. Our talent level defensively is easily bottom half of the SEC and may not be top 10
Walk like the King or walk like you don't care who the King is
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Originally Posted by
Political Hack
We're going to get blown up up front on defense by most of the teams we play. They'll play ball control to keep our offense on the sidelines. I know people are high on our DL, but I worry about the front 7. If we can't stop the run against SEC teams, that's a bad recipe. I think the over/under W/L should be 4.5. The one thing that gives me hope for 5 or 6 wins is that Leach is much more likely to upset some better teams with his system. Mullen rarely lost to worse teams, but also rarely upset better teams. Leach will do both more often. I just hope our fan base doesn't freak when we drop a game or two we should've won. This is going to take 2-3 years.
Very good assessment. Give Leach and Arnett some time and I believe we'll see good things happen.
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Originally Posted by
Ifyouonlyknew
Offense
QB - Costello/Shrader or Rogers
RB - Hill/Marks
WR - Mitchell/Shavers
WR - Heath/Tulu
WR - Payton/Spivey
WR - Williams/Cumbest
LT - Cross/Lashley
LG - Eiland/Sharp
C - Smith/Jackson
RG - Parker/Pendley
RT - Dolla/Lashley
Defense
DE - Kobe/Harris
NG - Crumedy/Pickering
DE - Spencer/Odom
Hybrid - Davis/Wheat
MLB - Errol/Watson
WLB - Brule/Watson
CB - Emerson/Sanders
CB - Furdge or Forbes
Dog - Murphy/Purvis
FS - Peters/Guidry
SS - Duncan/Preston
What you got on Caleb Ducking?
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Originally Posted by
Ifyouonlyknew
Offense
QB - Costello/Shrader or Rogers
RB - Hill/Marks
WR - Mitchell/Shavers
WR - Heath/Tulu
WR - Payton/Spivey
WR - Williams/Cumbest
LT - Cross/Lashley
LG - Eiland/Sharp
C - Smith/Jackson
RG - Parker/Pendley
RT - Dolla/Lashley
Defense
DE - Kobe/Harris
NG - Crumedy/Pickering
DE - Spencer/Odom
Hybrid - Davis/Wheat
MLB - Errol/Watson
WLB - Brule/Watson
CB - Emerson/Sanders
CB - Furdge or Forbes
Dog - Murphy/Purvis
FS - Peters/Guidry
SS - Duncan/Preston
So, who are we gonna lose off this beside KJ, Hill and maybe Erroll?? We might be LOADED in 2021!!
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Originally Posted by
Coach34
5 wins gonna be tough to get.
It's going to hard for a lot of teams in the SEC. 4 wins will be equivalent to a 8 win season. 5 wins will be like a 9 win season.
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Originally Posted by
Jack Lambert
It's going to hard for a lot of teams in the SEC. 4 wins will be equivalent to a 8 win season. 5 wins will be like a 9 win season.
That's not true. 9 wins would be 5-3 in-conference plus all 4 OOC games. I wouldn't call going 5-5 in-conference equivalent to that. I'd say 6 wins is roughly equivalent to 9, 5 wins about equal to 7-8, and 4 wins the same as about 6-7.
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Originally Posted by
Tripp McNeely
So, who are we gonna lose off this beside KJ, Hill and maybe Erroll?? We might be LOADED in 2021!!
Based on comments from the guys at 247 I would not expect many if any at all senior starters to return even with the extra year of eligibility. I would assume they are talking to the players about that option and they don't plan on coming back.
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