ESPN FPI Says We Go 4-8 or 5-7

[Jack Lambert]

They are just offended we fired a coach after making it to a bowl game. They are just trying to put us back in our place.

[dawgday166]

They use dano to develop their probability and statistical algorithms and one of their (ESPN's) OM grads that work there to input the Ground Rules & Assumptions **** That's why the results turn out like they do ****

[ShotgunDawg]

I have no clue what we will look like.

Well... nobody does. That's why you have to prognosticate & attempt to put the pieces of the puzzle together.

Due to Leach & the lack of Spring practice, it wouldn't shock me if we did something like lose at NC State & then beat LSU or something like that

[parabrave]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/season/2020

It hates us. Heard brad Edwards discussing. Said 15% chance to beat Aggie at home
20% to beat KY on road
25% to beat OM on road
slight underdog vs Mizzou and NC State
53% chance to beat Ark at home

For comparison, Bartoo's college football matrix says 6.5 wins.

They do know that JOMO isn't here anymore? I would say that the lack of a spring peactice hurts us but other teams got new coaches also and are in the same boat.

[Todd4State]

The problem with these metrics is that they HAVE to use data from previous seasons. I don't care how much they tweak them- that's the only data that they have to use.

It basically assumes that a team's returning players are always going to maybe marginally improve.

It's assuming that we're starting Shrader or maybe an injured Costello. It's not taking into account any of our JUCO's- and yes I think Malik Heath and Jordan Davis are going to be impact guys coming in. It's assuming that Marcus Murphy is only playing in 4-5 games. I've already touched on the other issues in a previous post.

In other words I suspect that odds are we are going to outperform the metrics. We're very likely an outlier.

[TUSK]

Sounds like some of you cats are gonna be wealthy....

[BB30]

Us being lower than arky and OM is a big head scratcher. That being said, I could see a scenario where we only win 5 games. We are lacking in depth and or have a lot of youth in a bunch of spots. A couple of injuries to key players and it could turn rough quick.

Costello does us zero good if our WR unit doesn't improve significantly. Our secondary was young last year so hopefully they are improved but we looked lost back there at times.

I don't think anyone has enough data/knowledge yet on this team to make a decent prognostication as to what our Ws and Ls will look like. I also don't think anyone could make an educated guess as to how good Arky and OM will be either so it does seem as though we are getting screwed a little.

I really don't know what to make of this team at the moment though and I don't think anyone will until we see them on the field assuming that we get to.

[Coach34]

We're not going to be very good this Fall- but should get to 6 wins. We will be one of the worst D's in the SEC and our depth is just not there. Playing more plays on D wont help either thanks to the Pirate's O.

No Spring practice for the O to gel, questionable at WR, Throwing more with the team that was 12th in the SEC in sacks allowed.

Will be happy with 6 wins

[ShotgunDawg]

We're not going to be very good this Fall- but should get to 6 wins. We will be one of the worst D's in the SEC and our depth is just not there. Playing more plays on D wont help either thanks to the Pirate's O.

No Spring practice for the O to gel, questionable at WR, Throwing more with the team that was 12th in the SEC in sacks allowed.

Will be happy with 6 wins

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.

[Ari Gold]

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.

3 and outs are much worse that any hurry up fast tempo offense there is..
and strong stat with the 24/29...

[Ari Gold]

Willie only played 3 1/2 games
Autry 4
Lovette ( based on info from a few wasn’t buying in )
Rivers
Cole
Dantlzler
Leo
Smitherman ( played half the season )

Yeah that’s losing guys but who jumps out besides Dantzler and Gay
I thought Cole was very underrated tho and I bet he makes An NFL roster
Rivers not as good as me and others thought he would be

We also get Murphy back for full season
And the juco guys will make an impact from day one. A big impact..
Lot of young guys will have to step up But on paper we have some cats...

We won’t be the defense of 2018 but we damn sure won’t be the defense of 2016 and that team won 5 games

No reason with the QB / RB /and the OL will still be pretty dame good. Also I’m not worried about the WR can’t be any worse than in any years of the past and this offense will make them better

I don’t think we have never lost to both Aub and AM at home in the same year..
So I will go with trends and we will for sure be better coached, better on offense , better conditioning , and better focused..

Make it 11 straight bowl seasons and 7 or 8 wins and I bet Vegas doesn’t have us lower than 5.5 or 6 wins

[Jack Lambert]

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.

The only thing for sure is Leach can get the most out of his offensive guys. It's going to be a 6 to 7 win season. Maybe Leach will get that big upset and make the season feel like a 10 win season. I do think the defense will be better than we think. I like or DC. He too will get the most out of his guys. I'm just excited to see his defense in action as I am Leaches offense.

I remember DM first season we only won five games but it felt like a winning season. I guess it was the change in mood after five years of Croom. To a certain extent this season will be the same with a change of mood.

[Bubb Rubb]

We're not going to be very good this Fall- but should get to 6 wins. We will be one of the worst D's in the SEC and our depth is just not there. Playing more plays on D wont help either thanks to the Pirate's O.

No Spring practice for the O to gel, questionable at WR, Throwing more with the team that was 12th in the SEC in sacks allowed.

Will be happy with 6 wins

Leach likes to brag about how easy it is to pick up his offense. We'll put that to the test. But with Kostello at QB and Hill catching the ball out of the backfield, along with Payton, Mitchell, and our offensive line, we are going to be fine offensively. We should have a defense that ends up somewhere in the middle of the SEC pack.

This is a 7/8 win team with our schedule, provided we don't have key injuries.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.

3 and outs are much worse that any hurry up fast tempo offense there is..
and strong stat with the 24/29...

We talked about this in January after Leach was hired. Y'all are right. After Leach's first two years at WSU, they were usually either in the middle or in the upper third of the nation in teams with the least opponents' plays per game. And regardless of their national ranks, the difference between the number of plays WSU's D faced and the number that State's D faced wasn't often that large.

Opponents' plays per game:

2012: WSU - 76.5 / State - 73
2013: WSU - 80.2 / State - 66.9
2014: WSU - 72.8 / State - 77.5
2015: WSU - 75.6 / State - 76.2
2016: WSU - 68.7 / State - 72.8
2017: WSU - 67.3 / State - 62.5
2018: WSU - 66.8 / State - 65.6
2019: WSU - 69.8 / State - 64.4

That said, I agree with C34 that the transition could be rough on D. Putting aside the new scheme, we're once again crazy inexperienced. Out of 130 FBS teams, we're 113th in returning defensive production. That's lowest in the SEC. (Before the suspensions last year, we were 90th in that stat, if you'd like a reference point.) Teams like LSU and Clemson are often low in that category, too, because of all their early draftees, but they've got blue-chip talent in every class to fill in the gaps. We've got some talent there like we usually do, but it's hard to overcome a complete lack of experience.

The cancellation of spring practice probably isn't doing us any favors, either, especially with a new transfer QB and entirely new systems on both sides of the ball.

[Ari Gold]

We talked about this in January after Leach was hired. Y'all are right. After Leach's first two years at WSU, they were usually either in the middle or in the upper third of the nation in teams with the least opponents' plays per game. And regardless of their national ranks, the difference between the number of plays WSU's D faced and the number that State's D faced wasn't often that large.

Opponents' plays per game:

2012: WSU - 76.5 / State - 73
2013: WSU - 80.2 / State - 66.9
2014: WSU - 72.8 / State - 77.5
2015: WSU - 75.6 / State - 76.2
2016: WSU - 68.7 / State - 72.8
2017: WSU - 67.3 / State - 62.5
2018: WSU - 66.8 / State - 65.6
2019: WSU - 69.8 / State - 64.4

That said, I agree with C34 that the transition could be rough on D. Putting aside the new scheme, we're once again crazy inexperienced. Out of 130 FBS teams, we're 113th in returning defensive production. That's lowest in the SEC. (Before the suspensions last year, we were 90th in that stat, if you'd like a reference point.) Teams like LSU and Clemson are often low in that category, too, because of all their early draftees, but they've got blue-chip talent in every class to fill in the gaps. We've got some talent there like we usually do, but it's hard to overcome a complete lack of experience.

The cancellation of spring practice probably isn't doing us any favors, either, especially with a new transfer QB and entirely new systems on both sides of the ball.

New coaches and systems at
Mizzu / arky / and OM
New QBs at
UK/ Mizzu / Arky and prob OM

So the circumstances this spring will effect them just as much as us
I like our chances in all of those games
And if you beat NC state

There’s 8 wins..

That’s not going out on a limb at all .. will we win all of those ?? . maybe not .. we will win more of those than we lose? I would bet yes

It’s ok to be glass half full fans and to be very excited ... it’s not wearing maroon glasses , or ridiculous expectations To think we can’t win 7 or 8 games

[Bothrops]

I feel like strong run teams will have no problem scoring against us. Our secondary will be key on whether or not we are a total disaster on defense early on.

[ShotgunDawg]

I feel like strong run teams will have no problem scoring against us. Our secondary will be key on whether or not we are a total disaster on defense early on.

That's where Arnett's aggressive defense will have to make some big tackle for losses to take those ground & pound teams out of their game.

[Prediction? Pain.]

New coaches and systems at
Mizzu / arky / and OM
New QBs at
UK/ Mizzu / Arky and prob OM

So the circumstances this spring will effect them just as much as us
I like our chances in all of those games
And if you beat NC state

There’s 8 wins..

That’s not going out on a limb at all .. will we win all of those ?? . maybe not .. we will win more of those than we lose? I would bet yes

It’s ok to be glass half full fans and to be very excited ... it’s not wearing maroon glasses , or ridiculous expectations To think we can’t win 7 or 8 games

Those are great points and I think it's totally reasonable to think we've got great chances to win all those games. And I think that could happen even with a D that struggles because of inexperience and an offense that takes a bit to get rolling after a total overhaul schematically (and culturally (both likely for the better, of course)). Our D was atrocious many times last year and we still weren't too many plays away from finishing the regular season 7-5.

Also, I'm beyond excited about next season. Not sure how you couldn't be leading up to Year 1 under Leach. I'm just a cautious stick in the mud.

[Extendedcab]

Problem is that Arkansas & Ole Miss both have new coaches as well. The formula doesn't make any sense. I don't understand it all, but I know it's in MSU fans blood to "understand" everything ...

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if they confused Ole Miss & MSU

They have before - 1996 mens basketball run to the final 4 - cap given to players said Mississippi instead of MSU. Richard Williams was livid!

[Coach34]

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.

Sighhhhh...I'll explain it one more time for everyone. Hopefully it will start sinking in

A) Under JoVester and Mullen- we were a predomiant run heavy team. Run-heavy keeps the clocks moving. Under JoVester- we averaged 40 runs per game and 24 passes per game. We are about to flip that ratio. We are not good at WR- there will be alot more incompletions in 2020- stopping the clock.

B) Defense is simply played differently in the SEC than in the Pac-12. JoVester found out about that. Teams are going to rush 4 and 5- lock up man underneath and let the safety/safeties run to the ball. They dont play that way near as much in the Pac-12.

C) We're not going to be very good on D- especially at LB and in the Secondary. DL should be improved but will still lack a pass rush. That will cause us to play more plays defensively also unless we give up too many big plays to shorten drives against us. This lack of depth will hurt alot in the hot climate that is September and October in Miss