https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/season/2020
It hates us. Heard brad Edwards discussing. Said 15% chance to beat Aggie at home
20% to beat KY on road
25% to beat OM on road
slight underdog vs Mizzou and NC State
53% chance to beat Ark at home
For comparison, Bartoo's college football matrix says 6.5 wins.
I'm not saying we're going to win 8 or 9 games, but the FPI is off here.Originally Posted by confucius say
Problem is, we don't know the formula enough to know where the issue is.
The 53% chance of beating Arkansas can't be correct. That doesn't make any sense at all from any perspective.
CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG
Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More
The early FPI is heavily weighted to returning production. We lost our top producing passer, our #2 & #3 rushers; our #2, 3, & 4 WR; Tacklers #2, 3, 4, 7 & 9 plus Willie Gay; and the players who produced 7 of our 11 INTS.
Off a 6-7 team.
"After dealing with Ole Miss for over a year," he said, "I've learned to expect their leadership to do and say things that the leadership at other Division I schools would never consider doing and to justify their actions by reminding themselves that "We're Ole Miss.""
- Tom Mars, Esq. 4.9.18
Perhaps we're a conundrum that the computer struggles to calculate this year due to Leach & Costello.
Either way, this is incorrect & worthless
CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG
Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More
We are not a conundrum - we lost a ton of production off of an under-performing team, and have a new coaching staff. That factors heavily into pre-season FPI:
In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.
Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.
-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.
-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.
-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.
-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.
Preseason FPI debuted in 2014, and you can read more about how it performed in these recaps of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. In short, if preseason FPI, which was run retroactively to 2005, had been used with no update to predict every game over the last 10 seasons, the FPI favorite would have won 72 percent of FBS-versus-FBS games (Vegas closing line was 75 percent accurate).
"After dealing with Ole Miss for over a year," he said, "I've learned to expect their leadership to do and say things that the leadership at other Division I schools would never consider doing and to justify their actions by reminding themselves that "We're Ole Miss.""
- Tom Mars, Esq. 4.9.18
Yes, but Ole Miss & Arkansas are in the same situation. That's the issue here
CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG
Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More
I hate that Leach hasn't found a receiver named Abbot. Abbot and Costello would be glorious!
According to Edwards in his OOB interview he said they DID actually tweak the formula to not put as much emphasis on returning production and instead replaced it with returning talent. I guess they go by their own recruiting rankings to determine that, which is another topic. Also he said the formula isn't high on Costello because it only factors in the previous year production. And another thing is that it doesn't factor in overall coaching effect like Bartoo's does.
He ended up contradicting himself a bunch with the FPI results because even according to their recruiting rankings we've outrecruited Arky, Mizz, Kentucky, NCState the last 5 years. And said it DOES factor in if you have a first year coach (typically a down year) and said that it hurts State but didn't mention that Ark, Mizz, OM all have first year coaches too.
Basically its just a really bad formula that I have a feeling will get blown apart this year.
Then it's worthless.
Computers are only as good as the information that is put into them &, if they're incapable of putting in quality information, then the FPI is worthless as a source
CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG
Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More
Yea it is. Will say tho that with Covid and all the changes ... I have no idea what we'll put on the field this year. But I also think OM is in same boat and not sure how they're ahead of us. But ... they were always ahead of us in old FPI too.
ETA: And according to ESPN recruiting rankings, it seems like there are several teams that should have more "returning talent".
Actually, we lost #3 and #4 rushers Gibson and QB Stevens. #1, #2, & #5 return + a 4* with great potential. Rushing has MUCH greater potential than in '19.
Shrader was only 4.0 less in efficiency & <3% less than Stevens .. with Will Rogers and Costello easily > loss of Stevens.
Our 'leading' WR only caught 30, our #2 caught 30. Just see way more potential with Leech O than we got in '19.
Just don't see that much of a drop off in D. Willie Gay will be missed but only played like 2.3 full games in '19.
Coach34 .. "We're not hiring the ****ing Pirate at Miss State. GTFO"
Yeah - I was off on a couple, but it's still indicative of the amount of production we are losing.
And I agree with your points - but it is also not what they are using to formulate FPI. I'm not making an argument that we are going to be 5-7 like the FPI claims, only that the way FPI looks at us on paper is essentially only calculating one factor right now - returning production.
"After dealing with Ole Miss for over a year," he said, "I've learned to expect their leadership to do and say things that the leadership at other Division I schools would never consider doing and to justify their actions by reminding themselves that "We're Ole Miss.""
- Tom Mars, Esq. 4.9.18
Did OM and arky suddenly get much better? Wow. I'm tempering my expectations, new coach, new scheme, missed spring practice, etc. but I believe we win 6-7 for sure. Heck Leach is a much better coach than joe and joe won 6 last year.
They did not.
The formula is off somehow. Doesn't pass in the smell test.
CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG
Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More
While I don't agree w it, and think it's low, I can understand it. Our defense wasnt good and lost several key players. Our offense, should be ok to good but it's unknown in CML first year. He's had struggles in his first years and we have little WR talent. With all that said, we are going to have to score to win SEC games. Can we score enough. I'd take 7 wins and go to the house.
Problem is that Arkansas & Ole Miss both have new coaches as well. The formula doesn't make any sense. I don't understand it all, but I know it's in MSU fans blood to "understand" everything ...
It honestly wouldn't surprise me if they confused Ole Miss & MSU
Last edited by ShotgunDawg; 05-06-2020 at 09:17 AM.
CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG
Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More
They have before - 1996 mens basketball run to the final 4 - cap given to players said Mississippi instead of MSU. Richard Williams was livid!
wonder what Vegas says ... I'll take them over some ESPN analyst ... most usually predict the under on us but this just seems way off with very little thought or research put into it
OXFORD, Miss. (WTVA) - Ole Miss campus police ask students to behave at future baseball games following a recent incident.
The university said students were reportedly throwing rocks at Georgia baseball players during last weekend's series.
Vegas has us at 6.5, which is significantly more reasonable. Again, the FPI is off somehow, but without the formula, it's impossible to know what the issue is
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/co...als-best-odds/
CAN'T PUT A SADDLE ON A MUSTANG
Quit Your Bi$&$&?!, He's Not Going to Run the Ball More
Same shit different year
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