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Thread: Easter Sunday Severe?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Easter Sunday Severe?

    Going to start off with this has a lot of ifs to it, but this Sunday has the potential to have some possibly significant severe weather for parts of MS. There's still some disagreements between the Euro and GFS models and which one ends up being right will determine what happens where. The latest model runs with the GFS show the severe threat much reduced and primarily confined to near the coast. However, the Euro is much stronger and brings the severe threat further north to the I-20 corridor and possibly as far north as the Highway 82 corridor. Interestingly enough, both models have dug in on their respective positions the last couple days. I don't like mentioning severe weather without better agreement among the models, but with it being 1. Easter Sunday and 2. The type event that could unfold should the Euro prove the winner I went ahead and pulled the trigger.

    I know almost every church has canceled services through Easter, but even at home this system may bear watching. If, big if, the Euro is right, have some way to get warnings while you're streaming your Easter Sunday service as this may kick off late morning to early afternoon.

    Now back to arguing over corona virus and bitching about Vic leaving.

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    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Thanks Stark

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Pieces starting to come together for a potential significant severe weather event Sunday. Models still not in complete agreement, but all are starting to slow down the timing. The overnight euro was even slower than before. What this all means is that it will give the storm more time to draw up rich unstable air from the Gulf and also allow the low pressure to take on a more negative tilt which will cause the winds to be favorable for discrete supercells and tornadoes. While not etched in stone, this system has the potential to be substantial. We wont know for sure until we get closer and the models get a better grasp on it, but if you live in MS /AL (particularly along or south of Highway 82) then you need to start making sure your severe weather plans are ready just in case.

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    Senior Member basedog's Avatar
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    I'm in the emergency response logistics with many utility or power companies. I have a concern with the Hurricane season this year, above average predictions and all the staging sites we work with so many companies bringing crews in to restore power. As of today with all this virus stuff, can't image how this will be handled with these staging sites.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    The latest from Jackson NWS:

    The main severe weather threat will be during the day on Sunday with convection residing within a prefrontal surface trough. However, the
    actual cold front will be lagging well behind the system and is forecast to still be in eastern Oklahoma by Sunday evening. The
    boundary of interest will actually be a pseudo dryline with the actual cold front not reaching the region until Monday. The parameter space within the highly sheared warm sector will support the potential for a significant severe weather episode. Deep layer shear vectors oriented off the boundary will also be supportive of discrete supercells with all modes of severe weather including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.


    This is still shaping up to be a very dangerous day across parts of MS / AL.

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    There's some possiblity of severe weather tonight/early tomorrow morning also, last time I checked.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    There's some possiblity of severe weather tonight/early tomorrow morning also, last time I checked.
    There is but it's mainly up into TN. Had some severe storms near a meridian and may see some more redevelop over north MS overnight, but the main event is definitely Sunday.

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    Vic left?

    Damn this is why we need a sports board.

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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    There is but it's mainly up into TN. Had some severe storms near a meridian and may see some more redevelop over north MS overnight, but the main event is definitely Sunday.
    We had a renegade severe warned storm move through about an hour ago. Looks like it's hanging together as it goes to the SE. Tornado watch for the western half of Tennessee. I wouldn't be surprised to have it move south a little since storms are supposed to come through in the wee hours of the morning. Might miss most if not all of northern Miss though. Meridian storms have totally dissipated.

    But yes, Sunday is likey a bigger event. But you never know - the Nashville-and-points-east tornadoes sorta came out of the blue. Nothing like that was really expected.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    The news continues to point to a volatile, dangerous Easter Sunday.

    From the SPC:

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears possible on Sunday
    across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and possibly into
    Georgia by Sunday night. Tornadoes (potentially strong/long-tracked)
    and widespread damaging winds are expected to be the primary
    hazards.


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    Senior Member THE Bruce Dickinson's Avatar
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    Starkvegas, is this shaping up to be 4/27/11 kind of bad? I've seen a few of your tweets and they sound concerning.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by THE Bruce Dickinson View Post
    Starkvegas, is this shaping up to be 4/27/11 kind of bad? I've seen a few of your tweets and they sound concerning.
    4/27/11 was a generational level event. The last one of that magnitude before that was the super outbreak of 1974. So while Sunday could be bad and see several tornadoes, I have no belief it will even approach 4/27.

    General rule of thumb, whenever you see anybody on social media trying to compare a severe event to 4/27, you can be 99.999% sure they're fear mongering looking for clicks.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Most of MS is now under a moderate risk for severe weather as an outbreak continues to look more and more likely. Violent long track tornadoes continue to be a concern along with straight line winds of 70-80mph and large hail. This is shaping up to be a dangerous volatile day.


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    Senior Member Bubb Rubb's Avatar
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    It's pretty unusual that you see all of the models come into close agreement on the worst case scenario. A day 3 moderate forecast is pretty rare. Sunday could be a really bad day.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb View Post
    It's pretty unusual that you see all of the models come into close agreement on the worst case scenario. A day 3 moderate forecast is pretty rare. Sunday could be a really bad day.
    Agreed. They'll usually disagree about something. A day 3 mod is a pretty rare event. I think in the last 20 years or so it's happened 10 times. Of those, 6-7 have gone on to be high risk days.

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    What area will yall most likely look to chase? 82 north -82 south

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgoneyall View Post
    What area will yall most likely look to chase? 82 north -82 south
    If I had to make a final decision now I'd probably set up somewhere just west of Jackson where I had a good north south road. These storms are supposed to be moving around 50mph or more so got to stay out in front of them.

    ETA: As of right now, somewhere between Tchula and Yazoo City would look to be good staging points.
    Last edited by starkvegasdawg; 04-10-2020 at 07:20 AM.

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    Hey SVD check your SWx Outbreak History and how many Easter outbreaks do we have? It seems every 4-5 years we have one.

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    Official Elitedawg Weather Forecaster TheRef's Avatar
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    Hey guys, long time no post. ANYWAY, I felt like this is a good time as any to come back and post about weather. Looking at the soundings and models, it does seem like there is a good agreement of severe weather over Central MS, Northern AL, and Northeast LA portions of Middle Tennessee. Now with long-track tornadoes highly possible with this setup, I wouldn't be surprised if we wake up Sunday morning to a High risk area over an area covering from about just east of Greenwood stretching up towards the Huntsville area. As far as height of the area, I wouldn't be surprised if Greenwood is the northern end and a line equal with Jackson on the Southern end of this high-risk area. Not to say that SPC can't adjust the lines of this going forward (and they will) I just think that's going to be the proverbial "bullseye" of the system. The SPC discussion points out that there is a likelihood of long-track tornadoes and widespread wind damage. We may be looking at a quall event later on that has leading isolated cells that could become tornadic in nature. If these cells get an inhibited flow from the Gulf, expect these things to turn into monsters. SVD, I'm sure you have been looking at the models a little bit more than I have lately. But I'm sure everyone should be looking through their severe weather plans, making sure with local authorities that local storm shelters will be available if a watch/warning is issued (please do this...not sure how many municipalities and counties are going to change their procedures due to COVID). Most of all, PLEASE heed the warnings from the National Weather Service and your local meteorologists.
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    Official Elitedawg Weather Forecaster TheRef's Avatar
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    As a follow-up, here is the NAM sounding for around the Columbus, MS area for around 7 PM Sunday. What this shows is a perfect environment for rapid storm development if it verifies.

    Last edited by TheRef; 04-10-2020 at 12:53 PM.
    B.S. Geosciences, Professional Meteorology Concentration, Operational Emphasis
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