The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[StateDawg44]

Or we are doing more to stop the spread than anyone thought....

But we knew that if we did this right, there would be those that don't understand how bad it would have been without shutting it all down...

That said, Harris County Texas with the largest medical city in the world, has a 7% death rate. If the number of cases is off by 10x, that's still a 0.7% death rate...and that doesn't add the died at home but never tested group...

https://harriscounty.maps.arcgis.com...5efcb7c07c6914

One can still believe (even from the beginning of alllll of this) that it's not as bad as they feared and also understand where we are now and appreciate the benefits that social distancing has given. I don't see anyone arguing that there is no possibility that it may have been worse if social distancing and quarantining wasn't implemented.


Why try to make it sound like ones opinion must fall on one side or the other?

[Dawgology]

One can still believe (even from the beginning of alllll of this) that it's not as bad as they feared and also understand where we are now and appreciate the benefits that social distancing has given. I don't see anyone arguing that there is no possibility that it may have been worse if social distancing and quarantining wasn't implemented.


Why try to make it sound like ones opinion must fall on one side or the other?

This

[turkish]

Virus has been about what I expected. Economic impacts are worse than I expected and getting worse still. I?m not talking about the stock market, either. Whole lot of folks that are still pretty comfortable are gonna be out of a job before the end of the summer.

[Commercecomet24]

One can still believe (even from the beginning of alllll of this) that it's not as bad as they feared and also understand where we are now and appreciate the benefits that social distancing has given. I don't see anyone arguing that there is no possibility that it may have been worse if social distancing and quarantining wasn't implemented.


Why try to make it sound like ones opinion must fall on one side or the other?

Yep.

[hacker]

I think the IHME model (60k deaths model) is way too conservative.

First of all, the way this model works is that they selected a mathematical curve and added data to it. It doesn't take into account the fact that our new cases are still about the same as they were 10 days ago. It expects the tail end of the curve to be more like a freefall and I don't think that's going to happen.

You can look at Spain and Italy on this model and see how they're supposed to be down to 100-200 deaths per day right now, yet they're still around 600. It says they'll be under 100 deaths per day by next week.

Finally, for the US, it predicts we'll have ZERO deaths after June 27th. That would mean we'd have to virtually eliminate all new cases within about a month. Does anyone see that happening?

[Jack Lambert]

I think the IHME model (60k deaths model) is way too conservative.

First of all, the way this model works is that they selected a mathematical curve and added data to it. It doesn't take into account the fact that our new cases are still about the same as they were 10 days ago. It expects the tail end of the curve to be more like a freefall and I don't think that's going to happen.

You can look at Spain and Italy on this model and see how they're supposed to be down to 100-200 deaths per day right now, yet they're still around 600. It says they'll be under 100 deaths per day by next week.

Finally, for the US, it predicts we'll have ZERO deaths after June 27th. That would mean we'd have to virtually eliminate all new cases within about a month. Does anyone see that happening?

I would say there more then 23K death already. I suspect there are 1000's who died from it that died back in December and January before we really knew about it. . Again my opinion.

[hacker]

I would say there more then 23K death already. I suspect there are 1000's who died from it that died back in December and January before we really knew about it. . Again my opinion.

I agree with your first sentence, but for a different reason. People are dying that weren't tested.

But regarding December / January, they've been going back and re-testing flu swabs / blood samples in Washington and California (probably other places too). They aren't finding any unknown cases before January 20th (the first known case in the US).

[turkish]

I think the IHME model (60k deaths model) is way too conservative.

First of all, the way this model works is that they selected a mathematical curve and added data to it. It doesn't take into account the fact that our new cases are still about the same as they were 10 days ago. It expects the tail end of the curve to be more like a freefall and I don't think that's going to happen.

You can look at Spain and Italy on this model and see how they're supposed to be down to 100-200 deaths per day right now, yet they're still around 600. It says they'll be under 100 deaths per day by next week.

Finally, for the US, it predicts we'll have ZERO deaths after June 27th. That would mean we'd have to virtually eliminate all new cases within about a month. Does anyone see that happening?

Not to nitpick but the model looks to ramp down on death rate more gradually than the ramp up. I do agree that a death rate of absolutely zero per day is hard to believe. But at the same time not sure if a death rate of, say, 10 per day after June really changes the story.

[hacker]

Not to nitpick but the model looks to ramp down on death rate more gradually than the ramp up. I do agree that a death rate of absolutely zero per day is hard to believe. But at the same time not sure if a death rate of, say, 10 per day after June really changes the story.

If we're still at 60% (see Spain, Italy) of our peak new cases in a month, then about a thousand per day will still be dying on June 1st. They have us at 100 on June 1st.

But let's look even closer to now. They have us at 1100 deaths on May 1st. I can almost guarantee we'll be at the same level of deaths we are now on May 1st because our new cases are still around 30k per day and it takes a couple weeks to die from this disease.

[msstate7]

If we're still at 60% (see Spain, Italy) of our peak new cases in a month, then about a thousand per day will still be dying on June 1st. They have us at 100 on June 1st.

But let's look even closer to now. They have us at 1100 deaths on May 1st. I can almost guarantee we'll be at the same level of deaths we are now on May 1st because our new cases are still around 30k per day and it takes a couple weeks to die from this disease.

Most the deaths are coming from one region of the country. As that region starts going down, so do the deaths, maybe

[dawgday166]

Most the deaths are coming from one region of the country. As that region starts going down, so do the deaths, maybe

Same with US ... no??

[msstate7]

Same with US ... no??

Yeah, I was referring to US, unclearly

[hacker]

Most the deaths are coming from one region of the country. As that region starts going down, so do the deaths, maybe

Yeah, but the cases in that region (understood you meant NYC area) haven't started going down yet. They've plateaued.

Italy peaked around 3 weeks ago. Still doing about 60% of their peak in new cases and deaths.

[hacker]

You can clearly see how off target that model is for Italy. It projected 192 deaths today. 385 was the model's top end projection. But 602 deaths were actually reported.

It projects 0 deaths for them going forward starting on May 2nd.

But they had 3000 new cases today. Some of those will die after May 2nd. And their cases aren't suddenly going to drop to 0 tomorrow.

[msstate7]

You can clearly see how off target that model is for Italy. It projected 192 deaths today. 385 was the model's top end projection. But 602 deaths were actually reported.

It projects 0 deaths for them going forward starting on May 2nd.

But they had 3000 new cases today. Some of those will die after May 2nd. And their cases aren't suddenly going to drop to 0 tomorrow.

How's it doing in the US and other countries? Italy and Spain are pretty much worst case outcomes.

[hacker]

How's it doing in the US and other countries? Italy and Spain are pretty much worst case outcomes.

It's relatively accurate for us so far, but I think the tail of the curve drops too fast. That's what I'm trying to point out.

I think 60k is too low unfortunately

[hacker]

Mississippi schools closed for the rest of the year.

[Dawgfan77]

NY/NJ. 12,000 deaths just terrible. Rest of the country. 12,000. 48 states and 12,000 deaths. We need to get up in running with the economy. Places that have a high population of infection yes continue shut down. Rest of us it's time to get going

[hacker]

NY/NJ. 12,000 deaths just terrible. Rest of the country. 12,000. 48 states and 12,000 deaths. We need to get up in running with the economy. Places that have a high population of infection yes continue shut down. Rest of us it's time to get going

Then the whole country will look like NY/NJ

[hacker]

[tweet2]1250170016504430595[/tweet2]

NYC just listed ~3800 more "probable" deaths. Probable means it says covid on their death certificate but no test was done.