The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[starkvegasdawg]

I wouldn't be able to tell the difference in my area if I didn't know better.

That's the point I'm trying to make. For those that disagree with this do me a favor next time you're out. Doesn't matter what town you live in. Next time you're going somewhere if you didn't know there was a SIP order due to a horrible disease wreaking havoc, would you be able to tell anything was amiss or would it just look like a typical Wednesday with people going about their normal routines? If there was a true SIP order that had enough teeth behind it to help contain this outbreak, you'd drive into town and it'd look like a Children of the Corn scene wondering where everybody is.

[Dawgfan77]

That's the point I'm trying to make. For those that disagree with this do me a favor next time you're out. Doesn't matter what town you live in. Next time you're going somewhere if you didn't know there was a SIP order due to a horrible disease wreaking havoc, would you be able to tell anything was amiss or would it just look like a typical Wednesday with people going about their normal routines? If there was a true SIP order that had enough teeth behind it to help contain this outbreak, you'd drive into town and it'd look like a Children of the Corn scene wondering where everybody is.

When you drive by a restaurant a movie theater what a hotel and staff. I see a lot of issues

[starkvegasdawg]

Maybe where y'all live but not here. There's a substantial difference.

I know here in Starkville you can't tell a difference.

[Commercecomet24]

I know here in Starkville you can't tell a difference.

You can here. Parking lots empty, traffic down, business laying people off, shuttered for good, reduced staff and hours and it's a fact, and it's not just here. Why do you think businesses are losing money right now? Only one reason, no business!

[BrunswickDawg]

You can here. Parking lots empty, traffic down, business laying people off, shuttered for good, reduced staff and hours and it's a fact, and it's not just here. Why do you think businesses are losing money right now? Only one reason, no business!

It probably depends where you live. We would be in peak tourist season here - it's dead. Most of the hotels have closed. When I have had to go into the office, traffic is noticeably less. There is still activity - but you can tell its maybe running at 1/4 normal right now. I last put gas in my car on March 10th.

[Commercecomet24]

It probably depends where you live. We would be in peak tourist season here - it's dead. Most of the hotels have closed. When I have had to go into the office, traffic is noticeably less. There is still activity - but you can tell its maybe running at 1/4 normal right now. I last put gas in my car on March 10th.

Yes, this is reasonable and that's the last time I put gas in my car too lol! I'm used to traveling and i've been in the office for a month now and my gas bill has gone way down lol! That being said I've lived and run a business in Laurel/Jones County for a long time and know most of the business owners here. Outside of Walmart, Lowes and Sonic most business owners I've talked to are down over 50% and climbing since this thing started. That's not just looking at it and saying "well I can't tell a difference here", it's a fact. That's not sustainable for very long at all. Some have shuttered for good already, and I'm sure the same scenario is playing out all over the country. I don't have the answers but I do know it's a fact if something doesn't give soon the virus won't devastate near as many families as the economic disaster.

[Prediction? Pain.]

It probably depends where you live. We would be in peak tourist season here - it's dead. Most of the hotels have closed. When I have had to go into the office, traffic is noticeably less. There is still activity - but you can tell its maybe running at 1/4 normal right now. I last put gas in my car on March 10th.

We've got a mix in the Chattanooga area. Downtown Chattanooga is relatively sparse for a few reasons. First and foremost, the bedrock of the town's tourism industry, the Tennessee Aquarium (where three of my family members happen to work) has been closed for a month. Other attractions followed the Aquarium's lead shortly afterward, so other notable places that drew people in (the Hunter Art Museum, the Creative Discovery Museum (a kids' science and art center), the zoo, etc.) aren't open, either. Second, the restaurants and bars are all carryout only. And then third, even though most of the offices downtown are considered "essential" under Tennessee's (and Chattanooga's separate) stay-at-home orders, many (like me) are working from home much or all of the time.

At the same time, when I go out to pick up groceries or to the post-office, I see moderate-to-normal traffic at the stores I pass. Granted, small businesses and independent retailers are in a lot worse shape now, even if they're considered "essential" just because people aren't going out for stuff like that anymore even if they're allowed.

The closure of the tourism sector, which as I mentioned directly (and greatly) affects my and my immediate family's incomes, is a tough, tough thing. Even assuming our country adopts and implements an effective test-and-trace system that lets stuff start rolling close-ish to normal, I'm guessing that places like theaters, museums, aquariums, sports and concert venues, and anything else that requires close quarters and crowds are going to be the last to open.

[BrunswickDawg]

I know here in Starkville you can't tell a difference.

So you can't tell that 20,000 students aren't in town? I call BS on that one

[Prediction? Pain.]

A few days back in another thread, I linked to an article from the MIT Technology Review about the "reopening" of the US economy from the perspective of prominent economists. The premise of the article was that choosing between economic viability and human life is a false choice. The two are inextricably intertwined and putting one above the other would lead to ruinous results. Here's the link again if anyone's interested:

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...e-can-do-both/

The gist of the author's argument is that the most prudent path forward is to implement a robust, national test-and-trace system that, coupled with other remedial measures, will allow the health to work and the sick to be immediately isolated.

That aggressive test-and-trace approach is part of what has made Taiwan such a success story so far. If you haven't read up on Taiwan, here's an article from the Journal of the American Medical Association that gives a summary of its efforts and here's a 7-minute news clip about the same thing, both of which are from March.

With a population of over 23,000,000 -- millions of which take the 80-mile trip to and from China regularly and repeatedly -- and a population density that is top ten in the world and would rank 1st among US states, Taiwan to date has only 395 cases of COVID 19 and 6 deaths. They've had between zero and five new cases each day for the past week. For a democracy with a relatively solid, modern economy, that's pretty damn impressive.

But just for a comparison, let's look at some states in the US. New Jersey, which has the largest population density of any state in the US (though it's still lower than Taiwan's) and less than half of Taiwan's total population, has had nearly 69,000 COVID-19 cases and 2,805 deaths. My state of Tennessee has one-tenth the population density of Taiwan and less than a third of Taiwan's population and we've got more than 10 times the cases (5,823) and 20 times the deaths (124). Hell, my county alone has nearly twice as many deaths as the entire country of Taiwan with only 370,000 people and a population density less than half of Taiwan's.

The trace-and-test thing is something that healthcare people are pushing for too, at least in Tennessee. Vandy's Medical Center put out a short piece a week or so ago about the flattening of the curve and the potential dangerous of going back to normal without a much more robust system of testing and tracing in the state.

Another interesting tidbit from the MIT article was about some economists' study of the 1918 flu pandemic's economic consequences. I haven't read the entire study (it's 50 pages long), but here are the two main conclusions from the study and a little more insight from the MIT article:

First, the pandemic leads to a sharp and persistent fall in real economic activity. We find negative effects on manufacturing activity, the stock of durable goods, and bank assets, which suggests that the pandemic depresses economic activity through both supply and demand-side effects. Second, cities that implemented more rapid and forceful non-pharmaceutical health interventions [like business and school closures] do not experience worse downturns. In contrast, evidence on manufacturing activity and bank assets suggests that the economy performed better in areas with more aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions after the pandemic.

Verner [one of the authors of the study] points to the fates of two cities in particular: Cleveland and Philadelphia. Cleveland acted aggressively, closing schools and banning gatherings early in the outbreak and keeping the restrictions in place for far longer. Philadelphia was slower to react and maintained restrictions for about half as long. Not only did far fewer people die in Cleveland (600 per 100,000, compared with 900 per 100,000 in Philadelphia), but its economy fared better and was much stronger in the year after the outbreak. By 1919 job growth was 5% there, while in Philadelphia it was around 2%.

Today's economy is much different -- it's geared more toward services, and far less toward manufacturing than it was 100 years ago. Nevertheless, the cities' stories are suggestive. Verner says that even a conservative interpretation of the data suggests there is "no evidence that interventions are worse for the economy." And most likely they had a significant benefit. "A pandemic is so destructive," he says. "Ultimately any policy to mitigate it is going to be good for the economy."

Sorry for the length of the post. I was encouraged to hear people that have forgotten a crap-ton more than economics than I'll ever know talk about economic and physical health as two sides of the same coin instead of mutually exclusive. Figured some of y'all might, too.

[hacker]

A few days back in another thread, I linked to an article from the MIT Technology Review about the "reopening" of the US economy from the perspective of prominent economists. The premise of the article was that choosing between economic viability and human life is a false choice. The two are inextricably intertwined and putting one above the other would lead to ruinous results. Here's the link again if anyone's interested:

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...e-can-do-both/

The gist of the author's argument is that the most prudent path forward is to implement a robust, national test-and-trace system that, coupled with other remedial measures, will allow the health to work and the sick to be immediately isolated.

That aggressive test-and-trace approach is part of what has made Taiwan such a success story so far. If you haven't read up on Taiwan, here's an article from the Journal of the American Medical Association that gives a summary of its efforts and here's a 7-minute news clip about the same thing, both of which are from March.

With a population of over 23,000,000 -- millions of which take the 80-mile trip to and from China regularly and repeatedly -- and a population density that is top ten in the world and would rank 1st among US states, Taiwan to date has only 395 cases of COVID 19 and 6 deaths. They've had between zero and five new cases each day for the past week. For a democracy with a relatively solid, modern economy, that's pretty damn impressive.

But just for a comparison, let's look at some states in the US. New Jersey, which has the largest population density of any state in the US (though it's still lower than Taiwan's) and less than half of Taiwan's total population, has had nearly 69,000 COVID-19 cases and 2,805 deaths. My state of Tennessee has one-tenth the population density of Taiwan and less than a third of Taiwan's population and we've got more than 10 times the cases (5,823) and 20 times the deaths (124). Hell, my county alone has nearly twice as many deaths as the entire country of Taiwan with only 370,000 people and a population density less than half of Taiwan's.

The trace-and-test thing is something that healthcare people are pushing for too, at least in Tennessee. Vandy's Medical Center put out a short piece a week or so ago about the flattening of the curve and the potential dangerous of going back to normal without a much more robust system of testing and tracing in the state.

Another interesting tidbit from the MIT article was about some economists' study of the 1918 flu pandemic's economic consequences. I haven't read the entire study (it's 50 pages long), but here are the two main conclusions from the study and a little more insight from the MIT article:





Sorry for the length of the post. I was encouraged to hear people that have forgotten a crap-ton more than economics than I'll ever know talk about economic and physical health as two sides of the same coin instead of mutually exclusive. Figured some of y'all might, too.

Post more, I enjoyed the read

edit: You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Prediction? Pain. again.

[confucius say]

I know here in Starkville you can't tell a difference.

Maybe it is a good thing that people are still kind of out. If the goal is to just spread out when people come into contact with the virus (as opposed to stopping completely the spread of the virus), maybe it is helpful that people are gradually coming into contact with it.

[starkvegasdawg]

So you can't tell that 20,000 students aren't in town? I call BS on that one

I drive by college apartments everyday and the parking lots are still 3/4 full. Traffic on 12 is still busy as ever. So it's still at a minimum no different than Christmas break or over the summer. There are still college kids here. Maybe it's just because they're all stuck in their apartment lease and staying because of that. I don't know. But I'm telling you there is barely any perceptible difference in activity in this town now compared to January.

[BrunswickDawg]

I drive by college apartments everyday and the parking lots are still 3/4 full. Traffic on 12 is still busy as ever. So it's still at a minimum no different than Christmas break or over the summer. There are still college kids here. Maybe it's just because they're all stuck in their apartment lease and staying because of that. I don't know. But I'm telling you there is barely any perceptible difference in activity in this town now compared to January.

That's also not what you said earlier. I've lived in Starkville in Summer it and it is a huge difference then the way it is during the middle of the school year. If you had said "it's about like Summer or Christmas Break" then I would have believed it. I'm also going off what my kid has said - she finally decided to come home last weekend.

[starkvegasdawg]

Yes, this is reasonable and that's the last time I put gas in my car too lol! I'm used to traveling and i've been in the office for a month now and my gas bill has gone way down lol! That being said I've lived and run a business in Laurel/Jones County for a long time and know most of the business owners here. Outside of Walmart, Lowes and Sonic most business owners I've talked to are down over 50% and climbing since this thing started. That's not just looking at it and saying "well I can't tell a difference here", it's a fact. That's not sustainable for very long at all. Some have shuttered for good already, and I'm sure the same scenario is playing out all over the country. I don't have the answers but I do know it's a fact if something doesn't give soon the virus won't devastate near as many families as the economic disaster.

And that's why I'm saying if we did one good SIP a month ago that had some teeth for 2-3 weeks we may have been able to get on top of this and start to be returning things to normal now. But we opted for a very limited phased approach not wanting to disrupt the economy and it caused it to drag out for months now and do 100x the damage to the economy as the one massive short term shutdown would have done.

[Commercecomet24]

And that's why I'm saying if we did one good SIP a month ago that had some teeth for 2-3 weeks we may have been able to get on top of this and start to be returning things to normal now. But we opted for a very limited phased approach not wanting to disrupt the economy and it caused it to drag out for months now and do 100x the damage to the economy as the one massive short term shutdown would have done.

We are just gonna have agree to disagree on this.

[KB21]

And that's why I'm saying if we did one good SIP a month ago that had some teeth for 2-3 weeks we may have been able to get on top of this and start to be returning things to normal now. But we opted for a very limited phased approach not wanting to disrupt the economy and it caused it to drag out for months now and do 100x the damage to the economy as the one massive short term shutdown would have done.

I honestly do not believe that would have made that much of a difference. This virus has been here longer than most believe. I'm convinced I was seeing people with this virus back in January, and perhaps even some in December. There was something that people were coming in for that was influenza like that kept testing negative for influenza. These people were taking two to three weeks to get better. I feel it is very likely that you could double the amount of positive cases that we have right now if you took into account how many have this that are asymptomatic. Because of this, I feel like we are close if not past the point of herd immunity.

[Todd4State]

I honestly do not believe that would have made that much of a difference. This virus has been here longer than most believe. I'm convinced I was seeing people with this virus back in January, and perhaps even some in December. There was something that people were coming in for that was influenza like that kept testing negative for influenza. These people were taking two to three weeks to get better. I feel it is very likely that you could double the amount of positive cases that we have right now if you took into account how many have this that are asymptomatic. Because of this, I feel like we are close if not past the point of herd immunity.

That's what I'm seeing too. I agree 100%. I don't know if we have immunity or not but we're probably closer than a lot to people realize.

Elective orthopedic surgeries were declared illegal where I live so my hospital transferred me right to the front lines. Kind of makes me like a pirate. LOL.

[deadheaddawg]

And that's why I'm saying if we did one good SIP a month ago that had some teeth for 2-3 weeks we may have been able to get on top of this and start to be returning things to normal now. But we opted for a very limited phased approach not wanting to disrupt the economy and it caused it to drag out for months now and do 100x the damage to the economy as the one massive short term shutdown would have done.

yep.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Starkvegasdog, you are so correct. Had we, as a nation jumped on this six weeks earlier, we would be coming out the other side this month. But.......
Buy the ticket, take the ride
HST

[starkvegasdawg]

That's also not what you said earlier. I've lived in Starkville in Summer it and it is a huge difference then the way it is during the middle of the school year. If you had said "it's about like Summer or Christmas Break" then I would have believed it. I'm also going off what my kid has said - she finally decided to come home last weekend.

Thing is a lot of kids don't go home now. Summer is barely a difference in kids based due to all the summer school. I've lived here over 10 years. Back when I first moved here summer was like a ghost town with the kids gone, but the last 4-5 that dramatically changed. Now it's not much difference.