The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[SheltonChoked]

I would imagine that by the time this is over with both flu and corona will have taken close to the same numbers which align with what Fauci is saying. Approx. 100,000 individuals

Without social distancing and quarantine that number would be much higher due to the fact that there is no vaccine or herd immunity. But overall cases would be much higher due to the fact that many more indivuduals would get this virus than normally get the flu. Imagine the seasonal flu without a vaccine. It doesn't make the seasonal flu MORE dangerous what it does is allow the flu to get to more people. More people = higher death toll (not higher death rate). The majority of those 100,000 individuals that die from the flu every year die from...guess what...pneumonia. Both the seasonal flu and corona virus are very dangerous diseases. The advantage that corona has over the flu is that it can get into more of the population due to lack of herd/vaccine immunity.

Is herd immunity without a vaccine, possible? Wouldn't that be /have been the case for Measles, mumps, chickenpox, smallpox, diphtheria, pertussis, typhoid, Yellow Fever, Malaria, Black Death, Plague etc?

[BrunswickDawg]

GA governor just yesterday said he learned Tuesday that the virus can be spread prior to someone demonstrating symptoms.....like no 17n shit man. That has been established 17n fact by even the cdc since the first God damn week of February. What the hell man.

Brian Kemp is the dumbest Georgia Governor in modern history - and it ain't just this issue. Nathan Deal was a very good governor, and very pragmatic. I'd take him back in a heartbeat.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Anyone feel like fact checking this?



Saw it on Facebook, so you know...

I'll take a half-stab at it by looking just at one sliver of one stat -- suicide.

In 2018, 48,344 people died by suicide in the United States. It was the 10th leading cause of death here. I don't have a month-by-month breakdown to see how the rate shifts around holidays and seasons, but the average monthly figure would be 4,028.7. According to the WHO's stats, we have one of the highest (if not the highest) suicide rate among "wealthy" industrialized nations. (We rank No. 34 globally, which puts us just inside the top 25%.)

Suicide, like many -- or potentially all -- of the other categories of death listed on that infographic, is different than COVID-19 in that it does not have a "beginning." In other words, each year, the things that cause suicide are, relatively speaking, as prevalent as they were the year before. Again, relatively speaking. Disasters, economic decline, generational shifts, etc. all affect suicide rates. But the phenomenon of suicide does not originate or "begin" each year on January 1.

COVID-19, of course, is different. To our knowledge, it had never existed in a human being until December 2019. In the United States, the first known case of COVID-19 was on Jan. 21, 2020, and the first death occurred on Feb. 29, 2020. And, unlike suicide, its effect upon the population has increased exponentially every day since then.

If we start our calculation at February 29, 2020, then, COVID-19 in the United States has a death rate so far of roughly 4,510 per month.

Now, the things that make COVID-19 different from suicide also make this "per X amount of time" comparison difficult. In addition to exponential growth, COVID-19 carries with it tons of other variables including widespread (or soon-to-be-widespread, depending upon what state, county, and city you live in) social countermeasures, unknown effects of seasonality, post-infection health care (there's not really any after-the-fact health care options for suicide), and the eventual "peak" phenomenon.

But bottom line, in approximately one month since the first death here, it's monthly death toll would rank it in the top ten causes of death in the United States. That's pretty stout.

ETA: For what it's worth, here in Hamilton County, TN (where Chattanooga is), we had our first COVID-19 diagnosis on March 13, which was 20 days ago. We now have 63 confirmed cases and 6 deaths in the county. The last death (or maybe it was the 5th) was a child under the age of five. It's tough stuff, y'all.

[msstate7]

I'll take a half-stab at it by looking just at one sliver of one stat -- suicide.

In 2018, 48,344 people died by suicide in the United States. It was the 10th leading cause of death here. I don't have a month-by-month breakdown to see how the rate shifts around holidays and seasons, but the average monthly figure would be 4,028.7. According to the WHO's stats, we have one of the highest (if not the highest) suicide rate among "wealthy" industrialized nations. (We rank No. 34 globally, which puts us just inside the top 25%.)

Suicide, like many -- or potentially all -- of the other categories of death listed on that infographic, is different than COVID-19 in that it does not have a "beginning." In other words, each year, the things that cause suicide are, relatively speaking, as prevalent as they were the year before. Again, relatively speaking. Disasters, economic decline, generational shifts, etc. all affect suicide rates. But the phenomenon of suicide does not originate or "begin" each year on January 1.

COVID-19, of course, is different. To our knowledge, it had never existed in a human being until December 2019. In the United States, the first known case of COVID-19 was on Jan. 21, 2020, and the first death occurred on Feb. 29, 2020. And, unlike suicide, its effect upon the population has increased exponentially every day since then.

If we start our calculation at February 29, 2020, then, COVID-19 in the United States has a death rate so far of roughly 4,510 per month.

Now, the things that make COVID-19 different from suicide also make this "per X amount of time" comparison difficult. In addition to exponential growth, COVID-19 carries with it tons of other variables including widespread (or soon-to-be-widespread, depending upon what state, county, and city you live in) social countermeasures, unknown effects of seasonality, post-infection health care (there's not really any after-the-fact health care options for suicide), and the eventual "peak" phenomenon.

But bottom line, in approximately one month since the first death here, it's monthly death toll would rank it in the top ten causes of death in the United States. That's pretty stout.

Good work.

It'll be interesting (to me anyway) if the deaths keep going for over a couple months. Without any data, I'm figuring that the virus will take a big toll on the most vulnerable in its early stages, which sorta runs up deaths totals to start with that won't sustain.

[Johnson85]

Is herd immunity without a vaccine, possible? Wouldn't that be /have been the case for Measles, mumps, chickenpox, smallpox, diphtheria, pertussis, typhoid, Yellow Fever, Malaria, Black Death, Plague etc?

Can't remember where I read it, but read something the other day saying it depends on the Ro and whether repeat infections are possible. For measles (I think; may have been mumps or chikcen pox), the guy calculated herd immunity would requires something like 90-95% of the population to have been infected and get immunity b/c the Ro was so high. With what they think the Ro is for COVID, he calculated that something like 70% of the population would have to get it.

[msstate7]

Spain looks poised to take over 2nd place in total cases (already ahead of italy in cases per million), and they're catching up to Italy big time in deaths per million.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Can't remember where I read it, but read something the other day saying it depends on the Ro and whether repeat infections are possible. For measles (I think; may have been mumps or chikcen pox), the guy calculated herd immunity would requires something like 90-95% of the population to have been infected and get immunity b/c the Ro was so high. With what they think the Ro is for COVID, he calculated that something like 70% of the population would have to get it.

But if immunity wears off like another corona virus the common cold, after a year or so, people could catch it again. We just dont know enough yet.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Spain looks poised to take over 2nd place in total cases (already ahead of italy in cases per million), and they're catching up to Italy big time in deaths per million.

Have you ever been to Spain or Italy? The women there are drop dead hot. I would gladly take a shot at Corona for a chance at a fine italian lady. Thats the issue. Also, large portions of every major town are high density, close quarters.

[Cooterpoot]

It's important to note that you are starting to hear health care officials hedge their assumptions when saying big numbers here recently. Again, it's still a very dangerous virus. Think about this. If the seasonal flue kills roughly 60,000 in the US every year and then you drop this on top of the US you are doubling or tripling deaths related to viruses/flus in one year. That is a lot of AVOIDABLE deaths. We need to maintain the social distancing, quarnatine, and shelter in place methods until AT LEAST the end of April.

And COVID can be carried at the same time as the flu. So you could test positive for flu and miss the COVID if the flu test was positive.

[Dawgology]

But if immunity wears off like another corona virus the common cold, after a year or so, people could catch it again. We just dont know enough yet.

Most research has indicated little mutation for the amount of individuals it has passed through. It will probably end up much like the flu where it slowly develops a second strain and vaccine may have to be adjusted each season. With that said an article I read in Nature the other day interviewed several different research groups that suggested they are developing a one time vaccine much like the MMR.

[revdrdawg]

Well wouldn't the others rise also?

The Corona deaths have doubled in one week since this chart. The others would have risen about 2% (give or take for seasonal differences) during the same time. As others have noted, who knows how many Chinese deaths were not reported. Also, if you started the recording of deaths on Feb 1 or March 1, the ratio of Corona deaths to the others would be much higher.

[Liverpooldawg]

Can't remember where I read it, but read something the other day saying it depends on the Ro and whether repeat infections are possible. For measles (I think; may have been mumps or chikcen pox), the guy calculated herd immunity would requires something like 90-95% of the population to have been infected and get immunity b/c the Ro was so high. With what they think the Ro is for COVID, he calculated that something like 70% of the population would have to get it.

It depends on the disease and whether you are permanently immune to it once you have it. Remember mumps and measles used to be referred to as childhood diseases. Virtually everyone got them in childhood.

[yjnkdawg]

Tate Reeves just posted on Facebook -

Today is the first day of our shelter-in-place order. We will be addressing the state and taking questions on it at 3:30 PM. You can watch here on Facebook Live.

[Cooterpoot]

Shelter in place is just to make it "official". Nothing is really changing with it except the police will get involved if you're blatantly disobeying the guidelines. Plus there's a curfew.

[yjnkdawg]

Shelter in place is just to make it "official". Nothing is really changing with it except the police will get involved if you're blatantly disobeying the guidelines. Plus there's a curfew.

Yep I know but it made some people freak out at the grocery stores again. Nothing unusual on the freaking out. Uncertainty and panic is not a good thing.

[RocketDawg]

Brian Kemp is the dumbest Georgia Governor in modern history - and it ain't just this issue. Nathan Deal was a very good governor, and very pragmatic. I'd take him back in a heartbeat.

Makes you wonder where Kemp has been the past few weeks. Even 6 year olds know the methods of coronavirus transfer.

[RocketDawg]

Tate Reeves just posted on Facebook -

Today is the first day of our shelter-in-place order. We will be addressing the state and taking questions on it at 3:30 PM. You can watch here on Facebook Live.

Alabama's "Stay-at-Home" order starts tomorrow at 5 p.m. I don't know how that differs from shelter in place.

Drove by a Dirt Cheap store today and it was open and the sign says they will remain open. What makes them "essential"? I've never been in one of their stores.

[hacker]

Alabama's "Stay-at-Home" order starts tomorrow at 5 p.m. I don't know how that differs from shelter in place.

Drove by a Dirt Cheap store today and it was open and the sign says they will remain open. What makes them "essential"? I've never been in one of their stores.

Basically, a bunch of companies / associations lobbied to be considered essential. No actual reason other than $

[starkvegasdawg]

Basically, a bunch of companies / associations lobbied to be considered essential. No actual reason other than $

I wish I could believe the reason was more noble than this. But I can't.

[Mjoelner34]

Basically, a bunch of companies / associations lobbied to be considered essential. No actual reason other than $

BINGO!