The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[confucius say]

Isn't Australia in their winter season? I wonder if that has something to do with the spread there, since they can limit travel rather easily and reduce exposures.

I thought I had read where the optimal temperature for spread was something like 11 degrees Celsius (or around 50 degrees Fahrenheit). I get Johnson85's take on AC when temps are high, but I'm still concerned about when flu season hits - how are we going to tell the difference between the two?



10 days ago - you were saying "what about deaths"; now that deaths are peaking - the narrative is about cases dropping. I think its been proven in this thread that case numbers don't matter. I think we're too far gone to contain it anyway. It appears that healthcare has been able to manage the load in the most recent "hot spots", but as I just stated - Fall concerns me greatly when temps. start to lower.



This is the percentage that I remember the last time the topic was raised.

Please show where I said "what about deaths" 10 days ago. I haven't talked about deaths in a month since I pointed out cases rose astronomically while deaths have not, thankfully. Deaths have risen though, and will for another two weeks roughly.
Case numbers matter bc they shed light on herd immunity potential. Fla has reached 20% and it's cases have fallen 12%. We should be there in less than a month.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Our total confirmed cases fell to around 1150 today with 52 deaths. When we got into this mess, I felt confident that cases would drop significantly during the summer months, but obviously that did not occur. Really difficult to understand.

[Johnson85]

Isn't Australia in their winter season? I wonder if that has something to do with the spread there, since they can limit travel rather easily and reduce exposures.

I thought I had read where the optimal temperature for spread was something like 11 degrees Celsius (or around 50 degrees Fahrenheit). I get Johnson85's take on AC when temps are high, but I'm still concerned about when flu season hits - how are we going to tell the difference between the two?

It's unclear how much of cold and flu season is due to the temperature/humidity being more conducive to the the flu and cold viruses spreading versus how much is due to human behavior changes in response to the temperature (i.e., spending more time indoors, in close proximity to other people, with recirculated air, and with weaker immune systems). COVID spread very well in New York in cooler temperatures, so I think we can expect it will be tough in cold and flu season. It seems obvious that AC usage has a lot to do with COVID virus spread in the northern hemisphere at the moment so places getting hit hard now will presumably see some relief when they get to milder weather in the fall.

But I think we're going to see it be pretty tough in cold and flu season except maybe in areas like New York that have really been hit hard to the point a lot of people are not potential carriers. And I think we're unfortunately going to find out there is no free lunch, and the places that aren't being hit right now are going to get hit harder when cold and flu season gets here. I'm optimistic that the southeast is going to end up with better numbers overall b/c they have more spread in warm months and won't have a huge susceptible population in the cold and flu season. That may be wishful thinking though.

10 days ago - you were saying "what about deaths"; now that deaths are peaking - the narrative is about cases dropping. I think its been proven in this thread that case numbers don't matter. I think we're too far gone to contain it anyway. It appears that healthcare has been able to manage the load in the most recent "hot spots", but as I just stated - Fall concerns me greatly when temps. start to lower.



This is the percentage that I remember the last time the topic was raised.

[BrunswickDawg]

About that idea that kids can't catch it......

[Dolphus Raymond]

Brunswick, that Tweet is disheartening. Damn.

[msstate7]

About that idea that kids can't catch it......

I don't think anyone has said kids can't catch it. I thought it was just kids weren't affected severely by it. I also thought it was kids to adults transmission is low. I could be misremembering this though. I'm really interested in the symptoms these kids have, and also how long and severe it affects them. This should become a huge study for school reopenings.

[confucius say]

Kids can def get it. I know a couple who have gotten it. All are fine though.
Georgia has had 15k kids under 18 test positive. 1 death.
MS has 6k confirmed cases of kids under 18. 0 deaths and 56 hospitalizations.

Also, that outbreak Brunswick cited also supports the growing theory that these super spreader events are aerosol spread, not droplet spread.

[BrunswickDawg]

Kids can def get it. I know a couple who have gotten it. All are fine though.
Georgia has had 15k kids under 18 test positive. 1 death.
MS has 6k confirmed cases of kids under 18. 0 deaths and 56 hospitalizations.

Also, that outbreak Brunswick cited also supports the growing theory that these super spreader events are aerosol spread, not droplet spread.

It would also follow the idea that kids are super spreaders themselves - so many are asymptomatic, and not careful about masks or distancing when left to their own devices. So, it puts teachers, admin, parents and relatives at a greater risk.

[confucius say]

It would also follow the idea that kids are super spreaders themselves - so many are asymptomatic, and not careful about masks or distancing when left to their own devices. So, it puts teachers, admin, parents and relatives at a greater risk.

Maybe. But the data I've seen so far cuts against that. My guess is it was spread by a staffer over 15.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Maybe. But the data I've seen so far cuts against that. My guess is it was spread by a staffer over 15.

What does your data say for the long-term lung damage of people that have contracted it (both kids and adults)?

[msstate7]

What does your data say for the long-term lung damage of people that have contracted it (both kids and adults)?

I've read about "long term" effects. I'm not saying they aren't real or dangerous, but I do wonder how you know long term effects of something we haven't been dealing with for even a year yet. I'm not trying to discredit you... I'm genuinely interested.

[Johnson85]

It would also follow the idea that kids are super spreaders themselves - so many are asymptomatic, and not careful about masks or distancing when left to their own devices. So, it puts teachers, admin, parents and relatives at a greater risk.

That's possible. It's also possible that the vast majority of the spreading was done by counselors.

I'm not sure what this camp was like, but the camp I went to growing up would have been very different than school. I think it was probably 15 of us sleeping in a cabin along with two teenage counselors? Not sure how that compares to having say 25 students in a room during the day. Wouldn't think it would be that different.

Doesn't really matter though. Just like retail workers, there are jobs that are at greater risk, and people are going to have to decide if they are willing to take the risk to do their job or not.

[confucius say]

What does your data say for the long-term lung damage of people that have contracted it (both kids and adults)?

Everything I've read says it's too early to know anything like that definitively.

[Dawgology]

As a friend of mine who is a teacher stated. We don’t know how children spread and react to the virus because they called schools off at the very beginning of this. We haven’t had school during the Covid pandemic yet so there is really no way to know.

[hacker]

[tweet2]1289331306669543424[/tweet2]

[confucius say]

The good news is those numbers were driven by Texas, fla, cal, and Arizona. All have seen sharp drops in daily case average now.

And according to Alex berenson, Az hospitalizations are down 35% since July 13, Texas down 15% the last 8 days, fla down 14% the last 10 days, and CA down 8% the last 10 days.

[Gutter Cobreh]

I've read about "long term" effects. I'm not saying they aren't real or dangerous, but I do wonder how you know long term effects of something we haven't been dealing with for even a year yet. I'm not trying to discredit you... I'm genuinely interested.

Everything I've read says it's too early to know anything like that definitively.

There are already reports that lung and heart scarring have been found. I think this thing has mutated, so I would say it would depend on the strain you get if infected - but it's worrisome. We talk about transmission from kids like we have that answer, but the reality is there are a lot of questions we're dismissing because case #s and/or deaths are decreasing. I realize that I'm "moving the goalposts", but Brunswick's post hits home.

Lastly, I worry about those parents who are anti-vaccine and whose kids didn't get an MMR shot. What I've seen is that kids aren't as susceptible because the MMR actually helps block the virus in their systems.

[hacker]

The good news is those numbers were driven by Texas, fla, cal, and Arizona. All have seen sharp drops in daily case average now.

And according to Alex berenson, Az hospitalizations are down 35% since July 13, Texas down 15% the last 8 days, fla down 14% the last 10 days, and CA down 8% the last 10 days.

I really only wanted to share the Mississippi tweet. We're close to the highest in the country in cases per capita over the last week.

[BrunswickDawg]

There are already reports that lung and heart scarring have been found. I think this thing has mutated, so I would say it would depend on the strain you get if infected - but it's worrisome. We talk about transmission from kids like we have that answer, but the reality is there are a lot of questions we're dismissing because case #s and/or deaths are decreasing. I realize that I'm "moving the goalposts", but Brunswick's post hits home.

Lastly, I worry about those parents who are anti-vaccine and whose kids didn't get an MMR shot. What I've seen is that kids aren't as susceptible because the MMR actually helps block the virus in their systems.

Well, it's hitting a little to close to home for me. After I posted, the AJC released the name of the camp. One of my UGA guys is on the board of the camp and his son was a counselor trainee at the camp. Son brought it home. My friend got COVID again after having had it in March - luckily mild cases. Said it hit him like a Mack truck, but only lasted a couple of days other then shortness of breath that has lasted weeks. Some how his wife and daughter have dodged both times.

[confucius say]

I really only wanted to share the Mississippi tweet. We're close to the highest in the country in cases per capita over the last week.

Yea it sucks.
Bout to swing though. Hang in there!