The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[Dawgology]

You can find a study that says pretty much anything, but what you should be looking for is scientific consensus. Most studies have herd immunity at 60% or greater.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...herd-immunity/

Herd immunity can be estimated from the R0 value with this formula: 1 - (1 / R0). For example, for herd immunity to be reached at 20%, this is the equation: 1 - (1/1.25) = 0.2. The R0 of the virus would have to be 1.25, which is lower than the flu. The R0 of the flu is ~1.6 (which means ~40% herd immunity).

And I think we all know that this virus is more contagious than the flu.

The R0 of the flu is that low due to a vaccine being available. R0 value fluctuates drastically per region with any new virus. If we didn't haven't a vaccine for the flu it would kill far more people than Covid is currently.

[Dawgology]

We were informed today that the USA death toll for covid-19 is higher right now from March-July than the Spanish flu pandemic during the same months in 1918. Sept -Nov the 1918 Flu mutated and went on its rampage especially the month of October. Not saying this will happen here but it will be interesting to watch what the next few months bring. Safe to all and hail state!

Well...there were 100 million people living in America in 1918. Now we have 330 million so, densly populated cities, and fast transportation connecting it all...that makes sense.

[hacker]

The R0 of the flu is that low due to a vaccine being available. R0 value fluctuates drastically per region with any new virus. If we didn't haven't a vaccine for the flu it would kill far more people than Covid is currently.

The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed 75k January - July. That predates vaccines and was the worst flu in US history.

[Cooterpoot]

The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed 75k January - July. Just so we're clear, that predates vaccines and was the worst flu in US history.

It also killed like 700,000 in that year.

[hacker]

Well...there were 100 million people living in America in 1918. Now we have 330 million so, densly populated cities, and fast transportation connecting it all...that makes sense.

We have also had a shitload of advances in medicine since 1918. Ventilators for one. How many people would be dead from covid if we had the same medical care as 1918?

[hacker]

It also killed like 700,000 in that year.

700k from 1918-1920

[Dawgology]

The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed 75k January - July. That predates vaccines and was the worst flu in US history.

I thought we were talking R0 values of the current flu vs Covid not the Spanish Flu.

Either way, R0 values are fluid and can change from day to day, region to region, etc.

[FISHDAWG]

This lousy thread has pushed my blocked list to capacity

[msstate7]

We have also had a shitload of advances in medicine since 1918. Ventilators for one. How many people would be dead from covid if we had the same medical care as 1918?

Yep, and a whole heck of a lot of the elderly that died to covid19 would've been dead already in 1918

[Dawgology]

We have also had a shitload of advances in medicine since 1918. Ventilators for one. How many people would be dead from covid if we had the same medical care as 1918?

No way to know really but I would say probably about the same because all I've heard from media outlets from day 1 is that nothing is really effective in treating Covid and ventilators are basically useless beyond prolonging suffering. So...they had masks in 1918.

This is literally what the doctors in Tennessee were arguing last week when they lobbied the governor to enact statewide mandates regarding Covid safety. So if nothing is effective in treating Covid and no one understands it and it's basically a death sentence (as many want us to believe) then modern medicine doesn't matter....right?

[dawgday166]

We have also had a shitload of advances in medicine since 1918. Ventilators for one. How many people would be dead from covid if we had the same medical care as 1918?

Ventilators would have still been ineffective then. Cytokine storm is what killed people and vast majority in their 20s and early 30s. They died like 2 or 3 days after developing symptoms due to Cytokine storm. Folks that died would change color to blue or black from such a quick depletion of oxygen.

700k from 1918-1920

That's the very conservative estimate.

Yep, and a whole heck of a lot of the elderly that died to covid19 would've been dead already in 1918

Elderly actually survived it much better due to immune systems not being so responsive to flu's invasion into the body. The vast majority of folks that died were in 20s and 30s.

Read The Great Influenza. That flu is much worse than this one. Survival rate for folks in 20s and 30s was almost nonexistent.

[Dolphus Raymond]

I concur with dawgday; The Great Influenza is an excellent and informative book.

[Cooterpoot]

Yep, and a whole heck of a lot of the elderly that died to covid19 would've been dead already in 1918

I think it would be less deadly for them because they wouldn't be sitting ducks in a nursing home and the nation was far more rural. Alzheimer's also wasn't as big.

[hacker]

That's the very conservative estimate.

That estimate is based on excess deaths. There were 150,000 excess deaths from March - June 13th this year.

But like you said, there's a huge difference in the age group that is dying.

Getting back to the point of all this, I really don't think that "way more people would die from the flu" if we had no flu vaccine. Excess deaths could be > 300k by the end of this year. Using the worst flu in our history as a benchmark, covid is still outpacing it.

[Cooterpoot]

700k from 1918-1920

It was well over 600,000 from 1918-1919 and it didn't start really until late Feb. in 1918. From Sept-Dec it wiped out everyone. Then slowed back down.

[hacker]

It was well over 600,000 from 1918-1919 and it didn't start really until late Feb. in 1918. From Sept-Dec it wiped out everyone. Then slowed back down.

Covid didn't really start until late Feb in 2020. Hopefully history won't repeat itself this fall. Covid + the flu season could be bad.

[Cooterpoot]

Covid didn't really start until late Feb in 2020. Hopefully history won't repeat itself this fall. Covid + the flu season could be bad.

That flu/Covid combo will lock down hospitals, even if it's not bad. You're effectively doubling everything even if it's an average flu season.

[Dawgology]

That flu/Covid combo will lock down hospitals, even if it's not bad. You're effectively doubling everything even if it's an average flu season.

This exactly. As I stated previously: the flu season taxes hospital capacity every year. It is not uncommon for hospitals to divert critical care and emergency patients to other hospitals due to over-capacity issues during a REGULAR flu season.

This is why I don't understand moving fall sports back further into the flu season. It's dumb. They should actually be starting sooner rather than later.

[Liverpooldawg]

We have also had a shitload of advances in medicine since 1918. Ventilators for one. How many people would be dead from covid if we had the same medical care as 1918?

Nearly everyone who has been hospitalized. Certainly almost everyone who had to have oxygen would be.

[Liverpooldawg]

Ventilators would have still been ineffective then. Cytokine storm is what killed people and vast majority in their 20s and early 30s. They died like 2 or 3 days after developing symptoms due to Cytokine storm. Folks that died would change color to blue or black from such a quick depletion of oxygen.



That's the very conservative estimate.



Elderly actually survived it much better due to immune systems not being so responsive to flu's invasion into the body. The vast majority of folks that died were in 20s and 30s.

Read The Great Influenza. That flu is much worse than this one. Survival rate for folks in 20s and 30s was almost nonexistent.

Dude that last sentence is total bs. You just made that up. It infected nearly every soldier on the Western Front. It went through military training camps here like wildfire. We still fought the war.