The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[confucius say]

With those two you get real sick, real quick. There is little to no asymptomatic transmission. That makes it relatively easy to detect, trace, and isolate once you know what to look for.

That seems to be a reason why those two only infected a lower number of people, but I'm not sure it speaks to why they are not still around today. My understanding is they are not still around today because they did not mutate, or only did so minimally and not enough to overcome immunity. For example, even if the whole world gets covid, we will build immunity to it and it will go away unless it mutates. I'm no expert, this is just my understanding from what I've read, that the key to it staying forever will be whether or not it mutates. History suggests there will be a second wave, but it will die out.

From what I have read, coronaviruses in the past have seen a second wave. Sars 1 in 2002 and Mers in 2012 were the two most recent, and both had second waves. Both were far more deadly than COVID 19, but not near as transmissible. But both largely completely disappeared after that second wave without a vaccine, and 12-18 months after showing up. There is no vaccine for sars or mers, or for any coronavirus.

Compare that to swine flu in 2009, which was not a coronavirus but an h1n1 virus akin to the 1918 Spanish flu. There was a vaccine developed and administered to Americans for the swine flu, but it largely went away on its on due to not mutating like the virus we commonly refer to as the flu.

So, history of coronaviruses tells us that there probably will be a second wave, not sure how strong, but this virus will run its course and go away without a vaccine, likely 12-18 months since it started. Interestingly, that 12-18 month period is the same time we've been told to expect a vaccine to be ready.

[Liverpooldawg]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...n-us-by-august

This is when everybody started saying it was no big deal

Yep, and we hit 100k today. Most stuff I've seen is another 100k by September.

[Liverpooldawg]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime...cid=spartandhp

[Liverpooldawg]

That seems to be a reason why those two only infected a lower number of people, but I'm not sure it speaks to why they are not still around today. My understanding is they are not still around today because they did not mutate, or only did so minimally and not enough to overcome immunity. For example, even if the whole world gets covid, we will build immunity to it and it will go away unless it mutates. I'm no expert, this is just my understanding from what I've read, that the key to it staying forever will be whether or not it mutates. History suggests there will be a second wave, but it will die out.

From what I have read, coronaviruses in the past have seen a second wave. Sars 1 in 2002 and Mers in 2012 were the two most recent, and both had second waves. Both were far more deadly than COVID 19, but not near as transmissible. But both largely completely disappeared after that second wave without a vaccine, and 12-18 months after showing up. There is no vaccine for sars or mers, or for any coronavirus.

Compare that to swine flu in 2009, which was not a coronavirus but an h1n1 virus akin to the 1918 Spanish flu. There was a vaccine developed and administered to Americans for the swine flu, but it largely went away on its on due to not mutating like the virus we commonly refer to as the flu.

So, history of coronaviruses tells us that there probably will be a second wave, not sure how strong, but this virus will run its course and go away without a vaccine, likely 12-18 months since it started. Interestingly, that 12-18 month period is the same time we've been told to expect a vaccine to be ready.

It's just easier to isolate something like that. This one probably won't go away on it's on given the early indications. It's mutating already. H1N1 is still out there. I think it's still in most vaccines.

[Dawg2003]

The regular old flu shot protects you against H1N1.

[confucius say]

The regular old flu shot protects you against H1N1.

I guess that makes sense because it is a flu virus, as opposed to a coronavirus.

[confucius say]

It's just easier to isolate something like that. This one probably won't go away on it's on given the early indications. It's mutating already. H1N1 is still out there. I think it's still in most vaccines.

Can you post the mutation links? I've only found one article about it and it said that the early results show minimal mutation that would probably not be enough to overcome the body's immunity to covid.

[dantheman4248]

https://www.businessinsider.com/fema...5-masks-2020-4

Good news btw. Public outrage caught this blatant attempt at stealing American tax dollars.

[Dawgology]

That seems to be a reason why those two only infected a lower number of people, but I'm not sure it speaks to why they are not still around today. My understanding is they are not still around today because they did not mutate, or only did so minimally and not enough to overcome immunity. For example, even if the whole world gets covid, we will build immunity to it and it will go away unless it mutates. I'm no expert, this is just my understanding from what I've read, that the key to it staying forever will be whether or not it mutates. History suggests there will be a second wave, but it will die out.

From what I have read, coronaviruses in the past have seen a second wave. Sars 1 in 2002 and Mers in 2012 were the two most recent, and both had second waves. Both were far more deadly than COVID 19, but not near as transmissible. But both largely completely disappeared after that second wave without a vaccine, and 12-18 months after showing up. There is no vaccine for sars or mers, or for any coronavirus.

Compare that to swine flu in 2009, which was not a coronavirus but an h1n1 virus akin to the 1918 Spanish flu. There was a vaccine developed and administered to Americans for the swine flu, but it largely went away on its on due to not mutating like the virus we commonly refer to as the flu.

So, history of coronaviruses tells us that there probably will be a second wave, not sure how strong, but this virus will run its course and go away without a vaccine, likely 12-18 months since it started. Interestingly, that 12-18 month period is the same time we've been told to expect a vaccine to be ready.

Viruses that quickly kill or debilitate their host rarely mutate much. In order to mutate a virus has to be transmitted a lot. If the virus is so strong that it kills or debilitates it's host quickly then the virus reduces it's chances to be transmitted so you see a higher mortality rate with a lower transmission rate. If something like MERS or SARS-1 ever mutated to where it had a 2-week, asymptomatic gestation period but was still transmittable during that time period the deaths would be in the 10's of millions.

[StateDawg44]

https://www.businessinsider.com/fema...5-masks-2020-4

Good news btw. Public outrage caught this blatant attempt at stealing American tax dollars.

Again with the political. The thread has been tolerable without you bringing this in here.

[confucius say]

Viruses that quickly kill or debilitate their host rarely mutate much. In order to mutate a virus has to be transmitted a lot. If the virus is so strong that it kills or debilitates it's host quickly then the virus reduces it's chances to be transmitted so you see a higher mortality rate with a lower transmission rate. If something like MERS or SARS-1 ever mutated to where it had a 2-week, asymptomatic gestation period but was still transmittable during that time period the deaths would be in the 10's of millions.

Do you make anything of the fact that past coronaviruses have went away on their own without a vaccine? Just wondering if that provides hope that covid will do the same

[hacker]

Do you make anything of the fact that past coronaviruses have went away on their own without a vaccine? Just wondering if that provides hope that covid will do the same

They went away due to human containment efforts. Not because they got bored and decided to not spread anymore.

[confucius say]

They went away due to human containment efforts. Not because they got bored and decided to not spread anymore.

If that's true (and the articles I've read don't suggest that is the reason they went away), why did they not come back every year like influenza viruses are prone to do? Lack of mutation?

[Liverpooldawg]

Can you post the mutation links? I've only found one article about it and it said that the early results show minimal mutation that would probably not be enough to overcome the body's immunity to covid.

I've seen several things but don't have a specific link off the top of my head. It's mutated slightly several times already. This is in an extremely short time frame. Nothing major yet that they know off but we better be aware that it's happening. Some of them have been in the spike proteins that many of the potential vaccines are targeting.

[Liverpooldawg]

If that's true (and the articles I've read don't suggest that is the reason they went away), why did they not come back every year like influenza viruses are prone to do? Lack of mutation?

If it's truly contained and isolated then there is no virus left to come back. Flu doesn't disappear in the summer. There is always some around, just not much.

[hacker]

If that's true (and the articles I've read don't suggest that is the reason they went away), why did they not come back every year like influenza viruses are prone to do? Lack of mutation?

Read this, it's a really good article comparing and contrasting SARS and COVID. It goes into detail how SARS was eradicated.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...129-8/fulltext

[hacker]

If it's truly contained and isolated then there is no virus left to come back. Flu doesn't disappear in the summer. There is always some around, just not much.

This. If the virus doesn't have a human host, how would it come back (aside from jumping species again)?

[confucius say]

This. If the virus doesn't have a human host, how would it come back (aside from jumping species again)?

So in theory if we contact traced well enough (which I'm not sure is possible with sars, flu, or covid) with the flu and isolated every infected host then the flu would be gone forever? If yes, you are saying we were able to do that with sars and mers but not the flu?

[confucius say]

Read this, it's a really good article comparing and contrasting SARS and COVID. It goes into detail how SARS was eradicated.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...129-8/fulltext

Thanks. Will read later

[DeltaChicagoDog]

Science didn't fail anyone. What you are seeing is scientific research played out in the public forum. Most of this stuff (at least for us anyway) happens behind the scenes and behing closed doors or at professional conventions and/or symposiums. This was an unknown virus as of 6 month ago. There has been aggressive research done on the virus over that time span. Typically, you would do your research, get it peer-reviewed, edited, then published (a 1-2 year process). At that point everyone in the relevant scientific community would read it and offer criticism or support. This would initiate more testing and research by different groups to either replicate your findings or disprove your findings and then the data parsing, writing, peer-review, publishing process would happen all over again followed by the relevant scientific community reading and reviewing the work. This happens over and over again (sometimes over a decade) until the scientific field comes to an understanding and consensus on a matter.

Due to the nature of this virus you are seeing that process sped up. You are seeing non-peer-reviewed articles being published online in order to expedite the process and get the info out as fast as possible due to the emergency of the situation. The problem is that media members then grab these technical articles and treat them as if they are 100% accurate when they are, in fact, theories at BEST and have yet to be fully reviewed by the scientific community.

That's not how science works and the media and other outlets need to be educated that just because a scientific article on researchgate, plos, or pubmed says "we believe XYZ based on the data gathered during the course of our research" doesn't mean that is the answer...it's just a step on the path toward the answer.

Great post, Dawgology. I've wondered what it would be like if the public at large a had media amplified information from the "Results" section of research papers. We now have some idea how that plays out. True consensus difficult to come by.