The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[Jack Lambert]

Probably too early to spike the ball just yet, but Georgia is looking good. If this continues, a lot of people are gonna owe kemp an apology

I think everyone is going to get it and going back to work is not going to change that. In fact I think Multiple millions have already had it.

[Cooterpoot]

Projections are that 70%+ of the world will contract it, no matter the measures taken.

[Johnson85]

Projections are that 70%+ of the world will contract it, no matter the measures taken.

I think that 70% was based on an R0 that has since been revised upwards when they realized how many asymptomatic cases there are. So that 70% number may be low compared to current expectations.

[Johnson85]

How fat do you have to be to be high risk?

The Kaiser Family Foundation pegged the BMI at 40, which is morbidly obese. https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covi...h-coronavirus/

Not sure what data they are basing that on or how reliable it is, but thought it might be of interest to a lot of posters here. I was hoping that it wasn't really people with a BMI of 30 or 31, which is technically obese but brings in a lot of reasonably healthy people, even if they are overweight (and also includes a not insignificant number of people that are healthy nuts and lifters).

[hacker]

Here's the excess deaths graphic broken down for certain states

[Extendedcab]

Projections are that 70%+ of the world will contract it, no matter the measures taken.

You don't think that eventually everybody will contract it given how contagious it is?

[Liverpooldawg]

You don't think that eventually everybody will contract it given how contagious it is?

There will always be people who are not susceptible to any disease. Not everybody got the Spanish Flu or the Black Death either.

[Liverpooldawg]

How fat do you have to be to be high risk?

The Kaiser Family Foundation pegged the BMI at 40, which is morbidly obese. https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covi...h-coronavirus/

Not sure what data they are basing that on or how reliable it is, but thought it might be of interest to a lot of posters here. I was hoping that it wasn't really people with a BMI of 30 or 31, which is technically obese but brings in a lot of reasonably healthy people, even if they are overweight (and also includes a not insignificant number of people that are healthy nuts and lifters).

BMI over 40 is in the definition of high risk that we have been issued by the state to work under. It makes a big difference in the procedures we can do.

[Cooterpoot]

You don't think that eventually everybody will contract it given how contagious it is?

100%? No. We'll have a vaccine before that point.

[Jack Lambert]

BMI over 40 is in the definition of high risk that we have been issued by the state to work under. It makes a big difference in the procedures we can do.

BMI is misleading. You can be overweight by that scale and only be 4% body fat.

[Dawgology]

100%? No. We'll have a vaccine before that point.

Doubt it. This will be endimic to the population and will occur yearly in waves much like the flu. There may be a seasonal vaccine eventually (much like the flu) but about the only way to create a permanent vaccine will be to create a DNA/RNA based 3rd (or even 4th) generation vaccine which will takes years to develop. I don't think the coronaviruses lend themselves to typical antibody vaccines.

[Dawgfan77]

Interesting
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[Commercecomet24]

Hospitalization is currently running at around 5% of the cases that I'm seeing. Vent use is about 1%. Death is about .5%. That's just the areas I see.

I concur with this. Based on the hospital admins I deal with the numbers you mentioned are the same.

[Dawg2003]

Doubt it. This will be endimic to the population and will occur yearly in waves much like the flu. There may be a seasonal vaccine eventually (much like the flu) but about the only way to create a permanent vaccine will be to create a DNA/RNA based 3rd (or even 4th) generation vaccine which will takes years to develop. I don't think the coronaviruses lend themselves to typical antibody vaccines.

Yup. We're stuck with this virus for the duration.

[Cooterpoot]

Doubt it. This will be endimic to the population and will occur yearly in waves much like the flu. There may be a seasonal vaccine eventually (much like the flu) but about the only way to create a permanent vaccine will be to create a DNA/RNA based 3rd (or even 4th) generation vaccine which will takes years to develop. I don't think the coronaviruses lend themselves to typical antibody vaccines.

IF everyone is immune after catching it, spreading slows down. High end projections put it at 70% of the world population. Never, will 100% of the population catch it.

[Liverpooldawg]

BMI is misleading. You can be overweight by that scale and only be 4% body fat.

I'm just telling you how the MS Dept of Health defines the weight risk. I'm 5'10 and around 170-175. I'd have to be about 285 to get to 40.

[Jack Lambert]

I'm just telling you how the MS Dept of Health defines the weight risk. I'm 5'10 and around 170-175. I'd have to be about 285 to get to 40.

I wasn't trying to argue or come at you. I was just giving an opinion.

[Liverpooldawg]

I concur with this. Based on the hospital admins I deal with the numbers you mentioned are the same.

The current rate in MS is 17.9% That has been dropping though. One observation: I may very well be wrong but from what I can tell most of the nursing home deaths here, and we have had a lot, are occurring in the nursing home, not the hospital. Are we not sending nursing home COVID patients to the hospital anymore?

[Commercecomet24]

The current rate in MS is 17.9%

I'm not just in Mississippi, I deal with over 60 hospitals in 8 states and the average rate is the same as Cooter mentioned.

[Dawg2003]

Do we know how long the immunity lasts if you get COVID?