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05-04-2020, 04:19 PM
#3041
Originally Posted by
hacker
IHME updated again, this time a little more realistic
They're gonna be right in the end no matter what, aren't they? 2 million to 60k to 134k
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05-04-2020, 04:37 PM
#3042
Originally Posted by
msstate7
That's really pitiful that the damn governor didn't know this Friday. Seems like someone must have hid that very relevant fact to stay locked down a little longer
MDH is to blame. And they do indeed suck! Nobody is using them with testing. They can't even get simple numbers correct. And it's a shame, because Dobbs is a good guy.
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05-04-2020, 04:45 PM
#3043
Originally Posted by
Cooterpoot
MDH is to blame. And they do indeed suck! Nobody is using them with testing. They can't even get simple numbers correct. And it's a shame, because Dobbs is a good guy.
Yeah Dr Dobbs is an excellent physician and good man. MDH has struggled with this since the get go.
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05-04-2020, 04:46 PM
#3044
Originally Posted by
msstate7
They're gonna be right in the end no matter what, aren't they? 2 million to 60k to 134k
Show me where IHME projected 2 million.
Y'all sure did love this model when it unrealistically dropped to 60k. Hmm
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05-04-2020, 04:49 PM
#3045
Originally Posted by
hacker
Show me where IHME projected 2 million.
Y'all sure did love this model when it unrealistically dropped to 60k. Hmm
Damn, sorry... it was a lot more than 60k, but dropped. I liked it bc it was hopeful. Sorry, I didn't want this to be so tragic.
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05-04-2020, 04:57 PM
#3046
Originally Posted by
msstate7
Damn, sorry... it was a lot more than 60k, but dropped. I liked it bc it was hopeful. Sorry, I didn't want this to be so tragic.
C'mon, 7. Obviously everyone wants to be hopeful. That's a flawed argument here; it's about being realistic, and most importantly, being prepared for realistic projections.
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05-04-2020, 04:59 PM
#3047
Originally Posted by
msstate7
Damn, sorry. I liked it bc it was hopeful. Sorry, I didn't want this to be so tragic.
Fair enough, I understand wanting to have hope.
But I want to be realistic because a lot of people still aren't taking it seriously, which leads to more dead people in the end.
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05-04-2020, 05:05 PM
#3048
Senior Member
Originally Posted by
hacker
IHME updated again, this time a little more realistic
I saw a pretty good explainer on this model the other day. It talks about how the model was developed. One of the big issues that I know you've been pointing out was that they were just fitting the data to a Gaussian curve which is why it kept unrealistically dropping to zero. As opposed to what more sophisticated models were doing modeling population spread more realistically but with much higher uncertainty.
Worth a read.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...-ihme-pandemic
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05-04-2020, 05:06 PM
#3049
Parks and restaurants opening to half capacity in MS..... have fun with that.
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05-04-2020, 05:06 PM
#3050
Also just wanted to add, this model assumes our social distancing continues at the same rate.
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05-04-2020, 05:08 PM
#3051
Originally Posted by
dparker
One of the big issues that I know you've been pointing out was that they were just fitting the data to a Gaussian curve which is why it kept unrealistically dropping to zero.
Yeah. And it looks like they've addressed that issue in the latest update, which is a big reason why the numbers are drastically higher now.
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05-04-2020, 08:08 PM
#3052
Do y'all think MS will have 782 covid deaths or more? I say that number bc that is how many flu deaths we had in 2017 (couldn't find 2018 or 2019 stats). And yes, I know covid is more contagious than the flu, I'm just saying from total death numbers, will we lose more people to covid than the flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/s...ississippi.htm
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05-04-2020, 08:30 PM
#3053
Originally Posted by
hacker
Also just wanted to add, this model assumes our social distancing continues at the same rate.
Social distancing slows deaths. Doesn't stop them. I've seen no evidence that says social distancing is a way to stop it. Tell me how I'm wrong.
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05-04-2020, 08:31 PM
#3054
Originally Posted by
confucius say
Do y'all think MS will have 782 covid deaths or more? I say that number bc that is how many flu deaths we had in 2017 (couldn't find 2018 or 2019 stats). And yes, I know covid is more contagious than the flu, I'm just saying from total death numbers, will we lose more people to covid than the flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/s...ississippi.htm
Yeah. We will before it's over. Now in what time frame I don't know.
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05-04-2020, 08:37 PM
#3055
Originally Posted by
confucius say
Do y'all think MS will have 782 covid deaths or more? I say that number bc that is how many flu deaths we had in 2017 (couldn't find 2018 or 2019 stats). And yes, I know covid is more contagious than the flu, I'm just saying from total death numbers, will we lose more people to covid than the flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/s...ississippi.htm
For the whole year, 2020, I say yeah. Seems there would be no doubt though considering covid19 is considered much more deadly and there's no vaccine like with the flu
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05-04-2020, 08:46 PM
#3056
Originally Posted by
msstate7
For the whole year, 2020, I say yeah. Seems there would be no doubt though considering covid19 is considered much more deadly and there's no vaccine like with the flu
Is this a positive or negative post. Gotta stay negative dude ***
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05-04-2020, 08:47 PM
#3057
Originally Posted by
Homedawg
Social distancing slows deaths. Doesn't stop them. I've seen no evidence that says social distancing is a way to stop it. Tell me how I'm wrong.
Yeah it elongates the curve, doesn't stop it.
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05-04-2020, 09:17 PM
#3058
Originally Posted by
Commercecomet24
Yeah it elongates the curve, doesn't stop it.
That's what I thought... yet let's hang on to a disaster to make it longer. Suicide rate for 20 and beyond going to be through the roof.
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05-04-2020, 09:27 PM
#3059
Originally Posted by
confucius say
Do y'all think MS will have 782 covid deaths or more? I say that number bc that is how many flu deaths we had in 2017 (couldn't find 2018 or 2019 stats). And yes, I know covid is more contagious than the flu, I'm just saying from total death numbers, will we lose more people to covid than the flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/s...ississippi.htm
It will be way more than that.
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05-04-2020, 09:33 PM
#3060
Originally Posted by
Liverpooldawg
It will be way more than that.
For the year i Agree it will be more. How much who knows. 40% of all MS deaths are LTC facilities. While tragic, some of those would have died anyway. Sad but true.
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