The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[Jack Lambert]

Actually if you want the complete story read this from WCNC out of Charlotte...

https://www.wcnc.com/mobile/article/...e-16beca4104c4

Seems the woman started her isolation on March 15, then left the house and went to a pharmacy on March 18. Symptoms began on March 22, she went to be tested on April 5 and she was finally diagnosed with Covid-19 on April 9. I guess the updated version didn't fit The Lead Patriot, The Blaze or their audience's agenda. Talk about fake news. Lolz.

I did not read neither of the two but out of curiosity how do we know which one is true? Hell they both might be fake. I don't believe shit any more. The media have lost their way because of political tunnel vision.

[msstate7]

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Holy shit, me and Trump agree about something

I support our president; but you think in a million years he'd say "Sweden was right and the US made the wrong decision"? No one knows whether Sweden made the right decision yet.

[Turfdawg67]

I did not read neither of the two but out of curiosity how do we know which one is true? Hell they both might be fake. I don't believe shit any more. The media have lost their way because of political tunnel vision.

Oh I don't know... because the woman lives in Charlotte and WCNC is the local TV station in Charlotte. Is the local media biased now? Has the Starkville Daily News been infiltrated by libtards? WCNC ran the story first, The Blaze and The Lead Patriot took the story and put it on their sites. WCNC updated the story when all the facts were in... the others did not.

[Cooterpoot]

Damn. You probably said already, but where are your hospitals again, Cooter?

Pine Belt and one around Jackson

[Johnson85]

I support our president; but you think in a million years he'd say "Sweden was right and the US made the wrong decision"? No one knows whether Sweden made the right decision yet.

^^^This^^^ Sweden made a ballsy call with the amount of information they had at the time. Based on the updated information, I would bet that Sweden made the right call, but it's still very much up in the air because of uncertainty in the data we have and also because new developments could change the results in a heartbeat. We could find out in the next two weeks that Remdisivir doesn't reduce mortality at all, or that it cuts mortality in half, or that it cuts mortality by 90%. Whether Sweden's decision ultimately turns out to be the right or wrong call with the benefit of hindsight could look different under each of those scenarios.

[Dawgology]

^^^This^^^ Sweden made a ballsy call with the amount of information they had at the time. Based on the updated information, I would bet that Sweden made the right call, but it's still very much up in the air because of uncertainty in the data we have and also because new developments could change the results in a heartbeat. We could find out in the next two weeks that Remdisivir doesn't reduce mortality at all, or that it cuts mortality in half, or that it cuts mortality by 90%. Whether Sweden's decision ultimately turns out to be the right or wrong call with the benefit of hindsight could look different under each of those scenarios.

Checking out Sweden's numbers on worldometer everything looks ok for them. They have had a gradual progression that appears to be leveling off. Maybe even dipping a bit overall.

[hacker]

I support our president; but you think in a million years he'd say "Sweden was right and the US made the wrong decision"? No one knows whether Sweden made the right decision yet.

He could've not said anything

[Liverpooldawg]

I support our president; but you think in a million years he'd say "Sweden was right and the US made the wrong decision"? No one knows whether Sweden made the right decision yet.

As of now it looks like they really screwed up. Time will tell though.

[defiantdog]

I still don't believe any numbers being thrown out by any media format. China is lying about the amount of cases, we are inflating the number of cases, and Europe is clueless. Not to mention..... the WHO has been clueless this entire time, and they are supposed to be the experts.

[hacker]

As of now it looks like they really screwed up. Time will tell though.

Agreed. Take a quick scroll through this page

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...WE+NOR+DNK+FIN

Norway, Finland, and Denmark are opening back up and have the numbers low enough they can trace and isolate (similar to South Korea, which is down to single digit cases per day now)

Of course, it's too early to call it. And we need to see economic numbers as well.

[smootness]

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Holy shit, me and Trump agree about something

I think it's far too early to say anything definitive about this.

Sweden's death rate has definitely outpaced their neighbors, and it is slightly outpacing ours, but not drastically. And if it turns out that most of the population becomes exposed to it eventually, as many studies have said will happen, then they may both reach the end of it sooner and see less economic impact as a result, all while the overall number of people affected is about equal.

They have said from the beginning they would see more deaths early; they knew of the reality of their response. They said the reason they were going that route was because it was a more sustainable response, and that may prove true. If we try to ramp back up and then shut back down once cases spike again, we're going to be caught in a vicious cycle that may ultimately hurt us worse.

[smootness]

Agreed. Take a quick scroll through this page

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...WE+NOR+DNK+FIN

Norway, Finland, and Denmark are opening back up and have the numbers low enough they can trace and isolate (similar to South Korea, which is down to single digit cases per day now)

Of course, it's too early to call it. And we need to see economic numbers as well.

This thing is far from over. I think even adding 'as of now,' any analysis is essentially useless. Now, if Sweden had a death rate of like 20% so far, I would certainly agree it's probably early enough to say it was a bad move. But it's not anywhere near something that bad.

Simply looking at current death rates and comparing is basically meaningless. All death counts will continue to rise, and it's possible Sweden's slows down while others don't and they catch up. It's simply way too early to say anything.

[hacker]

This thing is far from over. I think even adding 'as of now,' any analysis is essentially useless. Now, if Sweden had a death rate of like 20% so far, I would certainly agree it's probably early enough to say it was a bad move. But it's not anywhere near something that bad.

Simply looking at current death rates and comparing is basically meaningless. All death counts will continue to rise, and it's possible Sweden's slows down while others don't and they catch up. It's simply way too early to say anything.

Sweden is 12.2% case fatality rate
Norway is 2.7% case fatality rate

Sweden: 790 new cases today, 124 new deaths
Norway: 24 new cases today, 3 new deaths




On the second chart, you can clearly see where the lockdown started having an effect. The trajectories were almost exactly the same.

Norway has begun lifting the lockdown and their cases are not increasing yet. They are at a place where the numbers are so low they can trace and isolate any new cases.

I realize anything is possible in the future, but this evidence is pretty strong IMO. We need economic numbers as well.

[smootness]

Sweden is 12.2% case fatality rate
Norway is 2.7% case fatality rate

Sweden: 790 new cases today, 124 new deaths
Norway: 24 new cases today, 3 new deaths




On the second chart, you can clearly see where the lockdown started having an effect. The trajectories were almost exactly the same.

Norway has begun lifting the lockdown and their cases are not increasing yet. They are at a place where the numbers are so low they can trace and isolate any new cases.

I realize anything is possible in the future, but this evidence is pretty strong IMO. We need economic numbers as well.

Keep in mind, too, though, that Sweden has double the population of Norway and a higher population density. A lot of their impact is happening in Stockholm, similar to the US with New York, which is much bigger than any city in Norway and has much greater population density.

I think it's likely Sweden would have begun to outpace Norway at least slightly even if they had both done the same thing.

But saying Norway has begun lifting lockdown without increasing cases is, again, mostly meaningless at this point. They will have to continue to open it up more in order to keep their economy from tanking, and as they do, their cases will undoubtedly spike and almost certainly past the point of being able to fully contact trace. Once that happens, you're back where you started.

Again, the point is that Sweden's strategy is more sustainable. Time will tell if the stricter lockdowns lowered the number of cases and deaths, and if the added economic struggles were worth it.

[hacker]

They will have to continue to open it up more in order to keep their economy from tanking, and as they do, their cases will undoubtedly spike and almost certainly past the point of being able to fully contact trace.

How can you say this is "undoubtedly" going to happen?

Look at South Korea. South Korea is fully reopened.



Since you brought up population and density, they also have a lot more people and a lot higher population density than Sweden.

Norway is following South Korea's strategy btw.

[smootness]

How can you say this is "undoubtedly" going to happen?

Look at South Korea. South Korea is fully reopened.
Since you brought up population and density, they also have a lot more people and a lot higher population density than Sweden.

Norway is following South Korea's strategy btw.

Sorry, my original post was wrong about the level of testing.

The difference in South Korea is that they started testing and contact tracing aggressively from the very beginning. They also have a system in place that is much better designed to aid in this than even Norway.

Has Norway gotten control over all the cases in the country? If not, reopening is destined to lead to another spike. I honestly don't have enough information to know myself, so what I posted originally may have been off-base.

I still say we won't know until we're truly past this disease and a vaccine is available as to who handled it better.

[smootness]

For the record, I don't think there's any doubt South Korea is the model for this. There is a debate to be had as to whether or not their culture has helped and what level of government authority and oversight we want; after all, they are updating people on where their neighbors and locals who have had the virus are going, and I'm not sure we'd ever be ok with that.

But in terms of preparedness, they are a model we should do everything we can to emulate so we're prepared the next time something like this comes along.

[hacker]

Norway's testing isn't close to the level South Korea's is or has been. They did a good job of shutting down early, and their results have shown that, but they'll have to test far more than they do right now if they hope to reopen. South Korea has tested over 10,000 per million and Norway is still under 1,000.

This is false.

Norway has tested 32,000 per million.
South Korea has tested 12,000 per million.

[smootness]

This is false.

Norway has tested 32,000 per million.
South Korea has tested 12,000 per million.

Yeah, I just edited my prior post. I got data from the wrong place.

But testing is only one part of the equation. South Korea has a system much better designed to test and then contact trace than I believe Norway has.

Even the US is now testing people at a higher rate than South Korea, but it won't mean much because we don't have a similar system in place to trace and isolate those who have it or have come in contact with it.

[hacker]

Norway tested around 3250 people yesterday and found 24 positive cases.