The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[Johnson85]

I did.

So starting testing in February even though the virus was here and elsewhere in December gives you the heads up you think you needed? That sounds like a 2 month lag to me.

And even though some of the test results take up to 2 weeks to get back?? Yet that's supposed to give the hospitals/country time to prepare for what's coming? Just from results saying positive or negative? Who know how long been positive or negative though.

And like Jack said. Being tested one day doesn't mean you don't contract it in the following days.

I would bet there are multiple people who got tested, 2 weeks later found out they were negative, but then in the 2-week wait, contracted the virus unknowingly. Good thing we got their negative results in though. That does us some good now.

Then maybe you need to read more posts back because you are apparently lost as to what we are talking about.

We're not talking about using tests back in December or February. We're talking about using tests now to guide how restrictive our mitigation efforts need to be to keep our healthcare system from being overwhelmed. And it doesn't matter if somebody tests negative and then later contracts the virus. I mean, it matters to them obviously, but it just means they would get retested. THere would be some people who contract it so soon after testing that they don't get retested b/c they assume it is whatever they were dealing with before, and they would essentially have the same impact as false negatives. They'll have an impact, but it will be in the noise.

So to reexplain, we look at our hospital capacity remaining, and the number of positive cases. We know roughly what percentage of cases will require hospitalization and then ICU care, so we can look at the number of positive cases and predict what kind of hospitalizations and ICU needs there will be in a week. We can also see whether the virus is spreading more or less quickly (really as of about 4-7 days before the tests because of typical lags between infection and symptoms). That will give a rough idea of whether we can loosen up mitigation measures for the next week without overwhelming our healthcare system or whether we need to stay the same or even tighten back up. Won't be perfect, but seems like a viable plan. Basically similar to what the whitehouse has proposed but altered to recognize the fact that their gate keeping doesn't make sense for areas that haven't already reached their healthcare capacity.

[StateDawg44]

Then maybe you need to read more posts back because you are apparently lost as to what we are talking about.

We're not talking about using tests back in December or February. We're talking about using tests now to guide how restrictive our mitigation efforts need to be to keep our healthcare system from being overwhelmed. And it doesn't matter if somebody tests negative and then later contracts the virus. I mean, it matters to them obviously, but it just means they would get retested. THere would be some people who contract it so soon after testing that they don't get retested b/c they assume it is whatever they were dealing with before, and they would essentially have the same impact as false negatives. They'll have an impact, but it will be in the noise.

So to reexplain, we look at our hospital capacity remaining, and the number of positive cases. We know roughly what percentage of cases will require hospitalization and then ICU care, so we can look at the number of positive cases and predict what kind of hospitalizations and ICU needs there will be in a week. We can also see whether the virus is spreading more or less quickly (really as of about 4-7 days before the tests because of typical lags between infection and symptoms). That will give a rough idea of whether we can loosen up mitigation measures for the next week without overwhelming our healthcare system or whether we need to stay the same or even tighten back up. Won't be perfect, but seems like a viable plan. Basically similar to what the whitehouse has proposed but altered to recognize the fact that their gate keeping doesn't make sense for areas that haven't already reached their healthcare capacity.

No we don't because we don't know how many people have had it and have antibodies.

[Johnson85]

No we don't because we don't know how many people have had it and have antibodies.

Not the percentage of all cases. THe percentage of positive cases. We are still basically only testing people who are symptomatic. We have been testing symptomatic people and have an idea of how many of those will be hospitalized based on prior experience in Mississippi and can also get information from elsewhere. To the extent we were limiting testing before and are now not limited, we may have to adjust the expected percentage of hospitalizations down as we are testing people that wouldn't have been tested before, but that's an adjustment that can be ball parked reasonably well. Or we can just adjust it going forward based on actual experience if we want to be more conservative.

[Dawgology]

No we don't because we don't know how many people have had it and have antibodies.

This is correct. It would appear that the majority of individuals that get Coronavirus are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms that barely register with them while the second largest group shows symptoms comparable with a seasonal cold or flu. A smaller percentage requires hospitalization while a very slim percentage die. We won't know the real R0 value or infected numbers for another 2 years probably.

The most effective stop gap measure right now would be a rapid antibody test combined with testing for Covid-19 if you begin feeling sick (for contact tracing). If you have the antibody then you get back to work. In fact, if you have the antibody right now then you would be a desireable job candidate for many reasons. Mass testing for having the diease will just give you a snap shot at the time and is unrealistic in a country the size (geographically) of America and with 360 million people.

[defiantdog]

This is correct. It would appear that the majority of individuals that get Coronavirus are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms that barely register with them while the second largest group shows symptoms comparable with a seasonal cold or flu. A smaller percentage requires hospitalization while a very slim percentage die. We won't know the real R0 value or infected numbers for another 2 years probably.

The most effective stop gap measure right now would be a rapid antibody test combined with testing for Covid-19 if you begin feeling sick (for contact tracing). If you have the antibody then you get back to work. In fact, if you have the antibody right now then you would be a desireable job candidate for many reasons. Mass testing for having the diease will just give you a snap shot at the time and is unrealistic in a country the size (geographically) of America and with 360 million people.

Ha! We couldn't even mass test for people with symptoms. The Alabama governor admitted that under 1% of people in Alabama have been tested. There is no way we will mass test for antibodies. Healthcare workers are amazing and doing a great job. Unfortunately, the administrators are doing an awful job. That includes Fauci and his self righteous speeches. Get something done Fauci..... do your job. Quit telling people it's okay to lose your job because you don't want to expedite a vaccine. It's ridiculous how he can get on every media platform and tell us what we're doing wrong and how many people are going to die. The guy may be a decent doctor, but he can't produce results. He keeps telling us what we're doing wrong, but he won't tell us how to properly fix the issue. Staying home forever isn't going to fix the issue because some people won't have a home to stay at. A vaccine needs to be his top priority..... not bad talking with the media.

[Dawgology]

Ha! We couldn't even mass test for people with symptoms. The Alabama governor admitted that under 1% of people in Alabama have been tested. There is no way we will mass test for antibodies. Healthcare workers are amazing and doing a great job. Unfortunately, the administrators are doing an awful job. That includes Fauci and his self righteous speeches. Get something done Fauci..... do your job. Quit telling people it's okay to lose your job because you don't want to expedite a vaccine. It's ridiculous how he can get on every media platform and tell us what we're doing wrong and how many people are going to die. The guy may be a decent doctor, but he can't produce results. He keeps telling us what we're doing wrong, but he won't tell us how to properly fix the issue. Staying home forever isn't going to fix the issue because some people won't have a home to stay at. A vaccine needs to be his top priority..... not bad talking with the media.

Antibody testing could be done from home with an assay test and swab. That's how it should be done. It's just a serological test.

Or you could do an at home collection kit and mail it in.

[StateDawg44]

Not the percentage of all cases. THe percentage of positive cases. We are still basically only testing people who are symptomatic. We have been testing symptomatic people and have an idea of how many of those will be hospitalized based on prior experience in Mississippi and can also get information from elsewhere. To the extent we were limiting testing before and are now not limited, we may have to adjust the expected percentage of hospitalizations down as we are testing people that wouldn't have been tested before, but that's an adjustment that can be ball parked reasonably well. Or we can just adjust it going forward based on actual experience if we want to be more conservative.

Again, you can't and won't get that true number (or reasonable ballpark figure) ever because of the wide range of asymptomatic and heavily symptomatic.

Ha! We couldn't even mass test for people with symptoms. The Alabama governor admitted that under 1% of people in Alabama have been tested. There is no way we will mass test for antibodies. Healthcare workers are amazing and doing a great job. Unfortunately, the administrators are doing an awful job. That includes Fauci and his self righteous speeches. Get something done Fauci..... do your job. Quit telling people it's okay to lose your job because you don't want to expedite a vaccine. It's ridiculous how he can get on every media platform and tell us what we're doing wrong and how many people are going to die. The guy may be a decent doctor, but he can't produce results. He keeps telling us what we're doing wrong, but he won't tell us how to properly fix the issue. Staying home forever isn't going to fix the issue because some people won't have a home to stay at. A vaccine needs to be his top priority..... not bad talking with the media.

Expedite a vaccine???? What does that even mean? Name the last vaccine that was expedited.

I'm not defending Fauci because like every other human on earth. He has no actual clue about any of this. Everyone is guessing and still collecting data. EVERYBODY. Unfortunately, there still isn't enough for anyone to do anything with the data.

[Dawgology]

Again, you can't and won't get that true number (or reasonable ballpark figure) ever because of the wide range of asymptomatic and heavily symptomatic.







Expedite a vaccine???? What does that even mean? Name the last vaccine that was expedited.

I'm not defending Fauci because like every other human on earth. He has no actual clue about any of this. Everyone is guessing and still collecting data. EVERYBODY. Unfortunately, there still isn't enough for anyone to do anything with the data.

Outside of using it for political leverage and manipulating the public.

[StateDawg44]

Outside of using it for political leverage and manipulating the public.

What's new...?

[BeardoMSU]

Ha! We couldn't even mass test for people with symptoms. The Alabama governor admitted that under 1% of people in Alabama have been tested. There is no way we will mass test for antibodies. Healthcare workers are amazing and doing a great job. Unfortunately, the administrators are doing an awful job. That includes Fauci and his self righteous speeches. Get something done Fauci..... do your job. Quit telling people it's okay to lose your job because you don't want to expedite a vaccine. It's ridiculous how he can get on every media platform and tell us what we're doing wrong and how many people are going to die. The guy may be a decent doctor, but he can't produce results. He keeps telling us what we're doing wrong, but he won't tell us how to properly fix the issue. Staying home forever isn't going to fix the issue because some people won't have a home to stay at. A vaccine needs to be his top priority..... not bad talking with the media.

Lots to unpack here...

[Dawgology]

Ha! We couldn't even mass test for people with symptoms. The Alabama governor admitted that under 1% of people in Alabama have been tested. There is no way we will mass test for antibodies. Healthcare workers are amazing and doing a great job. Unfortunately, the administrators are doing an awful job. That includes Fauci and his self righteous speeches. Get something done Fauci..... do your job. Quit telling people it's okay to lose your job because you don't want to expedite a vaccine. It's ridiculous how he can get on every media platform and tell us what we're doing wrong and how many people are going to die. The guy may be a decent doctor, but he can't produce results. He keeps telling us what we're doing wrong, but he won't tell us how to properly fix the issue. Staying home forever isn't going to fix the issue because some people won't have a home to stay at. A vaccine needs to be his top priority..... not bad talking with the media.

Always a great plan to expedite a vaccine. Always.******************************************* ************************

[StateDawg44]

Always a great plan to expedite a vaccine. Always.******************************************* ************************

Yeah, sign me up to have some unproven lab-made crap injected into me. ******

[Liverpooldawg]

Antibody testing could be done from home with an assay test and swab. That's how it should be done. It's just a serological test.

Or you could do an at home collection kit and mail it in.

I take it you haven't seen how this one has to be done. No way that can be done at home.

[chef dixon]

Antibody testing could be done from home with an assay test and swab. That's how it should be done. It's just a serological test.

Or you could do an at home collection kit and mail it in.

To add onto post above:

Serology means the "study of blood." Any antibody test is going to be a blood test unfortunately. Swabs can only detect the virus itself.

[msstate7]

Antibody testing in NY...

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavir...cross-ny-cuomo

[Commercecomet24]

Antibody testing in NY...

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavir...cross-ny-cuomo

Yes as more and more of these studies are completed you're seeing the same results. Way more people have been exposed and have recovered.

[Cooterpoot]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/dronedj...ash-in-us/amp/

Whoop! There goes more freedom.

[confucius say]

Antibody testing in NY...

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavir...cross-ny-cuomo

Huge and terrific news! Study is limited I know, but shows 14% of people have antibodies and a mortality rate of .5%. Much better.

ETA: it's time to slowly start opening things up. I like the idea of under 50 and healthy going back first, with those over 50 or with underlying conditions remaining sheltered. Let's restart America!

[Jack Lambert]

Yeah, sign me up to have some unproven lab-made crap injected into me. ******

My understanding they are looking for volunteers and they are paying well.

[Johnson85]

Again, you can't and won't get that true number (or reasonable ballpark figure) ever because of the wide range of asymptomatic and heavily symptomatic.

And again, you don't need the number of actual infected. This is not about figuring out the actual number of infected. It's about using the trend in positive cases, as in cases where the person took a test and it came back positive, to guide how we increase or reduce restrictive mitigation measures.
IF there are a lot more cases out there that are asymptomatic than we thought (which seems reasonably likely at this point although the extent of it is up in the air), and we get antibody tests available soon enough, we can use results of the antibody tests to guide policy. Or if they don't become available before we get something close to herd immunity, then we'll see the new confirmed cases reducing regardless of how we are opening up the economy.