The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[redstickdawg]

The test is useless. Just because I am negative today doesn't mean I will be negative tomorrow or the next day. With that said I don't care to know if I am positive or not. What I want to know have I had it.

It is definitely happening. An acquaintance has an elderly family member suffer multiple heart attacks (prior heart issues) in a nursing home and the pass away and was classed as a covid death even though never tested and also there were cases of covid in the nursing home.

[Jack Lambert]

You need both

An antibody test to see who has had it, (and throetically can end social distancing)

And a test to see who has it now. So you can isolate them and contact trace.

By being able to isolate the people that have it, and release the immune, we can open back up faster.

Otherwise we are just yoyoing around overwhelming the medical system...

The only need for the virus test is if you have symptoms and they are testing to see if you have it. Testing to trace the virus is really stupid and is only being used to slow down the reopening. There is no way you can test 100 million workers every single day. Just because you are negative today doesn't mean you are negative tomorrow. However if you test to see if I have had it, that is a one time test and that make sense.

[SheltonChoked]

The only need for the virus test is if you have symptoms and they are testing to see if you have it. Testing to trace the virus is really stupid and is only being used to slow down the reopening. There is no way you can test 100 million workers every single day. Just because you are negative today doesn't mean you are negative tomorrow. However if you test to see if I have had it, that is a one time test and that make sense.

That's not true at all

There are too many people that NEVER show symptoms and still spread the virus.

If you are negative today and not negative tomorrow, it's because you got the virus...

Contact tracing tells you who has been exposed.

If you isolate those positive and those exposed to positive tests, then you can re open

What you propose does nothing to help re open...

[Johnson85]

What's your best plan to get going? Open up and just tough it out or some sort of open/close/open deal?

If I were a governor, I think I'd be opening things up and encouraging social distancing and trying to get as many people as possible to use masks in public, and just shut things down when the healthcare system got overwhelmed. Maybe start off by doing one week relaxed and then one week put the shutdown back in place to see what happens to hospital capacity over the next week. If there is not a noticeable spike, do it for two weeks the next time maybe, until you have an idea of what the spread looks like without mandatory shutdown of anything. Maybe shut down things like conferences, concerts, and other big gatherings because a super spread event their can quickly overwhelm the healthcare system.

But again, that's based on the assumption that we don't have the ability to ramp up capacity for contact tracing and testing at this point. Some of the states that have relatively little spread might be able to do contact tracing and it might make sense for them to stay locked down if they think they can have adequate testing in a couple of weeks.

[SheltonChoked]

If I were a governor, I think I'd be opening things up and encouraging social distancing and trying to get as many people as possible to use masks in public, and just shut things down when the healthcare system got overwhelmed. Maybe start off by doing one week relaxed and then one week put the shutdown back in place to see what happens to hospital capacity over the next week. If there is not a noticeable spike, do it for two weeks the next time maybe, until you have an idea of what the spread looks like without mandatory shutdown of anything. Maybe shut down things like conferences, concerts, and other big gatherings because a super spread event their can quickly overwhelm the healthcare system.

But again, that's based on the assumption that we don't have the ability to ramp up capacity for contact tracing and testing at this point. Some of the states that have relatively little spread might be able to do contact tracing and it might make sense for them to stay locked down if they think they can have adequate testing in a couple of weeks.

You know there is a 2 week lag in the "got infected date" and "Needs a hospital date"?

so is that the plan? open up 2 weeks, then shut it down for 2 weeks? until March?

or, should we use a centralized system to get the materials we need to expend testing?

if only there was some sort of act that granted an entity power to do that...

[Jack Lambert]

That's not true at all

There are too many people that NEVER show symptoms and still spread the virus.

If you are negative today and not negative tomorrow, it's because you got the virus...

Contact tracing tells you who has been exposed.

If you isolate those positive and those exposed to positive tests, then you can re open

What you propose does nothing to help re open...

So you are going to test me everyday? That is impossible. This whole thing is stupid and you are not changing my mind on it. Lets go back to work. This pushing to test 360 million ameircans is just bull shit to keep from opening the economy to hurt Trump as much as possible and for political bull shit they are costing 1000's of Americans everything,

[Johnson85]

You know there is a 2 week lag in the "got infected date" and "Needs a hospital date"?

so is that the plan? open up 2 weeks, then shut it down for 2 weeks? until March?

or, should we use a centralized system to get the materials we need to expend testing?

if only there was some sort of act that granted an entity power to do that...

As long as you are testing people with symptoms, you don't have to wait until they're hospitalized to have an idea of what is coming. If you have shut down for a week and at the end of the next week you are seeing a spike in positive cases, that's a good indication to keep it shut down a second week. Certainly won't be perfect, but better than spending a month with empty hospitals and a shut down economy.

And you are expecting a lot of competence out of the government bureaucracy that 17ed up testing in the first place. That's a massive undertaking that it's not clear to me we can do. I think we should be able to do it. But we seem to have a pretty shitty bureaucracy at the federal level.

[confucius say]

That's not true at all

There are too many people that NEVER show symptoms and still spread the virus...

Antibody test would tell you the same thing, no?

Testing to determine positive/negative for covid is largely a waste of time and money at this point. You are only going to go through the trouble to get tested if you show symptoms. By that time, regardless if your test is positive or negative, you are isolating and being told by your doctor to isolate as long as you show symptoms if you are negative (and an additional 14 days if you are positive). If you have no symptoms, the much more useful test is an antibody test.

Antibody testing is the key to reopening to the economy and that is where the resources should be directed.

[Commercecomet24]

Antibody test would tell you the same thing, no?

Testing to determine positive/negative for covid is largely a waste of time and money at this point. You are only going to go through the trouble to get tested if you show symptoms. By that time, regardless if your test is positive or negative, you are isolating and being told by your doctor to isolate as long as you show symptoms if you are negative (and an additional 14 days if you are positive). If you have no symptoms, the much more useful test is an antibody test.

Antibody testing is the key to reopening to the economy and that is where the resources should be directed.

This is correct course of action according to people who know a whole heckuva lot more than i do about this.

ETA I have to add though is anyone really sure about anything anymore?

[StateDawg44]

As long as you are testing people with symptoms, you don't have to wait until they're hospitalized to have an idea of what is coming. If you have shut down for a week and at the end of the next week you are seeing a spike in positive cases, that's a good indication to keep it shut down a second week. Certainly won't be perfect, but better than spending a month with empty hospitals and a shut down economy.

And you are expecting a lot of competence out of the government bureaucracy that 17ed up testing in the first place. That's a massive undertaking that it's not clear to me we can do. I think we should be able to do it. But we seem to have a pretty shitty bureaucracy at the federal level.

"what is coming."??? If they test positive it is already here.

You make it seem like everyone who tests positive requires hospitalization.

[confucius say]

This is correct course of action according to people who know a whole heckuva lot more than i do about this.

ETA I have to add though is anyone really sure about anything anymore?

I'm sure that university of Mississippi sucks at sports. Hope that counts.

[hacker]

Checking in on Sweden and its neighbors





You can see exactly where the lockdown started having an effect on the second chart. They were tracking almost exactly the same before.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm sure that university of Mississippi sucks at sports. Hope that counts.

Rep Given! I concur on that one! I might add unm pretty much sucks at everything.

[Johnson85]

"what is coming."??? If they test positive it is already here.

You make it seem like everyone who tests positive requires hospitalization.

You have to read the post I was responding to.

THe number of positive cases tells you what is coming as far as hospitalizations not as far as how many positive cases you will have (although it will give you a rough idea there too). So you don't wait until you see the hospitals overwhelmed, at that point, not only is your hospital overrun, you've got a lot more cases coming. But we have a rough idea of how many cases will require hospitalizations. If you see a big enough spike in cases that your hospital capacity is going to be under pressure (or even just a growth rate that will result in that), you clamp back down.

Still might end up having your hospitals overwhelmed because there is still a lag, but it's not a two week lag.

[BeardoMSU]

This type of shit really doesn't help...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/u...W5P_00q-qTl-xw

Edit: if true, obviously.

Edit #2: an interesting addendum/counter to the original NYT piece that gives a bit more background to the timeline and minutia of it all...

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/20...mpression=true

[msstate7]

Checking in on Sweden and its neighbors





You can see exactly where the lockdown started having an effect on the second chart. They were tracking almost exactly the same before.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/22/...sfYXfZNqGGNdKg

Be interesting to see if Sweden's strategy really does start paying off soon

[dantheman4248]

I'm sure that university of Mississippi sucks at sports. Hope that counts.

Hear hear

[BeardoMSU]

This type of shit really doesn't help...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/u...W5P_00q-qTl-xw

Edit: if true, obviously.

Edit #2: an interesting addendum/counter to the original NYT piece that gives a bit more background to the timeline and minutia of it all...

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/20...mpression=true

I've updated this post, btw.

[Joebob]

The only need for the virus test is if you have symptoms and they are testing to see if you have it. Testing to trace the virus is really stupid and is only being used to slow down the reopening. There is no way you can test 100 million workers every single day. Just because you are negative today doesn't mean you are negative tomorrow. However if you test to see if I have had it, that is a one time test and that make sense.

This is why you’re not in charge.

[StateDawg44]

You have to read the post I was responding to.

THe number of positive cases tells you what is coming as far as hospitalizations not as far as how many positive cases you will have (although it will give you a rough idea there too). So you don't wait until you see the hospitals overwhelmed, at that point, not only is your hospital overrun, you've got a lot more cases coming. But we have a rough idea of how many cases will require hospitalizations. If you see a big enough spike in cases that your hospital capacity is going to be under pressure (or even just a growth rate that will result in that), you clamp back down.

Still might end up having your hospitals overwhelmed because there is still a lag, but it's not a two-week lag.

I did.

So starting testing in February even though the virus was here and elsewhere in December gives you the heads up you think you needed? That sounds like a 2 month lag to me.

And even though some of the test results take up to 2 weeks to get back?? Yet that's supposed to give the hospitals/country time to prepare for what's coming? Just from results saying positive or negative? Who know how long been positive or negative though.

And like Jack said. Being tested one day doesn't mean you don't contract it in the following days.

I would bet there are multiple people who got tested, 2 weeks later found out they were negative, but then in the 2-week wait, contracted the virus unknowingly. Good thing we got their negative results in though. That does us some good now.