The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[hacker]

Along the same lines, I just saw this

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...thout-symptoms

[Commercecomet24]

Great news.

I think it's an extremely good idea and will be interesting to see the results

[Todd4State]

Along the same lines, I just saw this

https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...thout-symptoms

I think this is a good idea. Of course the issue is the availability of tests and how long it takes the test results to come back. And I know they're working on both of those issues as I type this.

[BrunswickDawg]

For all of you who've been saying it was around earlier......
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...early-february

Confirmed Feb. 6th death in Santa Clara. Article says it may have been in Cali in December.

[Todd4State]

For all of you who've been saying it was around earlier......
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...early-february

Confirmed Feb. 6th death in Santa Clara. Article says it may have been in Cali in December.

Hopefully that means we are closer to having immunity. I highly suspect more people have had this than they realize.

[turkish]

For all of you who've been saying it was around earlier......
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...early-february

Confirmed Feb. 6th death in Santa Clara. Article says it may have been in Cali in December.

Who will be the first on the thread to tell us that the medical examiner is a hack?

[BrunswickDawg]

Who will be the first on the thread to tell us that the medical examiner is a hack?

Or that LA is starting to label all deaths COVID so they get more money

[hacker]

April 18-21 projected deaths using the model: 8094
April 18-21 actual deaths: 8169

That's pretty accurate, no?

Why didn't you mention the iHME projection predicting ~ 700 too many deaths on the 19th?

By the way, the reason it always seems so "accurate" is because every few days they update it. They also remove their historical projection and put the actual deaths on the chart.

The model they released on 4/9 (the one where deaths first dropped to 60k) projected our peak at 1900 deaths and was down to 1400 yesterday.

Historical models here:

https://www.covid-projections.com/

Anyway, this model is bad because they pre-selected a bell curve with the peak lasting for a day or two and then dropping. We've been plateaued at around 26k - 32k new cases for the entire month of April.

The 4/9 model also had Spain and Italy at less than 50 daily deaths by now. They're both still around 500 deaths per day.

[Cooterpoot]

Or that LA is starting to label all deaths COVID so they get more money

I've already said it but this talk of hospitals getting a bunch of money is false. That's just not true. It doesn't even cover half the cost of COVID patients. Not even close. The only time it's actually close is if it's a medicare patient.

[Jack Lambert]

Or that LA is starting to label all deaths COVID so they get more money

I don't know if that is the case here but it is happening. I think the money is being given out equally to each state. I remember seeing somewhere NY was getting 12K per Corna case and Nebraska was receiving 300k per case. I do believe the virus has been with us a lot longer than reported. First of all I don't trust the Chinese and I think they were Knowingly letting their people fly from and to China with the virus everywhere around the world.

[confucius say]

I've already said it but this talk of hospitals getting a bunch of money is false. That's just not true. It doesn't even cover half the cost of COVID patients. Not even close. The only time it's actually close is if it's a medicare patient.

But they do get money to cover covid 19 treatment that is not otherwise covered, correct?

[msstate7]

By the way, the reason it always seems so "accurate" is because every few days they update it. They also remove their historical projection and put the actual deaths on the chart.

The model they released on 4/9 (the one where deaths first dropped to 60k) projected our peak at 1900 deaths and was down to 1400 yesterday.

Historical models here:

https://www.covid-projections.com/

Anyway, this model is bad because they pre-selected a bell curve with the peak lasting for a day or two and then dropping. We've been plateaued at around 26k - 32k new cases for the entire month of April.

The 4/9 model also had Spain and Italy at less than 50 daily deaths by now. They're both still around 500 deaths per day.

Adjusting it is a good point.

Has the number of tests daily remained the same throughout April? I honestly don't know. If testing has increased, the same amount of cases daily would be actually be a good thing though, right? If testing has remained the same, then not so much

[hacker]

Adjusting it is a good point.

Has the number of tests daily remained the same throughout April? I honestly don't know. If testing has increased, the same amount of cases daily would be actually be a good thing though, right? If testing has remained the same, then not so much

It's also plateaued. Dunno what happened on April 4

[Johnson85]

We have failed on testing on a national level. Getting tests should've been a top priority at the beginning and some states are still limited..... including Alabama. Some places may be stating they are doing state wide testing with drive thru testing blah blah blah. But it's a lie..... it's not easy to get a test unless you are admitted to a hospital or you for they're criteria. We have failed to isolate the virus. But it looks like the government has decided attempt at herd immunity. I don't know about that. Yes, some people are barely having a fever and a cough..... but if this thing gets in your lungs, it doesn't go away for a while. It ****ing sucks.

I think when the CDC 17ed up their test kits, the ship sailed on containment. We need a lot more tests now for that strategy, and also have to deal with the fact that just about every country needs tons of tests per population now.

[Jack Lambert]

I think when the CDC 17ed up their test kits, the ship sailed on containment. We need a lot more tests now for that strategy, and also have to deal with the fact that just about every country needs tons of tests per population now.

The test is useless. Just because I am negative today doesn't mean I will be negative tomorrow or the next day. With that said I don't care to know if I am positive or not. What I want to know have I had it.

[confucius say]

The test is useless. Just because I am negative today doesn't mean I will be negative tomorrow or the next day. With that said I don't care to know if I am positive or not. What I want to know have I had it.

Yea I think the importance of tests for the virus is minimal compared to the importance of a test that would tell you whether you've been exposed to it already. All the resources need to go towards antibody testing.

[Dawgfan77]

I've already said it but this talk of hospitals getting a bunch of money is false. That's just not true. It doesn't even cover half the cost of COVID patients. Not even close. The only time it's actually close is if it's a medicare patient.

Cares act
Under the legislation, hospitals can receive 15 percent additional funding from Medicare if they report patients who aren?t initially admitted to the hospital for COVID-19 but then while admitted either test positive initially or as ?secondary diagnosis.?

The bill states: ?For discharges occurring during the emergency period described in section 1135(g)(1)(B), in the case of a discharge that has a principal or secondary diagnosis of COVID?19, the Secretary shall increase the weighting factor for each diagnosis-related group (with such a principal or secondary diagnosis) by 15 percent.?

[Johnson85]

The test is useless. Just because I am negative today doesn't mean I will be negative tomorrow or the next day. With that said I don't care to know if I am positive or not. What I want to know have I had it.

If the number of cases is small enough, you can use the test to contain the spread, but now that it's pretty widespread, they're projecting we need something crazy like 21 million tests a day or week to start with now for that containment strategy. That's why I think the continued shutdown when we have excess hospital capacity is counterproductive. If the people I am reading know what their talking about (and I don't know enough ot really judge their credentials), we aren't going to get close to the testing capacity needed to contain the spread through testing and contact tracing, so we're just extending teh pain for mostly no benefit at this point.

[msstate7]

If the number of cases is small enough, you can use the test to contain the spread, but now that it's pretty widespread, they're projecting we need something crazy like 21 million tests a day or week to start with now for that containment strategy. That's why I think the continued shutdown when we have excess hospital capacity is counterproductive. If the people I am reading know what their talking about (and I don't know enough ot really judge their credentials), we aren't going to get close to the testing capacity needed to contain the spread through testing and contact tracing, so we're just extending teh pain for mostly no benefit at this point.

What's your best plan to get going? Open up and just tough it out or some sort of open/close/open deal?

[SheltonChoked]

Yea I think the importance of tests for the virus is minimal compared to the importance of a test that would tell you whether you've been exposed to it already. All the resources need to go towards antibody testing.

You need both

An antibody test to see who has had it, (and throetically can end social distancing)

And a test to see who has it now. So you can isolate them and contact trace.

By being able to isolate the people that have it, and release the immune, we can open back up faster.

Otherwise we are just yoyoing around overwhelming the medical system...