The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[chef dixon]

Could be a spike in cases but the advancement in treatment will help people recover quicker. Those that have a positive test SIP and go through treatment

No doubt. Test and shelter in place if positive is a must. I am a little less optimistic about a solid, effective treatment coming out though. Its not going to be hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin. People are already getting that in mass and a significant number of people are still getting hospitalized and dying. If you look at the history of viral respiratory illnesses in general, our treatments have been poor to mediocre at best. I don't see it changing with COVID-19, but would love to be wrong about that. Vaccine or herd immunity (which we are a good ways off from most likely) I think is where we are headed.

[msstate7]

If you are going to use the Santa Clara test and apply it across the country like Hacker did above to come up with 380k deaths, that study suggests that almost all of NY has come into contact with the virus (50 to 80 times the number of confirmed cases). That would make NY death rate minuscule.

If you go with the low end (50x) for the whole country, here's your new numbers...

35.5 million cases
New death rate: .0011

[hacker]

I literally said I'm not even questioning whether the deaths are legit. I just said the death rate would be inflated by just adding to the numerator with unconfirmed.

Ah, misunderstood your post.

From worldometers:

"Finally, since every probable death necessarily implies a probable case, logic mandates that the adjustment be made to both deaths and cases, and not only to deaths. We have now adjusted April 14, April 15, and current data for New York State and the United States accordingly."

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

[msstate7]

Ah, misunderstood your post.

From worldometers:

"Finally, since every probable death necessarily implies a probable case, logic mandates that the adjustment be made to both deaths and cases, and not only to deaths. We have now adjusted April 14, April 15, and current data for New York State and the United States accordingly."

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

Was it 1 case to 1 death? It should be more if so. I'm walking out door so didn't have time to read all

[Bass Chaser]

As we begin to do antibody testing, if someone is positive wouldn't that increase the number of cases?

[chef dixon]

As we begin to do antibody testing, if someone is positive wouldn't that increase the number of cases?

Would most likely indicate a past case that has resolved, so yes. From what I can tell we haven't nailed down the life cycle of this thing and how long the actual virus is active and shedding. If that time period is actually quite long, let's say 2 weeks or more, then it's possible the antibody test could be positive in a still active case.

[dantheman4248]

Why do I keep hearing that the key to reopening the country is widespread testing? Once you show sufficient symptoms to cause you to go get tested, wouldn't you 1) know to self isolate the same way as if you got a positive test result, and 2) have already infected people?

Seems to me the key to reopening would be the antibody test.

Getting these antibody tests out widespread for everyone would do wonders for accelerating the reopening of the economy.

The problem with the math is this isn't as lethal as it was once feared to be.

My most preliminary estimate was 500k dead and people said I was talking crazy in this very thread. Pretty sure you were one who questioned my self-proclaimed super-conservative estimate of 500k to be too lethal because of the death rate being too high. 2% vs. 1% (which was still 250k)

I don't agree with everything you say but i definitely agree that this is a huge step to getting things going in the right direction. I'm reaching out to some more folks I know to see what their doing with this and if similar results are being had. It is a reason for hope.

If only more people could realize that life is not black and white and that just because someone is on the opposite end of the political spectrum doesn't mean they can have good points, debates and discourse in this country would be infinitely better.

But you can't isolate everyone who "hasn't had it"... isolate those most vulnerable and in 2 weeks move on. You won't ever know who all had it or didn't. This thing isn't going away. And like the flu, some people just don't get it. With our wo the vaccine. Just like on the Navy ship where only 12.5 % of the people had it. And 60% of those were asymptomatic

Apologies, I should have expanded and clarified that sentence. When I said isolate, I meant in terms of knowing who they are and can be preventative for those who would be at severe risk and so they can know going forward and plan accordingly.

The antibody tests are very inaccurate. That's the problem right now. China is using them with no regard to their inaccuracies. They're giving a lot of false negatives and positives.

I was under the assumption that ours were not the same as China's.

there's a lot of "right" in this post... However, I believe in lieu of supporting those that don't or can't work, we oughta just cull em from the herd....

So we both agree that there is a problem; however, we have a difference in opinion on what the.. final solution should be.*** (Todd my joke was better.)

The CDC says it's recovery in 80% of infected. To me that's pretty damn good odds.

59% chance a family of four would lose 1 member or more.
74% chance a person would lose one of their parents/grandparents (given all 6 are alive)
99.6% chance at least 1 member in a group of 25 would die.

These are given that recovery rate and that all members in the sample get the virus. I'm sorry but that's absolutely horrible odds.

You're never going to convince a guy sitting in rural Mississippi that this is bad or any different than the flu if they already have their mind made up. It doesn't take much education to look at a place like NYC and realize what the virus is capable of in both lethality and it's ability to spread. The numbers speak for themselves. You can be thankful you live in a place that is unlikely to have that type of outbreak yet still respect it for what it is.

Speaking as someone living in a somewhat bigger city, this is so apparently a truth. Having lived in both it definitely makes it easier to recognize both sides and see the biases that each creates. "Walk a mile in the other's shoes."

It's been a trip watching the evolution of responses on this thread:

- "lol it's just China, something like that could never happen here"
- "it's just a media hoax"
- "it's just the flu"
- "oh well Italy's population is old and they're all smokers and every time they have family dinner they kiss and probably lay on top of each other. Crazy Italians!"
- "nothing to worry about, we won't have 10,000 cases by the summer"
- "it was just a nursing home in Seattle"

[US starts to lead the world in cases and deaths]
- "China lied and covered everything up! It's their fault!" (see first point above for irony)
- "WHO lied, we definitely would've been fine if it wasn't for them"
- "the numbers are inflated" (even though there are a shitload more people dying in general than the past 20 years)

[cases skyrocket to 30k per day, 2.5k deaths per day, but level off]
- "see it wasn't that bad! reopen america!"

[38000 dead in a month]
- "well it's actually not that lethal"


It's early and I haven't had my coffee but I'm sure I'm forgetting some.

You must spread rep around before giving to hacker again.

[Dawgfan77]

You bring nothin to this board and I guess I don't really Bring that much either
But your post are insufferable.

Truth is there is more positive going on than negative but keep living for the end of the world

Also as if it's relative to anything else

My mom died of a viral infection in 16 as a result of complications from a stroke

My father has underlying health issues

But we don't live in fear

[dantheman4248]

You bring nothin to this board and I guess I don't really Bring that much either
But your post are insufferable.

Truth is there is more positive going on than negative but keep living for the end of the world

Also as if it's relative to anything else

My mom died of a viral infection in 16 as a result of complications from a stroke

My father has underlying health issues

But we don't live in fear

You are the epitome of "this sign can't stop me because I can't read."

"More people are not dying from this than are. Stay positive. Not gonna live in fear."

You're the type to play Russian roulette without flinching. "There's 5 empty slots. Those are good odds."

[Dawgfan77]

You are the epitome of "this sign can't stop me because I can't read."

"More people are not dying from this than are. Stay positive. Not gonna live in fear."

You're the type to play Russian roulette without flinching. "There's 5 empty slots. Those are good odds."

I can read pretty well. But thanks. I'm educated and I travel for a living. And no if I believed everything the left and liberal and socialist like yourself (admitted by the way) posted or reporter then hell yeah i would be in just like you. Scared shitless!
But I read every article I can every day and I keep an eye out or try I should say on each and every treatment that's available

I'm not going to respond anymore to your post.

[defiantdog]

You are the epitome of "this sign can't stop me because I can't read."

"More people are not dying from this than are. Stay positive. Not gonna live in fear."

You're the type to play Russian roulette without flinching. "There's 5 empty slots. Those are good odds."

This virus sucks but it's not that bad man. It's not the damn bubonic plague.

[Jack Lambert]

This virus sucks but it's not that bad man. It's not the damn bubonic plague.

liberal want it to be as bad as possible. They see it as their only way of getting Biden into the white house.

[Commercecomet24]

This virus sucks but it's not that bad man. It's not the damn bubonic plague.

Hear, hear!

[BeardoMSU]

liberal want it to be as bad as possible. They see it as their only way of getting Biden into the white house.

Sigh...no, no they don't.

Are there assholes out in the world? Yes...of course, but the vast majority of people, on both sides of the aisle, want this to be over, with as little loss of life as possible. I love my wife and daughter, but being cooped up with them 24-7 is driving me nuts. Thank God for Xbox....

[Jack Lambert]

Sigh...no, no they don't.

Are there assholes out in the world? Yes...of course, but the vast majority of people, on both sides of the aisle, want this to be over, with as little loss of life as possible. I love my wife and daughter, but being cooped up with them 24-7 is driving me nuts. Thank God for Xbox....

That is where you are wrong. That hate for Trump is powerful.

[Todd4State]

My most preliminary estimate was 500k dead and people said I was talking crazy in this very thread. Pretty sure you were one who questioned my self-proclaimed super-conservative estimate of 500k to be too lethal because of the death rate being too high. 2% vs. 1% (which was still 250k)

Not sure why you're patting yourself on the back here when you were way off.

[BeardoMSU]

That is where you are wrong. That hate for Trump is powerful.

Bullshit.

People can rightfully question and criticize a President for the poor choices (or lack there of) he's made during a major disaster/event, but that doesn't mean they are wishing for the maximum loss of life just to "get him".

[Dawgfan77]

That is where you are wrong. That hate for Trump is powerful.

You are spot on. This shut down is 70-80% due to the trump hate couldn't impeach him
Trump shuts down China travel. Left: He is a vile person
Trump shuts down travel to Europe. He is a vile person
Ventilators?? We have an excess in some states
Trump pushed for stimulus. Dems wanted it shut down
Now pushing for more federal funding for small business.... left voted it down
Opening the country back up
Nope we are against it for 18 months unless your gonna pay us. Look at all the Dems wanting handouts for their states... those states are operating at a deficient
Now left are mad cause we don't have enough test....
It goes on and on
It's the left that's pushing what Dan the commi man wants. Fear fear fear. Don't let trump get re-elected
They have resulted in shutting down the country because of their hate of trump

[BeardoMSU]

You are spot on. This shut down is 70-80% due to the trump hate couldn't impeach him
Trump shuts down China travel. Left: He is a vile person
Trump shuts down travel to Europe. He is a vile person
Ventilators?? We have an excess in some states
Trump pushed for stimulus. Dems wanted it shut down
Now pushing for more federal funding for small business.... left voted it down
Opening the country back up
Nope we are against it for 18 months unless your gonna pay us. Look at all the Dems wanting handouts for their states... those states are operating at a deficient
Now left are mad cause we don't have enough test....
It goes on and on
It's the left that's pushing what Dan the commi man wants. Fear fear fear. Don't let trump get re-elected
They have resulted in shutting down the country because of their hate of trump

Lol, so now it's the "lefts fault" the country is shut down? The "left" and all its mighty Trump hate, influenced Trump and his administration to compel the shutdown of travel, non-essential business, and social distancing for the rest of the country? Do you think about how these words come together to form sentences before you spout them out?

[Dawgfan77]

Lol, so now it's the "lefts fault" the country is shut down? The "left" and all its mighty Trump hate, influenced Trump and his administration to compel the shutdown of travel, non-essential business, and social distancing for the rest of the country? Do you think about how these words come together to form sentences before you spout them out?

Yes to a certain extent I do feel this way. Believe what you want.

We had a influenza outbreak in 17-18. 60-80k died in America but we didn't shut down anything