The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[Dawgfan77]

The problem with the math is this isn't as lethal as it was once feared to be.

100% agree with you again! My caveat is this. If you have any underlying health issues then you should take precautions. If you are 65 and above you should take precautions. Thst said if you are healthy the. Yes by all means do what's best for you and your family. It's been my belief all along this has been an overreaction but i also unfortunately understand that some people were and still are fearful
Time to move forward with America and our economy may 1

[hacker]

The problem with the math is this isn't as lethal as it was once feared to be.

Uhh. You realize that I am using current death numbers right?

According to the study, 2.5% - 4% of us have the virus. According to real life, it's killed 38000 people.

So let's simplify everything and say 25% - 40% get the virus.

380,000 deaths

Pretty ****ing lethal.

And this is what you all are advocating for.

[Dawgfan77]

Uhh. You realize that I am using current death numbers right?

According to the study, 2.5% - 4% of us have the virus. According to real life, it's killed 38000 people.

So let's simplify everything and say 25% - 40% get the virus.

380,000 deaths

Pretty ****ing lethal.

I would like to see that death rate with those that are older and/or have underlying health issues. Not total hospitalizations, if you throw that number out then what's is the discharged numbers. Just looking for average age of death and those that had underlying health issues. From my understanding if your healthy it sucks but it's not life threatening. The CDC says it's recovery in 80% of infected. To me that's pretty damn good odds. Again Id take precautions if your older and have health issues. It seems to prey on those folks.

[hacker]

I would like to see that death rate with those that are older and/or have underlying health issues. Not total hospitalizations, if you throw that number out then what's is the discharged numbers. Just looking for average age of death and those that had underlying health issues. From my understanding if your healthy it sucks but it's not life threatening. The CDC says it's recovery in 80% of infected. To me that's pretty damn good odds. Again Id take precautions if your older and have health issues. It seems to prey on those folks.

1. We've known that it's much worse for older / underlying conditions. Two of the big underlying conditions are obesity and high blood pressure, a big issue in the south.
2. You realize 80% recovery rate means the other 20% died, right? Not sure quoting that number helps your argument.

[Dawgfan77]

1. We've known that it's much worse for older / underlying conditions. Two of the big underlying conditions are obesity and high blood pressure, a big issue in the south.
2. You realize 80% recovery rate means the other 20% died, right? Not sure quoting that number helps your argument.

Don't want to debate you again. All I'm saying is when people bring positive news here you throw some numbers out there that paint a very very grim picture. I'm sure some on here will agree with that.
Facts are this is not as lethal as it was once thought to be. And the more research that goes into the virus the more information that comes out that it's not as bad as once thought. Unless you have underlying health issues.
Again. I do appreciate your numbers and charts but overall this thing has been blown way out of proportion. We shut down an economic boom for a virus.

[msstate7]

1. We've known that it's much worse for older / underlying conditions. Two of the big underlying conditions are obesity and high blood pressure, a big issue in the south.
2. You realize 80% recovery rate means the other 20% died, right? Not sure quoting that number helps your argument.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/antib...-than-reported

https://www.yahoo.com/news/possible-...201204720.html

Your denominator is waaay off

[chef dixon]

Uhh. You realize that I am using current death numbers right?

According to the study, 2.5% - 4% of us have the virus. According to real life, it's killed 38000 people.

So let's simplify everything and say 25% - 40% get the virus.

380,000 deaths

Pretty ****ing lethal.

And this is what you all are advocating for.

You're never going to convince a guy sitting in rural Mississippi that this is bad or any different than the flu if they already have their mind made up. It doesn't take much education to look at a place like NYC and realize what the virus is capable of in both lethality and it's ability to spread. The numbers speak for themselves. You can be thankful you live in a place that is unlikely to have that type of outbreak yet still respect it for what it is.

[hacker]

It's been a trip watching the evolution of responses on this thread:

- "lol it's just China, something like that could never happen here"
- "it's just a media hoax"
- "it's just the flu"
- "oh well Italy's population is old and they're all smokers and every time they have family dinner they kiss and probably lay on top of each other. Crazy Italians!"
- "nothing to worry about, we won't have 10,000 cases by the summer"
- "it was just a nursing home in Seattle"

[US starts to lead the world in cases and deaths]
- "China lied and covered everything up! It's their fault!" (see first point above for irony)
- "WHO lied, we definitely would've been fine if it wasn't for them"
- "the numbers are inflated" (even though there are a shitload more people dying in general than the past 20 years)

[cases skyrocket to 30k per day, 2.5k deaths per day, but level off]
- "see it wasn't that bad! reopen america!"

[38000 dead in a month]
- "well it's actually not that lethal"


It's early and I haven't had my coffee but I'm sure I'm forgetting some.

[hacker]

You're never going to convince a guy sitting in rural Mississippi that this is bad or any different than the flu if they already have their mind made up. It doesn't take much education to look at a place like NYC and realize what the virus is capable of in both lethality and it's ability to spread. The numbers speak for themselves. You can be thankful you live in a place that is unlikely to have that type of outbreak yet still respect it for what it is.

Probably the truest post in the thread

[hacker]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/antib...-than-reported

https://www.yahoo.com/news/possible-...201204720.html

Your denominator is waaay off

Denominator for what? If he's talking about closed cases, you just subtract the recovery rate from 100

(I have no idea where he got his number from)

[msstate7]

You're never going to convince a guy sitting in rural Mississippi that this is bad or any different than the flu if they already have their mind made up. It doesn't take much education to look at a place like NYC and realize what the virus is capable of in both lethality and it's ability to spread. The numbers speak for themselves. You can be thankful you live in a place that is unlikely to have that type of outbreak yet still respect it for what it is.

NY is being hit hard... there's no doubt about that. Their death rate is inflated though. I won't even question whether the 3700 added deaths are legit. They added 3700 to the numerator, but added nothing to the denominator. Do you think if 3700 people died of covid19 without being tested that there were/are only 3700 untested, unconfirmed out there?

[msstate7]

Denominator for what? If he's talking about closed cases, you just subtract the recovery rate from 100

Bc the closed cases are only for those that were tested. There's a boatload that weren't tested bc they never got sick.

[confucius say]

Probably the truest post in the thread

He is right, MS makeup makes it unlikely that we will ever have a NY type breakout. No other state in America has had anything close to NY. Which is exactly why it should be taken on a state to state basis.

More importantly, Geographical makeup also makes any herd immunity test like the Stanford one localized. You have to look at that area's infection rate and death rate.

[chef dixon]

NY is being hit hard... there's no doubt about that. Their death rate is inflated though. I won't even question whether the 3700 added deaths are legit. They added 3700 to the numerator, but added nothing to the denominator. Do you think if 3700 people died of covid19 without being tested that there were/are only 3700 untested, unconfirmed out there?

Even if they added 3700 that were completely inappropriate, they were clearly getting hammered before that. Folks keep looking for a death rate in a constantly evolving situation with so many variables. You're not going to get that accurately but other metrics can help. The overall deaths in NY the last month v the every month the last 20 years is a super simple graph to interpret and to me is very telling.

[hacker]

Bc the closed cases are only for those that were tested. There's a boatload that weren't tested bc they never got sick.

How does that make my number wrong in the context of my post? Wouldn't it make his number wrong?

I was simply pointing out that an 80% recovery rate isn't something to be proud of because it means the other 20% died. If he said 85% recovered, I would've said 15% died.

[chef dixon]

He is right, MS makeup makes it unlikely that we will ever have a NY type breakout. No other state in America has had anything close to NY. Which is exactly why it should be taken on a state to state basis.

More importantly, Geographical makeup also makes any herd immunity test like the Stanford one localized. You have to look at that area's infection rate and death rate.

I also agree with that. Need to start opening parts slowly. There is going to be spike when we reopen even if it's 3 months from now without a vaccine. A reliable antibody test could also make it easier to do safer so hopefully that can be established.

[Dawgfan77]

I also agree with that. Need to start opening parts slowly. There is going to be spike when we reopen even if it's 3 months from now without a vaccine. A reliable antibody test could also make it easier to do safer so hopefully that can be established.

Could be a spike in cases but the advancement in treatment will help people recover quicker. Those that have a positive test SIP and go through treatment

[confucius say]

NY is being hit hard... there's no doubt about that. Their death rate is inflated though. I won't even question whether the 3700 added deaths are legit. They added 3700 to the numerator, but added nothing to the denominator. Do you think if 3700 people died of covid19 without being tested that there were/are only 3700 untested, unconfirmed out there?

If you are going to use the Santa Clara test and apply it across the country like Hacker did above to come up with 380k deaths, that study suggests that almost all of NY has come into contact with the virus (50 to 80 times the number of confirmed cases). That would make NY death rate minuscule.

[hacker]

NY is being hit hard... there's no doubt about that. Their death rate is inflated though. I won't even question whether the 3700 added deaths are legit. They added 3700 to the numerator, but added nothing to the denominator. Do you think if 3700 people died of covid19 without being tested that there were/are only 3700 untested, unconfirmed out there?

The medical examiners actually looked at the patients and put covid on those 3700 death certificates. Likely most of them died in their home before getting a test.

I'm sure it's not 100% accurate, but you wanna know how they come up with our official flu death stats?

"CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the numbers of influenza illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States"

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

I would think it's at LEAST as accurate as flu deaths.

[msstate7]

The medical examiners actually looked at the patients and put covid on those 3700 death certificates. Likely most of them died in their home before getting a test.

I'm sure it's not 100% accurate, but you wanna know how they come up with our official flu death stats?

"CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the numbers of influenza illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States"

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

I would think it's at LEAST as accurate as flu deaths.

I literally said I'm not even questioning whether the deaths are legit. I just said the death rate would be inflated by just adding to the numerator with unconfirmed.