The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[starkvegasdawg]

Yes, this is reasonable and that's the last time I put gas in my car too lol! I'm used to traveling and i've been in the office for a month now and my gas bill has gone way down lol! That being said I've lived and run a business in Laurel/Jones County for a long time and know most of the business owners here. Outside of Walmart, Lowes and Sonic most business owners I've talked to are down over 50% and climbing since this thing started. That's not just looking at it and saying "well I can't tell a difference here", it's a fact. That's not sustainable for very long at all. Some have shuttered for good already, and I'm sure the same scenario is playing out all over the country. I don't have the answers but I do know it's a fact if something doesn't give soon the virus won't devastate near as many families as the economic disaster.

And that's why I'm saying if we did one good SIP a month ago that had some teeth for 2-3 weeks we may have been able to get on top of this and start to be returning things to normal now. But we opted for a very limited phased approach not wanting to disrupt the economy and it caused it to drag out for months now and do 100x the damage to the economy as the one massive short term shutdown would have done.

[BrunswickDawg]

I drive by college apartments everyday and the parking lots are still 3/4 full. Traffic on 12 is still busy as ever. So it's still at a minimum no different than Christmas break or over the summer. There are still college kids here. Maybe it's just because they're all stuck in their apartment lease and staying because of that. I don't know. But I'm telling you there is barely any perceptible difference in activity in this town now compared to January.

That's also not what you said earlier. I've lived in Starkville in Summer it and it is a huge difference then the way it is during the middle of the school year. If you had said "it's about like Summer or Christmas Break" then I would have believed it. I'm also going off what my kid has said - she finally decided to come home last weekend.

[Commercecomet24]

And that's why I'm saying if we did one good SIP a month ago that had some teeth for 2-3 weeks we may have been able to get on top of this and start to be returning things to normal now. But we opted for a very limited phased approach not wanting to disrupt the economy and it caused it to drag out for months now and do 100x the damage to the economy as the one massive short term shutdown would have done.

We are just gonna have agree to disagree on this.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Starkvegasdog, you are so correct. Had we, as a nation jumped on this six weeks earlier, we would be coming out the other side this month. But.......
Buy the ticket, take the ride
HST

[Prediction? Pain.]

It probably depends where you live. We would be in peak tourist season here - it's dead. Most of the hotels have closed. When I have had to go into the office, traffic is noticeably less. There is still activity - but you can tell its maybe running at 1/4 normal right now. I last put gas in my car on March 10th.

We've got a mix in the Chattanooga area. Downtown Chattanooga is relatively sparse for a few reasons. First and foremost, the bedrock of the town's tourism industry, the Tennessee Aquarium (where three of my family members happen to work) has been closed for a month. Other attractions followed the Aquarium's lead shortly afterward, so other notable places that drew people in (the Hunter Art Museum, the Creative Discovery Museum (a kids' science and art center), the zoo, etc.) aren't open, either. Second, the restaurants and bars are all carryout only. And then third, even though most of the offices downtown are considered "essential" under Tennessee's (and Chattanooga's separate) stay-at-home orders, many (like me) are working from home much or all of the time.

At the same time, when I go out to pick up groceries or to the post-office, I see moderate-to-normal traffic at the stores I pass. Granted, small businesses and independent retailers are in a lot worse shape now, even if they're considered "essential" just because people aren't going out for stuff like that anymore even if they're allowed.

The closure of the tourism sector, which as I mentioned directly (and greatly) affects my and my immediate family's incomes, is a tough, tough thing. Even assuming our country adopts and implements an effective test-and-trace system that lets stuff start rolling close-ish to normal, I'm guessing that places like theaters, museums, aquariums, sports and concert venues, and anything else that requires close quarters and crowds are going to be the last to open.

[starkvegasdawg]

That's also not what you said earlier. I've lived in Starkville in Summer it and it is a huge difference then the way it is during the middle of the school year. If you had said "it's about like Summer or Christmas Break" then I would have believed it. I'm also going off what my kid has said - she finally decided to come home last weekend.

Thing is a lot of kids don't go home now. Summer is barely a difference in kids based due to all the summer school. I've lived here over 10 years. Back when I first moved here summer was like a ghost town with the kids gone, but the last 4-5 that dramatically changed. Now it's not much difference.

[Political Hack]

There's no debate. Had we started social distancing earlier, there would've been fewer people infected and fewer deaths. We also would've come out of the first wave more quickly and saved more resources for future waves. It would've also given us more time (started earlier & healthcare systems wouldn't have been overwhelmed so suddenly) to begin researching treatments and vaccines. This was a massive failure by our leaders. We knew the impacts. Knew what was coming. Knew we couldn't defeat it. And we ignored it because we were worried about the stock market taking a hit and the impacts on the coming election. It's criminal.

[Dawgology]

Times like this really highlight the need for drive-thru daiquiri bars and also the drive-thru coffee shops where the barista girls wear lingerie. Just sayin'...

[Cooterpoot]

And that's why I'm saying if we did one good SIP a month ago that had some teeth for 2-3 weeks we may have been able to get on top of this and start to be returning things to normal now. But we opted for a very limited phased approach not wanting to disrupt the economy and it caused it to drag out for months now and do 100x the damage to the economy as the one massive short term shutdown would have done.

Wouldn't have changed much at all.

[KB21]

And that's why I'm saying if we did one good SIP a month ago that had some teeth for 2-3 weeks we may have been able to get on top of this and start to be returning things to normal now. But we opted for a very limited phased approach not wanting to disrupt the economy and it caused it to drag out for months now and do 100x the damage to the economy as the one massive short term shutdown would have done.

I honestly do not believe that would have made that much of a difference. This virus has been here longer than most believe. I'm convinced I was seeing people with this virus back in January, and perhaps even some in December. There was something that people were coming in for that was influenza like that kept testing negative for influenza. These people were taking two to three weeks to get better. I feel it is very likely that you could double the amount of positive cases that we have right now if you took into account how many have this that are asymptomatic. Because of this, I feel like we are close if not past the point of herd immunity.

[Turfdawg67]

Wouldn't have changed much at all.

Yes it would've.

[deadheaddawg]

And that's why I'm saying if we did one good SIP a month ago that had some teeth for 2-3 weeks we may have been able to get on top of this and start to be returning things to normal now. But we opted for a very limited phased approach not wanting to disrupt the economy and it caused it to drag out for months now and do 100x the damage to the economy as the one massive short term shutdown would have done.

yep.

[dawgday166]

There's no debate. Had we started social distancing earlier, there would've been fewer people infected and fewer deaths. We also would've come out of the first wave more quickly and saved more resources for future waves. It would've also given us more time (started earlier & healthcare systems wouldn't have been overwhelmed so suddenly) to begin researching treatments and vaccines. This was a massive failure by our leaders. We knew the impacts. Knew what was coming. Knew we couldn't defeat it. And we ignored it because we were worried about the stock market taking a hit and the impacts on the coming election. It's criminal.

As I've said before ... Both sides of the aisle missed on this. And you might argue we as a country (Obama did it too) do things to prop up the stock market. But this ain't about that. It ain't easy and there are some difficult trade offs to consider before you tell the majority of the country to just go home and sit on their ass for 2 or 3 months. Of course dano would love it if only he had UBI *****

Trump really acted before anyone on the other side was ready to act themselves. I am not a personal fan of Trump's but he was ahead of Pelosi, Cuomo, etc.

ETA: Oh, and BTW, there is that little thingy called The Constitution that makes things like this somewhat difficult to address also. Unless of course you prefer true dictatorships ... but that may also be the case ONLY IF your guy is the dictator.

[hacker]

A few days back in another thread, I linked to an article from the MIT Technology Review about the "reopening" of the US economy from the perspective of prominent economists. The premise of the article was that choosing between economic viability and human life is a false choice. The two are inextricably intertwined and putting one above the other would lead to ruinous results. Here's the link again if anyone's interested:

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...e-can-do-both/

The gist of the author's argument is that the most prudent path forward is to implement a robust, national test-and-trace system that, coupled with other remedial measures, will allow the health to work and the sick to be immediately isolated.

That aggressive test-and-trace approach is part of what has made Taiwan such a success story so far. If you haven't read up on Taiwan, here's an article from the Journal of the American Medical Association that gives a summary of its efforts and here's a 7-minute news clip about the same thing, both of which are from March.

With a population of over 23,000,000 -- millions of which take the 80-mile trip to and from China regularly and repeatedly -- and a population density that is top ten in the world and would rank 1st among US states, Taiwan to date has only 395 cases of COVID 19 and 6 deaths. They've had between zero and five new cases each day for the past week. For a democracy with a relatively solid, modern economy, that's pretty damn impressive.

But just for a comparison, let's look at some states in the US. New Jersey, which has the largest population density of any state in the US (though it's still lower than Taiwan's) and less than half of Taiwan's total population, has had nearly 69,000 COVID-19 cases and 2,805 deaths. My state of Tennessee has one-tenth the population density of Taiwan and less than a third of Taiwan's population and we've got more than 10 times the cases (5,823) and 20 times the deaths (124). Hell, my county alone has nearly twice as many deaths as the entire country of Taiwan with only 370,000 people and a population density less than half of Taiwan's.

The trace-and-test thing is something that healthcare people are pushing for too, at least in Tennessee. Vandy's Medical Center put out a short piece a week or so ago about the flattening of the curve and the potential dangerous of going back to normal without a much more robust system of testing and tracing in the state.

Another interesting tidbit from the MIT article was about some economists' study of the 1918 flu pandemic's economic consequences. I haven't read the entire study (it's 50 pages long), but here are the two main conclusions from the study and a little more insight from the MIT article:





Sorry for the length of the post. I was encouraged to hear people that have forgotten a crap-ton more than economics than I'll ever know talk about economic and physical health as two sides of the same coin instead of mutually exclusive. Figured some of y'all might, too.

Post more, I enjoyed the read

edit: You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Prediction? Pain. again.

[Jack Lambert]

I paid my balance for season tickets today.

[yjnkdawg]

This is a pretty long video, but to sum it up, the lack of adequate Vitamin D could possibly be one factor in why there is a demographics' disparity in Covid-19 cases and deaths. From Dr. John Campbell.

[msstate7]

Blog for re-opening...

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...-the-curve.php

[Todd4State]

I honestly do not believe that would have made that much of a difference. This virus has been here longer than most believe. I'm convinced I was seeing people with this virus back in January, and perhaps even some in December. There was something that people were coming in for that was influenza like that kept testing negative for influenza. These people were taking two to three weeks to get better. I feel it is very likely that you could double the amount of positive cases that we have right now if you took into account how many have this that are asymptomatic. Because of this, I feel like we are close if not past the point of herd immunity.

That's what I'm seeing too. I agree 100%. I don't know if we have immunity or not but we're probably closer than a lot to people realize.

Elective orthopedic surgeries were declared illegal where I live so my hospital transferred me right to the front lines. Kind of makes me like a pirate. LOL.

[Todd4State]

Blog for re-opening...

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...-the-curve.php

Very good article and also in line with what I am seeing. When I walked around my hospital I noticed a LOT of empty beds. And unless COVID makes you invisible and we don't know it I'm going to assume we aren't at capacity. Also our number of patients on the vent where I work is almost below 90. It was over 110 last week. Normally I believe we're around 40 if I had to estimate so still not out of the woods but signs of improvement.

[dantheman4248]

You can not take from one and give to another and expect everyone's hardships to be solved. UBI is not a solution to the problem.

I can guarantee you that you won't see unemployment drop until September at the earliest, regardless of how quickly the economy rebounds. The reason is because the coronavirus stimulus package pays people a weekly payment equal to one-half of the state average unemployment benefit plus $600. You really think people are going to give that up to go back to work to earn less money????

There's not a singular thing that will solve the problem, not when it's the entire system being the problem. And my point with UBI is not to be only for the unemployed. You implement it for everyone. Basic across the board. This eliminates the need for a "minimum wage" as we will have established in our society the minimum standard of living needed. This would allow the stoppage of the 40 hour work week and increase productivity levels in workers as now you don't necessarily need to work all week to hold a job. Maybe you work 10 hrs a week at some restaurant job. Keeps happiness levels up. Small businesses don't have to pay a minimum wage so labor costs could go down. There's a lot of moving parts to it. But to think that people would be content being lazy and doing nothing all day (as UBI would only afford you the minimum) would cause people not to work... do you not see how crazy people are going currently?

There's obviously a lot of moving parts and not a magic cure-all. There can't be when we can't regulate other countries economies against our own so we can't force a business to not go to overseas manufacturing easily. (for instance) But there are some good starting points to fixing society and making a better tomorrow for everyone. You can't tell me we don't have the money when we constantly spend trillions to bail out big businesses under republicans who have the most lenient taxes.