The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[Commercecomet24]

I think the monstrous spike in unemployment numbers disagrees with this statement.

Yes, unfortunately. Some businesses have already shuttered for good and won't be coming back and I expect we see many more in the coming weeks. Sad.

[msstate7]

Our peak was projected for April 21 a few weeks ago, so I don't see us opening back up right now.

And we shouldn't, but I'm very much against the ones that think we should stay shut down till a vaccine is created. We have to open back up most of the country probably sometime in May

[BrunswickDawg]

You can not take from one and give to another and expect everyone's hardships to be solved. UBI is not a solution to the problem.

I can guarantee you that you won't see unemployment drop until September at the earliest, regardless of how quickly the economy rebounds. The reason is because the coronavirus stimulus package pays people a weekly payment equal to one-half of the state average unemployment benefit plus $600. You really think people are going to give that up to go back to work to earn less money????

I think it says a lot more about how we treat our workforce and a lot about who we "think" has been impacted. The thing is the people who are unemployed by this aren't just the minimum wage workforce - a whole lot of them are still are flipping burgers, stocking shelves, cleaning stores, and cutting grass. It's people like my wife - a massage therapist and yoga studio owner - who makes about $50k a year. That job literally evaporated overnight a month ago. So, her job, her 15 instructors, and the 3 other therapists are the ones claiming UI right now because they are all independent contractors who "share" this business as a co-op. Not a single one has gotten a UI check yet - because Georgia is still trying to figure this out (oh, and the money didn't actually become available until this week). Still waiting on UI, still waiting on EIPL, still waiting on PPP. And that is a lot like a shit ton of people who are unemployed right now. You got a whole lot of independent contractors, gig workers, commission sales people, who are the ones not working because of this.

[starkvegasdawg]

I think the monstrous spike in unemployment numbers disagrees with this statement.

I never said a lot of people aren't out of work. They are. But compared to the number they have been deemed essential, it is a drop in the bucket. Just drive through town and look at how many places are still open.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

And we shouldn't, but I'm very much against the ones that think we should stay shut down till a vaccine is created. We have to open back up most of the country probably sometime in May

It seems like a pipe dream to me that we will have a safe and effective vaccine made within the next 18 months. Let alone be able to mass produce it on a level that we can vaccinate a significant amount of the population with it.

[Dawgfan77]

I never said a lot of people aren't out of work. They are. But compared to the number they have been deemed essential, it is a drop in the bucket. Just drive through town and look at how many places are still open.

You might be a little out of touch in this one. Some places maybe be open. Like restaurants for take out only. Well what about the wait staff and bartenders? Some essential business are open but have to cut workers due to cost as business is down.
Don't just look at what's open look beyond the doors

[Commercecomet24]

You might be a little out of touch in this one. Some places maybe be open. Like restaurants for take out only. Well what about the wait staff and bartenders? Some essential business are open but have to cut workers due to cost as business is down.
Don't just look at what's open look beyond the doors

Yeah, businesses may be open but they've cut back on staff, laid off and/are running small crews with reduced hours and are not doing near the business. It's why businesses are losing millions upon millions of dollars each day.

[Todd4State]

It seems like a pipe dream to me that we will have a safe and effective vaccine made within the next 18 months. Let alone be able to mass produce it on a level that we can vaccinate a significant amount of the population with it.

By the time there is one it will probably be useless.

[hacker]

I never said a lot of people aren't out of work. They are. But compared to the number they have been deemed essential, it is a drop in the bucket. Just drive through town and look at how many places are still open.

I wouldn't be able to tell the difference in my area if I didn't know better.

[starkvegasdawg]

I wouldn't be able to tell the difference in my area if I didn't know better.

That's the point I'm trying to make. For those that disagree with this do me a favor next time you're out. Doesn't matter what town you live in. Next time you're going somewhere if you didn't know there was a SIP order due to a horrible disease wreaking havoc, would you be able to tell anything was amiss or would it just look like a typical Wednesday with people going about their normal routines? If there was a true SIP order that had enough teeth behind it to help contain this outbreak, you'd drive into town and it'd look like a Children of the Corn scene wondering where everybody is.

[Commercecomet24]

I wouldn't be able to tell the difference in my area if I didn't know better.

Maybe where y'all live but not here. There's a substantial difference.

[Dawgfan77]

That's the point I'm trying to make. For those that disagree with this do me a favor next time you're out. Doesn't matter what town you live in. Next time you're going somewhere if you didn't know there was a SIP order due to a horrible disease wreaking havoc, would you be able to tell anything was amiss or would it just look like a typical Wednesday with people going about their normal routines? If there was a true SIP order that had enough teeth behind it to help contain this outbreak, you'd drive into town and it'd look like a Children of the Corn scene wondering where everybody is.

When you drive by a restaurant a movie theater what a hotel and staff. I see a lot of issues

[starkvegasdawg]

Maybe where y'all live but not here. There's a substantial difference.

I know here in Starkville you can't tell a difference.

[Commercecomet24]

I know here in Starkville you can't tell a difference.

You can here. Parking lots empty, traffic down, business laying people off, shuttered for good, reduced staff and hours and it's a fact, and it's not just here. Why do you think businesses are losing money right now? Only one reason, no business!

[Prediction? Pain.]

A few days back in another thread, I linked to an article from the MIT Technology Review about the "reopening" of the US economy from the perspective of prominent economists. The premise of the article was that choosing between economic viability and human life is a false choice. The two are inextricably intertwined and putting one above the other would lead to ruinous results. Here's the link again if anyone's interested:

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...e-can-do-both/

The gist of the author's argument is that the most prudent path forward is to implement a robust, national test-and-trace system that, coupled with other remedial measures, will allow the health to work and the sick to be immediately isolated.

That aggressive test-and-trace approach is part of what has made Taiwan such a success story so far. If you haven't read up on Taiwan, here's an article from the Journal of the American Medical Association that gives a summary of its efforts and here's a 7-minute news clip about the same thing, both of which are from March.

With a population of over 23,000,000 -- millions of which take the 80-mile trip to and from China regularly and repeatedly -- and a population density that is top ten in the world and would rank 1st among US states, Taiwan to date has only 395 cases of COVID 19 and 6 deaths. They've had between zero and five new cases each day for the past week. For a democracy with a relatively solid, modern economy, that's pretty damn impressive.

But just for a comparison, let's look at some states in the US. New Jersey, which has the largest population density of any state in the US (though it's still lower than Taiwan's) and less than half of Taiwan's total population, has had nearly 69,000 COVID-19 cases and 2,805 deaths. My state of Tennessee has one-tenth the population density of Taiwan and less than a third of Taiwan's population and we've got more than 10 times the cases (5,823) and 20 times the deaths (124). Hell, my county alone has nearly twice as many deaths as the entire country of Taiwan with only 370,000 people and a population density less than half of Taiwan's.

The trace-and-test thing is something that healthcare people are pushing for too, at least in Tennessee. Vandy's Medical Center put out a short piece a week or so ago about the flattening of the curve and the potential dangerous of going back to normal without a much more robust system of testing and tracing in the state.

Another interesting tidbit from the MIT article was about some economists' study of the 1918 flu pandemic's economic consequences. I haven't read the entire study (it's 50 pages long), but here are the two main conclusions from the study and a little more insight from the MIT article:

First, the pandemic leads to a sharp and persistent fall in real economic activity. We find negative effects on manufacturing activity, the stock of durable goods, and bank assets, which suggests that the pandemic depresses economic activity through both supply and demand-side effects. Second, cities that implemented more rapid and forceful non-pharmaceutical health interventions [like business and school closures] do not experience worse downturns. In contrast, evidence on manufacturing activity and bank assets suggests that the economy performed better in areas with more aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions after the pandemic.

Verner [one of the authors of the study] points to the fates of two cities in particular: Cleveland and Philadelphia. Cleveland acted aggressively, closing schools and banning gatherings early in the outbreak and keeping the restrictions in place for far longer. Philadelphia was slower to react and maintained restrictions for about half as long. Not only did far fewer people die in Cleveland (600 per 100,000, compared with 900 per 100,000 in Philadelphia), but its economy fared better and was much stronger in the year after the outbreak. By 1919 job growth was 5% there, while in Philadelphia it was around 2%.

Today's economy is much different -- it's geared more toward services, and far less toward manufacturing than it was 100 years ago. Nevertheless, the cities' stories are suggestive. Verner says that even a conservative interpretation of the data suggests there is "no evidence that interventions are worse for the economy." And most likely they had a significant benefit. "A pandemic is so destructive," he says. "Ultimately any policy to mitigate it is going to be good for the economy."

Sorry for the length of the post. I was encouraged to hear people that have forgotten a crap-ton more than economics than I'll ever know talk about economic and physical health as two sides of the same coin instead of mutually exclusive. Figured some of y'all might, too.

[confucius say]

I know here in Starkville you can't tell a difference.

Maybe it is a good thing that people are still kind of out. If the goal is to just spread out when people come into contact with the virus (as opposed to stopping completely the spread of the virus), maybe it is helpful that people are gradually coming into contact with it.

[BrunswickDawg]

I know here in Starkville you can't tell a difference.

So you can't tell that 20,000 students aren't in town? I call BS on that one

[BrunswickDawg]

You can here. Parking lots empty, traffic down, business laying people off, shuttered for good, reduced staff and hours and it's a fact, and it's not just here. Why do you think businesses are losing money right now? Only one reason, no business!

It probably depends where you live. We would be in peak tourist season here - it's dead. Most of the hotels have closed. When I have had to go into the office, traffic is noticeably less. There is still activity - but you can tell its maybe running at 1/4 normal right now. I last put gas in my car on March 10th.

[Commercecomet24]

It probably depends where you live. We would be in peak tourist season here - it's dead. Most of the hotels have closed. When I have had to go into the office, traffic is noticeably less. There is still activity - but you can tell its maybe running at 1/4 normal right now. I last put gas in my car on March 10th.

Yes, this is reasonable and that's the last time I put gas in my car too lol! I'm used to traveling and i've been in the office for a month now and my gas bill has gone way down lol! That being said I've lived and run a business in Laurel/Jones County for a long time and know most of the business owners here. Outside of Walmart, Lowes and Sonic most business owners I've talked to are down over 50% and climbing since this thing started. That's not just looking at it and saying "well I can't tell a difference here", it's a fact. That's not sustainable for very long at all. Some have shuttered for good already, and I'm sure the same scenario is playing out all over the country. I don't have the answers but I do know it's a fact if something doesn't give soon the virus won't devastate near as many families as the economic disaster.

[starkvegasdawg]

So you can't tell that 20,000 students aren't in town? I call BS on that one

I drive by college apartments everyday and the parking lots are still 3/4 full. Traffic on 12 is still busy as ever. So it's still at a minimum no different than Christmas break or over the summer. There are still college kids here. Maybe it's just because they're all stuck in their apartment lease and staying because of that. I don't know. But I'm telling you there is barely any perceptible difference in activity in this town now compared to January.