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Originally Posted by
hacker
Me too, especially when you consider the asymptomatic/mild cases that aren't being detected. But it's still the best data we have at this point.
But just keep in mind, SARS had a 10% death rate, MERS > 30%. COVID is in the same family.
Also in the same family as a common cold. This is bad, but we have some decent outer bounds on the potential death rate absent improved treatments and absent a mutation or some increased risk present outside of Asia.
It's probably going to be somewhere between .5% to 1.2% with current treatment, and then maybe as high as 3.5% if hospitals are overwhelmed and the experiences of the hardest hit countries become typical. Pretty much all of those rates are awful with how contagious this is, with 3.5% being maybe the biggest catastrophe in modern history? But unless we find out obesity is a death knell when combined with COVID-19, I am optimistic we will end up around that 1% number or less (which is still awful and will be a generation defining event unlike anything since probably WWII, or maybe Vietnam depending on how you look at it).
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