The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[Dawgology]

Interesting best guess for Symptomatic Case Fatality Rate.

Overall has a best guess of .4%. For
under 49, it's .05%
50-64 its .2%
65+ it's 1.3%.

With their best guess of 35% of cases being asymptomatic (and assuming they are evenly spaced out, which is probably a bad assumption), that would be

Overall - .26%
under 49 - .0325%
50-64 - .13%
65+ - .845%

Yes, and keep in mind that is not taking into account May or June stats. Mortality numbers continue to drop as case numbers go up. New reports indicate that it may be more like 45%+ are asymptomatic.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0612172208.htm

As I stated several months back, when a new/novel virus emerges those that are the most susceptible to such a thing (given a lack of treatements, vaccine, or herd immunity) will die in larger numbers. Thus, you will get a large spike over the first couple months and then rates will normalize as it becomes endemic to the population. This is what we are seeing now. Case numbers are rising due to increased testing, people congregating,and lack of vaccine. This will normalize over time with or without a vaccine. It (like the flue) is a single stranded RNA virus that leads to upper and lower respiratory infections and pneumonia and they are both spread through surfaces (minor) and airborne transmission (major). Most of the assays being created now are to test for Flu A, Flu B, and Covid-19.

Still a dangerous disease and vaccine will be key but it is definitely not the end of the world as we know it as many news outlets were reporting (and continue to).

[Gutter Cobreh]

Yes, and keep in mind that is not taking into account May or June stats. Mortality numbers continue to drop as case numbers go up. New reports indicate that it may be more like 45%+ are asymptomatic.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0612172208.htm

As I stated several months back, when a new/novel virus emerges those that are the most susceptible to such a thing (given a lack of treatements, vaccine, or herd immunity) will die in larger numbers. Thus, you will get a large spike over the first couple months and then rates will normalize as it becomes endemic to the population. This is what we are seeing now. Case numbers are rising due to increased testing, people congregating,and lack of vaccine. This will normalize over time with or without a vaccine. It (like the flue) is a single stranded RNA virus that leads to upper and lower respiratory infections and pneumonia and they are both spread through surfaces (minor) and airborne transmission (major). Most of the assays being created now are to test for Flu A, Flu B, and Covid-19.

Still a dangerous disease and vaccine will be key but it is definitely not the end of the world as we know it as many news outlets were reporting (and continue to).

The mortality rate dropping is huge! That fact can't be stated enough.

A virus is only effective as its transmittal rate. Contrary to what I've read, I still think that it's either mutated or warmer temps have made it less lethal. What are your thoughts for the fall/winter months with this still in circulation? Do you think we see what we're seeing now or does it regain its punch that we saw in NYC?

[Dawgology]

The mortality rate dropping is huge! That fact can't be stated enough.

A virus is only effective as its transmittal rate. Contrary to what I've read, I still think that it's either mutated or warmer temps have made it less lethal. What are your thoughts for the fall/winter months with this still in circulation? Do you think we see what we're seeing now or does it regain its punch that we saw in NYC?

It’ll come back stronger in the cooler less humid months just like the flu does. I don’t think the mortality rate will ever be as high as it first was but that goes back to what I posted before about the initial spike. About 100,000 people die from the flu or flu related illnesses each year in the US so I can see it being about like that each year especially after a seasonal vaccine is created. Those that are older or with compromised immune systems will always be at risk though even with a vaccine. Basically there will be a combo flu a, flu b, covid vaccine you will want to get each year to be safe.

[Todd4State]

It’ll come back stronger in the cooler less humid months just like the flu does. I don’t think the mortality rate will ever be as high as it first was but that goes back to what I posted before about the initial spike. About 100,000 people die from the flu or flu related illnesses each year in the US so I can see it being about like that each year especially after a seasonal vaccine is created. Those that are older or with compromised immune systems will always be at risk though even with a vaccine. Basically there will be a combo flu a, flu b, covid vaccine you will want to get each year to be safe.

I totally agree with everything that you've posted.